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OBJECTIVES@#To investigate the risk factors for performing bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) and pulmonary consolidation, and to construct a predictive model for performing BAL in these children.@*METHODS@#A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 202 children with MPP who were hospitalized in the Department of Pediatrics, Changzhou No. 2 People's Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, from August 2019 to September 2022. According to whether BAL was performed, they were divided into BAL group with 100 children and non-BAL group with 102 children. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for performing BAL in MPP children with pulmonary consolidation. Rstudio software (R4.2.3) was used to establish a predictive model for performing BAL, and the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, and calibration curve were used to assess the predictive performance of the model.@*RESULTS@#The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the fever duration, C-reactive protein levels, D-dimer levels, and presence of pleural effusion were risk factors for performing BAL in MPP children with pulmonary consolidation (P<0.05). A nomogram predictive model was established based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis. In the training set, this model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.915 (95%CI: 0.827-0.938), with a sensitivity of 0.826 and a specificity of 0.875, while in the validation set, it had an area under the ROC curve of 0.983 (95%CI: 0.912-0.996), with a sensitivity of 0.879 and a specificity of 1.000. The Bootstrap-corrected C-index was 0.952 (95%CI: 0.901-0.986), and the calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the predicted probability of the model and the actual probability of occurrence.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The predictive model established in this study can be used to assess the likelihood of performing BAL in MPP children with pulmonary consolidation, based on factors such as fever duration, C-reactive protein levels, D-dimer levels, and the presence of pleural effusion. Additionally, the model demonstrates good predictive performance.
Subject(s)
Child , Humans , Mycoplasma pneumoniae , Retrospective Studies , C-Reactive Protein/analysis , Pneumonia, Mycoplasma/diagnosis , Bronchoalveolar Lavage , Pleural EffusionABSTRACT
Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are rare but severe diseases. This study aimed to validate the predictive ability of risk models in patients with SJS/TEN and propose possible refinement in China. Patients in the Department of Dermatology of Huashan Hospital from January 2008 to January 2019 were included. Results showed that the severity-of-illness score for TEN (SCORTEN) had a good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.78), and it was superior to auxiliary score (AS) and ABCD-10, which indicates age, bicarbonate level, cancer, dialysis, and 10% involved body surface area (AUC, 0.69 and 0.68, respectively). The calibration of SCORTEN (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, P = 0.69) was also better than that of AS (P = 0.25) and ABCD-10 (P = 0.55). SCORTEN and ABCD-10 were similar (Brier score (BS), 0.04 and 0.04) in terms of accuracy of predictions. In addition, the imaging appearance of pulmonary consolidation on computed tomography was associated with high mortality. Refined models were formed using the variables and this imaging appearance. The refined AS and ABCD-10 models were similar in discrimination compared with the original SCORTEN (0.74 vs. 0.78, P = 0.23; 0.74 vs. 0.78, P = 0.30, respectively). Therefore, SCORTEN showed good discrimination performance, calibration, and accuracy, and refined AS or ABCD-10 model may be an option when SCORTEN variables are not available.
Subject(s)
Humans , Cohort Studies , Retrospective Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Stevens-Johnson Syndrome/diagnostic imaging , TomographyABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the effect of the bedside lung ultrasound in emergency (BLUE)-plus lung ultrasound protocol on lung consolidation and atelectasis of critical patients.Methods All patients who need to receive mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours in ICU from June 2010 to December 2011 in Peking Union Medical College Hospital were included in the study.BLUE-plus and BLUE lung ultrasound,bedside X-ray,lung CT examination were performed on all patients at the same time.The condition of lung consolidation and atelectasis discovered by BLUE-plus lung ultrasound protocol was recorded and compared with bedside X-ray or lung CT.The difference in assessment of lung consolidation and atelectasis between BLUE-plus lung ultrasound protocol and BLUE protocol was compared.Results A total of 78 patients were finally enrolled in the study.The lung CT found 70 cases (89.74%) had different degrees of lung consolidation and atelectasis.The sensitivity,specificity and diagnostic accuracy of lung consolidation and atelectasis by the bedside chest X-ray were 31.29%,75.00% and 38.46%,respectively.BLUE-plus lung ultrasound protocol found 68 cases with lung consolidation and atelectasis,and its sensitivity,specificity,and diagnostic accuracy were 95.71%,87.50% and 94.87%,respectively,which were significantly higher than those of lung CT.BLUE protocol found 48 cases of lung consolidation and atelectasis,and its sensitivity,specificity,and diagnostic accuracy were 65.71%,75.00% and 66.67%,respectively.The position of lung consolidation and atelectasis which hadn't been found by BLUE protocol was mainly proved to be located in the basement of lung by lung CT.Conclusions The incidence of lung consolidation and atelectasis in critical patients who received mechanical ventilation is high.The BLUE-plus lung ultrasound protocol has a relatively higher sensitivity,specificity and diagnostic accuracy for consolidation and atelectasis,which can find majority of consolidation and atelectasis.As BLUE-plus lung ultrasound is a bedside noninvasive method allowing immediate assessment of most lung consolidation and atelectasis,it will be likely the alternative of the CT and play a key role in assessment of lung consolidation and atelectasis.
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Introducción. La bronquiolitis es una de las enfermedades que más controversia presenta por la variedad en su diagnóstico y manejo en pediatría; los recursos diagnósticos independientes a la clínica son usualmente innecesarios dentro de su presentación clásica. Los objetivos de este trabajo fueron conocer la frecuencia de alteraciones radiográficas significativas en pacientes menores de 24 meses de edad ingresados por el servicio de urgencias con diagnóstico de bronquiolitis y conocer la relación entre los patrones radiológicos y las variables clínicas con objeto de reducir la exposición radiográfica innecesaria. Métodos. Se incluyeron 128 pacientes menores de 24 meses de edad ingresados por el departamento de urgencias del Hospital San José Tec de Monterrey con diagnóstico de bronquiolitis entre septiembre de 2006 y marzo de 2007. Se registraron las siguientes variables clínicas: edad, sexo, días de evolución, saturación de oxígeno, así como las variables de laboratorio: cuenta leucocitaria y linfocitaria e identificación viral respiratoria; también se registró, para cada caso, si se realizaron radiografías de tórax. Resultados. Se obtuvieron las radiografías de tórax de 122 pacientes (95.31 %) y se realizó la investigación del panel viral respiratorio en 119 pacientes (92.96%); de estos 69 fueron positivos (57.99%). El virus sincitial respiratorio estuvo presente en 62 muestras (89.85%). Sólo 15 pacientes (12.29%) presentaron alteraciones significativas como atelectasia/consolidación neumónica en la radiografía de tórax. No hubo diferencias en cuanto a las variables clínicas y de laboratorio en los pacientes con resultados radiológicos normales o anormales. Conclusiones. Las radiografías de tórax no mostraron alteraciones significativas en la mayoría de los pacientes con cuadro de bronquiolitis; nuestro estudio muestra que la radiografía tiene un valor limitado como recurso diagnóstico en la presentación clásica de esta enfermedad.
Background. Bronchiolitis is one of the leading controversial pediatric diseases because of its variations in diagnosis and treatment. Use of diagnostic resources beyond the clinical features is usually unnecessary in its classic presentation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of significant abnormalities in radiographic findings performed on infants <24 months of age who were hospitalized through the emergency department with the diagnosis of bronchiolitis, as well as to assess whether clinical variables can accurately identify children with abnormal chest X-ray in order to reduce unnecessary radiation exposure. Methods. From September 2006 to March 2007, infants aged <24 months evaluated and hospitalized through the emergency department of the Hospital San Jose Tec de Monterrey with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis were included in the study. Clinical variables were registered (age, gender, time since onset, oxygen saturation) and laboratory variables as well (leukocytes, lymphocytes, virus identified). Information from the chest X-ray was also obtained. Results. There were 128 patients included; 70% were aged <12 months. Chest X-ray was performed in 122 patients (95.31 %) and respiratory virus studies were done in 119 patients (92.96%). There were 69 patients who were positive (57.99%); respiratory syncytial virus was demonstrated in 62 samples (89.85%) and 15 patients (12.29%) showed abnormal chest X-ray (atelectasis/consolidation). No differences were found between patients with and without chest X-ray abnormalities in clinical and laboratory variables. Conclusions. Most patients with bronchiolitis had a normal chest X-ray. Our study suggests that x-rays in children with typical bronchiolitis have limited value.