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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality among adults with diabetes. Understanding the prevalence and trends in hospitalizations for CVD complications in this population is crucial for informing healthcare strategies and interventions. Aim: This study aimed to analyze the prevalence and hospitalization rates of CVD complications among adults with diabetes using data from the USDSS database. Methods: This retrospective study analyzed USDSS database data from 2000 to 2020, exploring CVD complications' prevalence and hospitalization patterns in adults with diabetes.The study explored prevalence rates of major CVD complications, including heart disease and stroke, alongside demographic factors like age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education level. Hospitalization rates for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and stroke were calculated. Temporal trends were analyzed graphically, and statistical tests (chi-square, ANOVA) with a significance level of p<0.05 were conducted. Results: The analysis revealed notable temporal trends in major heart disease prevalence and stroke rates among adults with diabetes. Over the study period, major heart disease incidence increased from 2.7 in 2000 to 4.9 in 2022, with an average of 4.22. Prevalence ranged from its lowest at 18.2% in 2014 to its highest at 23.7% in 2001, with the latest at 17.4% in 2022. Stroke cases rose steadily from 1.1 in 2000 to 2.1 in 2022, with the latest prevalence at 7.4%. Subgroup analysis revealed variations across gender, age, race, and education levels. Hospitalization rates for CVD declined from 78.6 per 1,000 in 2000 to 46 per 1,000 in 2020. Rates for ischemic heart disease decreased from 32.2 per 1,000 to 10.2 per 1,000, heart failure from 20.7 per 1,000 to 15 per 1,000, and stroke from 9.4 per 1,000 to 8.4 per 1,000. Conclusion: This study provides valuable insights into the prevalence and hospitalization trends of cardiovascular disease complications among adults with diabetes in the United States. The findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions to reduce the burden of CVD in this population.
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Introduction: The study discusses the uneven impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across various demographic groups in the US, focusing on Boone County, Missouri. The aim is to identify any correlation between factors such as gender, age, ethnicity, and religious beliefs with COVID-19 infection rates over a span of 22 months (from March 15, 2020, to December 2, 2021). Methods: The research methodology involves time trend analysis graphs for each demographic group, benchmarked against significant events like vaccine launches, the introduction of the delta variant, vaccine boosters, and the arrival of the omicron variant. Results: Preliminary findings suggest that males and certain racial groups, including Black or African Americans and the “All-Other” category, exhibit higher COVID-19 positivity rates throughout these defined periods. The study also delves into unique patterns among demographic groups during various phases of the pandemic. Conclusion: Our results supported the hypothesis that males and minority races such as Black or African Americans and All-Other are more likely to have a higher COVID-19 positivity rate across our defined epochs.
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@#Objective To analyze the trend of the hemagglutinin(HA) and ovalbumin contents in the lot release of influenza virus split vaccines in 2021,and evaluate the quality and quality control level of the vaccines.Methods The HA and ovalbumin content data of influenza virus split vaccines from two domestic enterprises in 2021 were collected and collated. The mean value and standard deviation were calculated according to the first 40 batches of data of the enterprise in the year,and the warning limit and action limit were established. The trend analysis of the above indexes was carried out to evaluate the stability and consistency of the product quality of the enterprise. Statistical data comparison and consistency analysis were made between the test results of the batch inspected by the lot release institution and the results of the enterprise.Results Through the retrospective data analysis of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines from two vaccine enterprises A and B,it was found that the content of H1N1 subtype HA and ovalbumin in the two enterprises and the content of Bv HA in the B enterprise had out of trend(OOT)situations,while the trend of other items was stable. The results of paired student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the samples inspected by the lot release institution showed that except Bv subtype HA(t = 1. 094 and 0. 742 respectively)and ovalbumin(w =-64 and 36 respectively)contents showed no statistically significant difference(P > 0. 05),the HA contents of H1N1(t = 3. 862,w = 232),H3N2(t = 8. 225 and3. 473 respectively)and By(t = 5. 616 and 4. 934 respectively)of the two enterprises had significant differences(P <0. 05). The results of enterprises were generally higher than the lot release institution. Bland-Altman test analysis found that the consistency between the test data of enterprise A's HA content and the data of the lot release institution was better than that of enterprise B.Conclusion The stability and consistency of data trends of active ingredients and main impurity ingredients of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine batches in 2021 were generally good. The trend analysis can identify potential problems in vaccine production,and enterprises should carefully implement trend analysis and effectively monitor the product quality of vaccines.
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【Objective】 This study endeavors to introduce the statistical process control (SPC) method to analyze the quality control index concerning red blood cells in additive solution with leukocytes reduced, with the aspiration to advance the effective utilization of blood quality control data, thereby providing empirical foundations for the continual enhancement of blood quality. 【Methods】 Between 2020 and 2022, test data pertaining to the quality control index of red blood cells in additive solution with leukocytes reduced were amassed from six blood stations in Chongqing area. Utilizing Minitab software, the SPC analysis was carried out, p-control charts were delineated, the non-conformance rates of each quality control index along with their 95% confidence intervals were computed, as well as the Process Capability Index (Z value). 【Results】 In accordance with the Whole Blood and Blood Components Quality Requirements, the appraisal of the quality control indexes for red blood cells in additive solution with leukocytes reduced manifested a conformity rate of 100% for appearance, end-of-storage hemolysis rate and sterility test. Nonetheless, the conformity rates for volume, hemoglobin, hematocrit and residual leukocytes did not attain 100%, albeit all were ≥75%. Through the employment of binomial distribution-based p-control charts, the controlled state of the production process was discerned. Although the overarching conformity rate satisfied the national standard stipulations, it was discerned that there were out-of-control points concerning volume, hemoglobin, hematocrit, and residual leukocytes across different institutions, exhibiting palpable trends. The non-conformance rates of all quality control indexes were less than 25%, yet at a 95% confidence level, the residual leukocyte counts from institutions B, C, E, and F did not adhere to the stipulations (exceeding 25%). By architecting the ability evaluation index Z value for count data process capability analysis, it was unveiled that the volume of institution E, the hematocrit of institutions B, C, and F, and the residual leukocytes Z values of all six blood collection and supply institutions were below 2, hinting at avenues for amelioration. 【Conclusion】 The SPC method anchored in binomial distribution exhibits substantial application merit in blood component quality management, facilitating real-time surveillance of blood collection, preparation, and storage procedures.
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Objective @#To analyze the incidence characteristics and trends in pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture , before and after the epidemic , and to provide a reference basis for the formulation and evaluation of tuberculosis prevention and control measures in the Hotan prefecture . @*Methods @#The Hotan prefecture ’s pulmonary tuberculosis incidence data was collected between 2015 and 2021 . Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) model were established to explore the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis , as well as the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures in Xinjiang on the incidence trend in Hotan , respectively. Furthermore , an analysis of variations in incidence among different age and gender subgroups was carried out. @*Results@#The results of the JPR model showed that from 2015 to 2021 , the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture initially increased and then decreased , with a turning point appearing in December 2018 . The incidence rate in males was slightly higher than that in females , and the turning point and incidence trend were consistent with the overall trend . Among all age subgroups , those ≥60 age group had the highest incidence rate , with the trend also showing an initial increase followed by a decrease . A turning point in the incidence rate for the under 18 age group appeared in June 2021 , yet the trend was not statistically significant (P > 0. 05) .The turning points in the 19 - 59 age group and in those aged ≥60 were consistent with the overall trend . The results of the ITS model showed that the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in the Hotan prefecture significantly decreased since January 2020 , dropping from 319. 28 per 100 000 in 2019 to 155 . 88 per 100 000 in 2021 , a decrease of 51 . 16% year-on-year , with a monthly average reduction of 0. 049 per 100 000 .@*Conclusion @# In 2018 ,Xinjiang province integrated tuberculosis screening into the universal health checkup for the entire population ,which led to the identification of numerous cases of tuberculosis . In the Hotan prefecture , the reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis peaked in December 2018 and then started to decline . Under the impact of COVID-19 isolation measures in Xinjiang , the reported incidence rate showed a notable decrease starting in January 2020 . Reiterating preventive measures and remaining watchful for the possible appearance of latent tuberculosis patients is crucial as the pandemic fades .
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ObjectiveTo analyze the characteristics and changing trend of injury cause of mortality of residents in Qingpu District from 2002 to 2020， and to provide scientific reference for formulating regional prevention and control measures. MethodsThe injury mortality data of the registered residents in Qingpu District from 2002 to 2020 were collected. The indicators such as crude mortality rate， standardized mortality rate， and the ranking of causes of death were calculated. ResultsFrom 2002 to 2020， the average annual crude mortality rate was 50.27/100 000， the age-standardized mortality rate based on the world standard population（ASRW） was 30.08/100 000， and the age-standardized mortality rate based on the 2010 Chinese census（ASMRC） was 35.58/100 000. The average annual crude mortality rate of males was higher than that of females ［Z=54.402， Mantel-Hanszel χ2=1 742.509， P<0.01）. The overall injury mortality rate showed a downward trend with an average annual percent change（AAPC）of -4.07% （95%CI： -5.23%‒-2.90%）， P<0.001］. The top four causes of injury death were transportation accident， indeliberate fall， drowning， and suicide. The leading causes of death in 0‒ years old， 15‒ years old and ≥65 years old were drowning， transportation accident and indeliberate fall， respectively. The ASRW of transportation accident， drowning and suicide all showed a decreasing trend， and the AAPC were -8.22% （95%CI： -10.16%‒-6.24%）， -6.99% （95%CI： -9.68%‒-4.22%） and -6.21% （95%CI： -9.38%‒-2.94%）， respectively. ConclusionThe injury death rate of residents in Qingpu District shows a decreasing trend， and the distribution characteristics of injury death are different among different genders and age groups. Corresponding prevention and control strategies should be adopted for different populations.
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Trend analysis of climatic data is often carried out in water resources management studies to understand its distribution over a given region. This paper presents an analysis of trends in meteorological drought in 12 districts in the northern part of Karnataka state, India over the period 1991–2020. Trends in the 3-month timescale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator for the Kharif season. The results of analysis showed an increasing trend of droughts in four districts however, the trend in most of the districts was not statistically significant. The findings were validated with the trend of the declared area under drought (AUD) by the state government for the study area. The findings of this work might be useful for a better understanding of regional drought trends and also for establishing effective water resources management policies.
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According to the global climate change index, Bangladesh has been identified as one of the countries facing the most vulnerability from climate change. In this proposed research, a comparative climate change trend analysis was done on various temperature and rainfall criteria for three climatic zones of Bangladesh (i.e., Comilla, Ishwardi, and Cox’s Bazar). The weather data was collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), which covers the years 1950–2020 except Ishwardi station starts from the year 1961. The linear trend analysis revealed that the temperature was increased in all study stations, but Comilla station showed less increment in maximum 0.511°C and in minimum 0.546°C temperature compared to the other station. On the other hand, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis test found that the amount of rainfall that fell each year in Ishwardi, and Comilla was going down but is increasing in Cox's Bazar in Mk test 0.735. So far, the magnitude of change assessed by Sen’s Slope estimates also indicated the same trend direction for rainfall analysis with -1.67, 2.28, -7.00 Ishwardi, Cox’s Bazar and Comilla respectively. Overall, the study found that the climate pattern of the Comilla district is much better for people and farming activities than the other two regions of Bangladesh. It never falls into an extreme situation in temperature, neither during summer nor in winter. It is also neither wet nor dry.
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The primary objective of this study is to analyse the annual and seasonal rainfall trends in the Bapatla district of Andhra Pradesh over the long term. The seasonal rainfall data for Bapatla district was collected from the NASA Power website and covering the period from January 1982 to December 2021. To gain insights into the patterns present in the rainfall data for Bapatla district, a combination of parametric methods, including linear regression, and non-parametric tests such as the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope test, Modified-Mann Kendall test, Innovative trend analysis were employed in this approach. The randomness of the rainfall data under investigation was assessed using the Wallis and Moore test. To detect the single change point of the rainfall pattern Pettitt test was employed. The results of linear regression trend method exhibited both increasing and declining trends in rainfall pattern. Notably, the months of April, May and June months exhibited a statistically significant increasing trend other months exhibited no significant trend in Mann-Kendall test, modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope tests. The monsoon season exhibited a statistically significant trend and pre-monsoon, post-monsoon periods and anuual rainfall exhibited non-significant trends in Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests. Moreover, the pre monsoon and monsoon seasons exhibited significant trend in rainfall pattern of Bapatla district by modified Mann-Kendal test. This study serves to raise awareness among agricultural stakeholders, particularly farmers, regarding the fluctuations in monthly and seasonal rainfall patterns and enables them to more effectively allocate resources and prepare for anticipated water shortages during non-monsoon months.
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Solar energy is expected to be a viable alternative sustainable energy source in the near future due to diminishing fossil fuel resources and escalating changes in the climate. Surface Downwelling Shortwave (SDS) radiation is an important component for the characterization of energy deposition of the earth’s surface. The monthly means of SDS radiation for Saudi Arabia were extracted from EUMETSAT (SARAH-2.1 climate data record) between 1983 and 2022. The country experienced the lowest level (188 ± 40 W m-2) of SDS radiation in the winter season with a range of 67-271 W m-2. The summer season in Saudi Arabia has the highest level of radiation with a mean value of 304± 27 W m-2, which is 1.62 times the mean of the winter season. The region experienced the highest (10.6 W m-2/10y) and lowest (-10.80 W m-2/10y) levels of a statistically significant upward and downward trend in SDS radiation during the spring and summer seasons respectively in the first decade of the 21st century (2001-2010). During the spring season, there was an upward trend in the availability of SDS radiation across the region, with a magnitude of 3.8 W m-2/10y with a 99% confidence level. In contrast, there was a downward trend in SDS radiation in the summer with a magnitude of 1.0 W m-2/10y with a 90% confidence level followed by the autumn season when the trend was lowest (-0.45 W m-2/10y) and statistically non-significant.
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The study was conducted in four blocks viz. Abhanpur, Arang, Raipur, and Tilda of Raipur district, using IMD gridded rainfall and maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperature data from 1951 to 2019. Trend analysis was performed with three non-parametric methods (Mann Kendall, Spearman's Rho, and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA)) and one parametric test (Linear Regression analysis) for annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Extreme weather events were studied using Weather Cock and RClimdex software, calculating sixteen climatic indices. The data was divided into 1951-1986 and 1987-2019. The results demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (p<0.01) in rainfall by 10 to 15%. Maximum temperature had a significant increasing trend and minimum temperature significantly decreased (p<0.01) as per ITA. Other methods indicated non-significant decreasing trends for minimum temperature. ITA proved more effective in trend detection. The value of all indices differed before and after 1986, indicating noticeable climate changes. Increasing Warmer days, colder nights, and an expanding diurnal temperature range were observed, accompanied by increased heat wave incidence. Moderate drought episodes and all severe drought occurrences increased after 1986. The values of maximum and minimum temperatures reached new peaks. These findings highlight significant climate changes in the study area, emphasizing the need for sustainable climate management and adaptation strategies.
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The shortened duration of the winter season in the Himalayan region caused by snow melting has a negative impact on fruit crop growth and productivity. The present study focused on examining the impact of climate change on fruit crops in the Solan district of Himachal Pradesh, India, situated in the Himalayan region. The trend analysis of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) along with the productivity of fruit crops was investigated. The climate data spanning 30 years (1990–2019), including average temperature (maximum, minimum, and diurnal) and annual rainfall used during crop development stages like pre-flowering, flowering, and fruit-setting stages. To evaluate climatic trends, the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and Mann-Kendall Test for quantification were employed. The Multivariate Linear Regression Analysis was performed to establish a correlation between climatic variables and crop productivity. The findings indicated that during the pre-flowering stage, there was a gradual increase in average maximum temperature at a rate of 0.001°C per year, along with a corresponding rise in diurnal temperature at a rate of 0.036°C per year. However, annual rainfall and average minimum temperature exhibited non-significant decreasing trends, with rates of -0.044°C and -0.033 mm, respectively. During the flowering stage, there was a significant increase in minimum temperature at a rate of 0.151°C per year, while diurnal temperature exhibited a significant decrease of -0.158°C per year. Other variables did not exhibit substantial changes during this stage. In the fruit-setting stage, only the minimum temperature demonstrated a significant decrease over the study period. The response to climate change revealed an overall positive trend for all fruit crops, leading to higher productivity. The correlation study indicated that the phenological stages of each crop were more positively influenced by temperature than rainfall, owing to existing climatic variations. The current climatic conditions in the Solan district were found to be favorable and productive for crop development, as all crops showed increased productivity based on the trend analysis. The study highlights climatic trends and their impact on the productivity of fruit crops in the Himalayan region, which is useful for agricultural planning and adaptation strategies in response to changing climatic conditions.
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The monthly, seasonal, annual, and decadal trends of seven hydro-meteorological variables were analysed for stations in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, controlled by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Cross River Basin Development Authority (CRBDA) from 1972 to 2021. At the 5% statistical significance level, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator techniques were used to detect if there was a positive or negative trend and the magnitude of the trend in hydro-meteorological data. In the present study, there was a significant statistically increasing (positive) trend in mean seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and runoff. However, there was a significant statistically decreasing (negative) trend in average annual relative humidity, solar radiation, and potential evapotranspiration. The magnitudes of the trends were 19.39mm/year, 0.0314oC/year, 0.013oC/year, -0.104%/year, -8.78MJ/m2/year, -1.440mm/year, and 0.028m3/s/year for annual rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, PET, and runoff, respectively. The rising trends in precipitation, temperature, and runoff in this research area show that this region is subject to climatic variability. The results of the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests revealed the consistency of performance in the detection of the trend for the hydro-meteorological variables.
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This study was carried out to examine trends in crop water requirement under several climate change scenarios to provide projections of changes in crop water requirement of mulberry. According to Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) and Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), scenarios which may be included for assessment were developed from their reports. A CROPWAT-8.0 model was utilized to determine the required water requirements for crops in a variety of climate change scenarios. The estimated and demonstrated growing and reducing trend in crop water requirements of Mulberry over the last 35 years was seen in the Yadgir district in overall displayed. As regards Mulberry, there has been a rising ETc tendency in all study area even if different climate change scenarios are used. It was found that climate variability has an impact on the Mulberry crop's water needs. To help address this, it was suggested that to reduce the risk of yield loss due to changing water availability, water conservation efforts such as rainwater harvesting, soil and water conservation, and increased ground water recharge should be implemented in the study area.
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Accurate wind power estimates (based on variable wind speeds) are necessary for successful planning and investment in wind power development. In order to inform the development of wind energy, it is essential to acquire a trustworthy quantification and spatiotemporal characteristics of wind speeds. This research used the ArcGIS, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Sen's slope to analyze long-term wind speed data from 7 stations in the Kalaburgi District, North Eastern Region of Karnataka State, from 1981 to 2018. The findings of this study contribute to our knowledge of how wind speeds in Kalaburgi District vary and are distributed over long time scales. Over 35 years, there has been a slight and steady rise or decrease in the average wind speed (aveWS). Second, over a span of about 35 years, the annual aweWS varied greatly at various points within the Kalaburgi District. Additionally, the annual aveWS at each station showed a rising tendency. Last but not least, values of wind speeds varied geographically were not very consistent throughout the year, and gradually decreased.
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This study examined the effect of changing climate for thirty-six years (1982-2017) on 24-hourly annual maximum time series (AMS) rainfall data for Benin City. The results show the existence of a trend, variation in magnitude, and change point dates. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) applied to obtain the trend magnitude. A statistically significant trend was found for Benin City at a 5% level of significance. The MK |Z| statistic varied from 2.0710 to 2.1550 for IMD and 2.0844 to 2.0995 for MCIMD downscaling models, which were both greater than the critical Z-value of 1.96. The SSE gave the magnitude of the trend variation rate due to climate change at 24-hour duration as 1.008 mm/year (10.08 mm/decade) and 1.1376 mm/year (11.376 mm/decade) for the IMD and MCIMD models, respectively. Also, the trend change point analysis was conducted using the distribution-free cumulative sum test (CUSUM) and the sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQMK) which has rainfall pattern definite change point date for Benin City as 2005 from where continued a positive trend which intensified through the year 2015. Thus, proving the existence of increasing changing climatic condition for the study area.
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Objective:To learn about the epidemic situation and trend of human brucellosis in Menyuan Hui Autonomous County (referred to as Menyuan County) of Qinghai Province, and to provide reference for formulating brucellosis prevention and control measures in Menyuan County.Methods:Data on human brucellosis in Menyuan County reported by the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from 2013 to 2020 were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological analysis (three distribution).Results:A total of 186 cases of brucellosis were confirmed from 2013 to 2020, with an average annual incidence of 14.553/100 000. The annual incidence rate was increasing year by year(χ 2trend = 22.08, P = 0.002). The cases were distributed in 67 villages of 12 towns; cases were more common in the age group of 15-< 65 years old (96.24%, 179/186), and there were more men than women cases (sex ratio was 3.89∶1.00, 148/38). Conclusions:The incidence rate of brucellosis cases in Menyuan County is increasing year by year, and the scope of its impact is constantly expanding. A multi-sectoral joint prevention and control mechanism should be established to strengthen management, increase the prevention and control of brucellosis, and stop the spread of the epidemic to surrounding counties and cities.
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Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.
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Objective To investigate the tendency of viral hepatitis in Changning District, Shanghai, and to provide scientific evidence for decision-making of prevention and control. Methods Cases of viral hepatitis in Changning District from 2009-2019 were collected , and the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Joinpoint regression analysis were used to estimate the annual percent change and average annual percent change, and to perform the trend test. Results Among the 2009-2019 in Changning District, a total of 3 397 cases of viral hepatitis were reported , the annual average incidence rate was 49.32/100 000. Results from Joinpoint trend analysis indicated that the incidence of viral hepatitis in Changning District was mainly due to hepatitis A and hepatitis B. Conclusions Although the annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis in Changning District is far below the incidence rate of viral hepatitis in China, but it still shows an increasing trend. This shows that the situation of prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Changning is still serious, and hepatitis B remains the key point of prevention of viral hepatitis in Shanghai.
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Background Occupational injury is one of the important causes of death among the working population and a worldwide hot topic, but there are few relevant studies on the trend and prediction of occupational injury attributable deaths in China. Objective To analyze the trend of occupational injury attributable deaths in China from 2000 to 2019, predict the deaths of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024 by contructing a gray GM(1,1) model, and provid a reference for surveillance and assessment of occupational injuries. Methods Mortality, crude mortality rates, and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China by year, sex, and age groups were calculated using data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Join-point model was used to analyze possible trend of standardized mortality rate from 2000 to 2019, and calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). After a gray model GM(1,1) was established, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by posterior error ratio (C) and small error probability (P) and rated as Level 1 (good, C≤0.35 and P≥0.95) or Level 2 (qualified, 0.35<C≤0.50 and 0.80≤P<0.95). Then the gray model was further used to predict the number of deaths and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 2000 to 2019, the deaths due to occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, the number of deaths decreased from 111557 to 61780, the crude mortality rate decreased from 8.58/100000 to 4.34/100000, the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.67/100000 to 3.65/100000, and the AAPC of standardized mortality rate was −4.0% (P<0.05); the number of male deaths decreased from 87760 to 49192, and the male standardized mortality rate decreased from 11.78/100000 to 5.68/100000; the number of female deaths decreased from 23797 to 12588, and the female standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.34/100000 to 1.55/100000; the AAPCs of male and female standardized mortality rate were −3.9% and −4.1% respectively. The accuracy of the established gray model for deaths (C=0.09, P=1) was rated as Level 1, and that for standardized mortality rate (C=0.41, P=0.9) was rated as level 2, which allowed for prediction extrapolation. The model showed that from 2020 to 2024, the number of occupational injury attributable deaths would be 76039, 73849, 71721, 69655, and 67649, and the standardized mortality rate would be 4.23/100000, 4.07/100000, 3.92/100000, 3.77/100000, and 3.62/100000, respectively. Conclusion From 2000 to 2019, the standardized mortality rate of occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, and it is predicted that the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 will still show a downward trend, but the number of deaths will remain high, so it is necessary to continue to strengthen prevention and control of occupational injuries.