A novel simplified scoring system for predicting mortality in emergency colorectal surgery: prediction model development

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Despite advances in surgical approaches, emergency colorectal surgery has high mortality and morbidity. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create a simple and distinctive scoring system, for predicting mortality among patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prediction model development study based on retrospective data-gathering. METHODS: Patients who underwent emergency colorectal surgery between March 2014 and December 2016 at a single tertiary-level referral center were included in our study. Patient demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, etiology and laboratory and radiological findings were collected retrospectively and analyzed. A new clinical score (named the Numune emergency colorectal resection score) was constructed from the last logistic regression model, in which one point was assigned for the presence of each predictive factor. RESULTS: 138 patients underwent emergency colorectal surgery. These comprised 64 males (46.4%) and 74 females (53.6%), with a mean age of 64 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that blood urea nitrogen level > 65 mg/dl (odds ratio, OR: 8.03; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.16-15.77), albumin level < 0.7 ­mg/­dl (OR: 4.43; 95% CI: 1.96-14.39) and American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 3 (OR: 3.47; 95% CI: 0.81-9.18) were associated with postoperative complications. The Numune score was graded from I to III. The risk of mortality was found to be 63.2% in the group with grade III, which accounted for 35.2% of the subjects. There were 37 postoperative deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons need scoring systems, especially to predict postoperative mortality. We propose the Numune emergency colorectal resection score for emergency surgical procedures as a practical, usable and effective system for predicting postoperative morbidity.

Outcomes of elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery for complicated colorectal cancer: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequent types of malignant neoplasms. Age is a risk factor for this disease, with 75% of cases diagnosed in patients older than 65 years. Complications such as obstruction, hemorrhage, and perforation are present in more than one-third of cases and require emergency treatment. We aim to analyze the profile of elderly patients undergoing surgery for complicated colorectal cancer, and to evaluate factors related to worse short-term prognosis. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of patients who underwent emergency surgical treatment for complicated colorectal cancer was performed. Demographics, clinical, radiological and histological data were collected. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients were analyzed. The median age was 72 years, and almost half (46%) of the patients were female. Obstruction was the most prevalent complication at initial presentation (72%). The most common sites of neoplasia were the left and sigmoid colon in 22 patients (32.8%), and the right colon in 17 patients (25.4%). Resection was performed in 88% of cases, followed by primary anastomosis in almost half. The most frequent clinical stages were II (48%) and III (22%). Forty-three patients (65.7%) had some form of postoperative complication. Clavien-Dindo grades 1, 2, and 4, were the most frequent. Complete oncologic resection was observed in 80% of the cases. The thirty-day mortality rate was 10.4%. Advanced age was associated with worse morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: Elderly patients with complicated colorectal cancer undergoing emergency surgery have high morbidity and mortality rates. Advanced age is significantly associated with worse outcomes.

Fatores de risco para mortalidade em octogenários submetidos a cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica / Risk factors for mortality in octogenarians undergoing myocardial revascularization surgery / Factores de riesgo para mortalidad en octogenarios sometidos a cirugía de revascularización miocárdica

FUNDAMENTO: Idade maior a 80 anos não é, por si só, o único fator de risco para a mortalidade em revascularização miocárdica. OBJETIVO: Identificar fatores de risco para a mortalidade em pacientes octogenários submetidos a revascularização miocárdica. MÉTODOS: Estudamos 164 pacientes, com idade igual ou maior a 80 anos. As variáveis estudadas foram: sexo, idade (em anos), fração de ejeção do ventrículo esquerdo (FEVE), reoperação, cirurgia de emergência, número de artérias revascularizadas, uso da artéria torácica interna esquerda (ATIE), uso de circulação extracorpórea (CEC), cirurgia associada, revascularização da artéria interventricular anterior (AIVA) e uso de balão intra-aórtico (BIA). A análise estatística foi feita por meio de análises descritiva, univariada e multivariada por regressão logística. Foram considerados significância estatística os valores de p < 0,05, e a análise multivariada foi realizada com variáveis cujo valor era p < 0,20. RESULTADOS: A mortalidade foi de 11 por cento. Na análise univariada, evidenciou-se que baixa FEVE (p = 0,008), cirurgia de emergência (p < 0,001) e uso de balão intra-aórtico (p = 0,049) relacionaram-se à maior chance de mortalidade. Ao ajustar pela regressão logística, revelou-se que a idade acima de 85 anos correlacionou-se com uma chance de mortalidade 6,31 vezes maior (p = 0,012) e que a cirurgia de emergência esteve relacionada a uma chance de mortalidade 55,39 vezes maior (p < 0,001). CONCLUSÃO: Em octogenários submetidos a cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica, idade superior a 85 anos e cirurgia de emergência são fatores preditivos importantes de maior mortalidade.

BACKGROUND: The complexity of reentrant circuits related to ventricular tachycardias decreases the success rate of radiofrequency ablation procedures. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the epicardial mapping with multiple electrodes carried out simultaneously with the endocardial mapping helps in ablation procedures of sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) in patients with nonischemic heart disease. METHODS: Twenty-six patients with recurrent sustained VT, of which 22 (84.6 percent) presenting chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy, 2 (7.7 percent) with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy and 2 with right ventricular arrhythmogenic dysplasia (RVAD), were submitted to epicardial mapping with two or three microcatheters, with 8 electrodes each, simultaneously to the conventional endocardial mapping. A catheter with a 4-mm tip was used for the ablation by radiofrequency (RF) carried out during the induced VT. RESULTS: Of the 33 induced VT, 25 were mapped and 20 had their origin defined. Eleven had epicardial and 9 had endocardial origin. The programmed ventricular stimulation did not induce sustained VT in 11 (42.0 percent) of the 26 patients after the ablation. Events such as VT recurrence and death occurred in 10.0 percent of the patients submitted to successful ablation and in 59.0 percent of the unsuccessful cases, during a mean ambulatory follow-up of 357 ± 208 days. CONCLUSION: Subepicardial circuits are frequent in patients with nonischemic heart disease. The epicardial mapping with multiple catheters carried out simultaneously with the endocardial mapping contributes to the identification of these circuits in a same procedure.

FUNDAMENTO: Edad mayor a 80 años no es, por si sola, el único factor de riesgo para la mortalidad en revascularización miocárdica. OBJETIVO: Identificar factores de riesgo para la mortalidad en pacientes octogenarios sometidos a revascularización miocárdica. MÉTODOS: Estudiamos 164 pacientes, con edad igual o mayor a 80 años. Las variables estudiadas fueron: sexo, edad (en años), fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo (FEVI), reoperación, cirugía de emergencia, número de arterias revascularizadas, uso de la arteria torácica interna izquierda (ATII), uso de circulación extracorpórea (CEC), cirugía asociada, revascularización de la arteria interventricular anterior (AIVA) y uso de balón intraaórtico (BIA). El análisis estadístico fue hecho por medio de análisis descriptivo, univariado y multivariado por regresión logística. Fueron considerados de significación estadística los valores de p < 0,05, y el análisis multivariado fue realizado con variables cuyo valor era p < 0,20. RESULTADOS: La mortalidad fue de 11 por ciento. En el análisis univariado, se evidenció que baja FEVI (p=0,008), cirugía de emergencia (p < 0,001) y uso de balón intraaórtico (p=0,049) se relacionaron a mayor posibilidad de mortalidad. Al ajustar por regresión logística, se reveló que la edad encima de 85 años se correlacionó con una posibilidad de mortalidad 6,31 veces mayor (p=0,012) y que la cirugía de emergencia estuvo relacionada a una posibilidad de mortalidad 55,39 veces mayor (p < 0,001). CONCLUSIÓN: En octogenarios sometidos a cirugía de revascularización miocárdica, edad superior a 85 años y cirugía de emergencia son factores predictivos importantes de mayor mortalidad.