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Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-928831


BACKGROUND@#Although previous studies have shown that meteorological factors such as temperature are related to the incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD), researches about the non-linear and interaction effect among meteorological variables remain limited. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature and other meteorological variables on BD in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is a high-risk area for BD distribution.@*METHODS@#Our study was based on the daily-scale data of BD cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2019, using generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the lag and cumulative effects. The interaction effects and stratified analysis were developed by the GAM.@*RESULTS@#A total of 147,001 cases were reported from 2014 to 2019. The relationship between temperature and BD was approximately liner above 0 °C, but the turning point of total temperature effect was 10 °C. Results of DLNM indicated that the effect of high temperature was significant on lag 5d and lag 6d, and the lag effect showed that each 5 °C rise caused a 3% [Relative risk (RR) = 1.03, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.05] increase in BD cases. The cumulative BD cases delayed by 7 days increased by 31% for each 5 °C rise in temperature above 10 °C (RR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.30-1.33). The interaction effects and stratified analysis manifested that the incidence of BD was highest in hot and humid climates.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This study suggests that temperature can significantly affect the incidence of BD, and its effect can be enhanced by humidity and precipitation, which means that the hot and humid environment positively increases the incidence of BD.

Beijing/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Dysentery, Bacillary/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Temperature
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-928651


To compare the performance of generalized additive model (GAM) and long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) on the prediction of daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes. Daily data on air pollutants, meteorological factors and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases from Jan 1st, 2014 to Dec 31st, 2019 in Beijing were collected. LSTM-RNN was used to predict the daily admissions of respiratory diseases with comorbid diabetes, and the results were compared with those of GAM. The evaluation indexes were calculated by five-fold cross validation. Compared with the GAM, the prediction errors of LSTM-RNN were significantly lower [root mean squared error (RMSE): 21.21±3.30 vs. 46.13±7.60, <0.01; mean absolute error (MAE): 14.64±1.99 vs. 36.08±6.20, <0.01], and the value was significantly higher (0.79±0.06 vs. 0.57±0.12, <0.01). In gender stratification, RMSE, MAE and values of LSTM-RNN were better than those of GAM in predicting female admission (all <0.05), but there were no significant difference in predicting male admission between two models (all >0.05). In seasonal stratification, RMSE and MAE of LSTM-RNN were lower than those of GAM in predicting warm season admission (all <0.05), but there was no significant difference in value (>0.05). There were no significant difference in RMSE, MAE and between the two models in predicting cold season admission (all >0.05). In the stratification of functional areas, the RMSE, MAE and values of LSTM-RNN were better than those of GAM in predicting core area admission (all <0.05). has lower prediction errors and better fitting than the GAM, which can provide scientific basis for precise allocation of medical resources in polluted weather in advance.

Beijing/epidemiology , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Memory, Short-Term , Neural Networks, Computer
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 1803-1811, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-887602


BACKGROUND@#Acute heart failure (AHF) is the most common disease in emergency departments (EDs). However, clinical data exploring the outcomes of patients presenting AHF in EDs are limited, especially the long-term outcomes. The purposes of this study were to describe the long-term outcomes of patients with AHF in the EDs and further analyze their prognostic factors.@*METHODS@#This prospective, multicenter, cohort study consecutively enrolled 3335 patients with AHF who were admitted to EDs of 14 hospitals from Beijing between January 1, 2011 and September 23, 2012. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were adopted to evaluate 5-year outcomes and associated predictors.@*RESULTS@#The 5-year mortality and cardiovascular death rates were 55.4% and 49.6%, respectively. The median overall survival was 34 months. Independent predictors of 5-year mortality were patient age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.027, 95 confidence interval [CI]: 1.023-1.030), body mass index (BMI) (HR: 0.971, 95% CI: 0.958-0.983), fatigue (HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.009-1.258), ascites (HR: 1.190, 95% CI: 1.057-1.340), hepatic jugular reflux (HR: 1.339, 95% CI: 1.140-1.572), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III to IV (HR: 1.511, 95% CI: 1.291-1.769), heart rate (HR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.001-1.005), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (HR: 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993-0.999), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (HR: 1.014, 95% CI: 1.008-1.020), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in the third (HR: 1.426, 95% CI: 1.220-1.668) or fourth quartile (HR: 1.437, 95% CI: 1.223-1.690), serum sodium (HR: 0.980, 95% CI: 0.972-0.988), serum albumin (HR: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.971-0.992), ischemic heart diseases (HR: 1.195, 95% CI: 1.073-1.331), primary cardiomyopathy (HR: 1.382, 95% CI: 1.183-1.614), diabetes (HR: 1.118, 95% CI: 1.010-1.237), stroke (HR: 1.252, 95% CI: 1.121-1.397), and the use of diuretics (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.626-0.814), β-blockers (HR: 0.673, 95% CI: 0.588-0.769), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.604-0.845), angiotensin-II receptor blockers (ARBs) (HR: 0.790, 95% CI: 0.646-0.965), spironolactone (HR: 0.814, 95% CI: 0.663-0.999), calcium antagonists (HR: 0.624, 95% CI: 0.531-0.733), nitrates (HR: 0.715, 95% CI: 0.631-0.811), and digoxin (HR: 0.579, 95% CI: 0.465-0.721).@*CONCLUSIONS@#The results of our study demonstrate poor 5-year outcomes of patients presenting to EDs with AHF. Age, BMI, fatigue, ascites, hepatic jugular reflux, NYHA class III to IV, heart rate, DBP, BUN, BNP/NT-proBNP level in the third or fourth quartile, serum sodium, serum albumin, ischemic heart diseases, primary cardiomyopathy, diabetes, stroke, and the use of diuretics, β-blockers, ACEIs, ARBs, spironolactone, calcium antagonists, nitrates, and digoxin were independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality.

Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors , Beijing/epidemiology , Biomarkers , Cohort Studies , Emergency Service, Hospital , Follow-Up Studies , Heart Failure/mortality , Humans , Natriuretic Peptide, Brain , Peptide Fragments , Prognosis , Prospective Studies
Article in Chinese | WPRIM | ID: wpr-879784


OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the incidence rate of infectious diseases during hospitalization in late preterm infants in Beijing, China, as well as the risk factors for infectious diseases and the effect of breastfeeding on the development of infectious diseases.@*METHODS@#Related data were collected from the late preterm infants who were hospitalized in the neonatal wards of 25 hospitals in Beijing, China, from October 23, 2015 to October 30, 2017. According to the feeding pattern, they were divided into a breastfeeding group and a formula feeding group. The two groups were compared in terms of general status and incidence rate of infectious diseases. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for infectious diseases.@*RESULTS@#A total of 1 576 late preterm infants were enrolled, with 153 infants in the breastfeeding group and 1 423 in the formula feeding group. Of all infants, 484 (30.71%) experienced infectious diseases. The breastfeeding group had a significantly lower incidence rate of infectious diseases than the formula feeding group (22.88% vs 31.55%, @*CONCLUSIONS@#Breastfeeding can significantly reduce the incidence of infectious diseases and is a protective factor against infectious diseases in late preterm infants. Breastfeeding should therefore be actively promoted for late preterm infants during hospitalization.

Beijing/epidemiology , Breast Feeding , China/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Female , Hospitalization , Hospitals , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Premature , Male , Pregnancy
Article in Chinese | WPRIM | ID: wpr-879324


OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the relevance ratio of osteoporosis and bone mass of middle aged and elderly people in Beijing communities, in order to understand occurrence and development trend of abnormality of bone mass in high-risk population from community.@*METHODS@#Based on the method of cross-sectional investigation, the information data of 1 540 middle-aged and elderly people from 10 communities were collected, including 415 males and 1 125 females, aged from 45 to 80 years old with the average of (63.02±7.15) years old; the height was (161.34±7.24) cm, the weight was (65.90±10.19) kg, body mass index was (25.29±3.32) kg /m2. Bone mineral density (BMD) of lumbar vertebrae (L@*RESULTS@#The level of β-CTX was(0.27±0.12) ng /ml, procollanen type 1 N-terminal propeptide(P1NP) was(51.03± 22.36) ng /ml, 25(OH) D3 was (16.68±6.24) ng /ml, serum calcium was(2.34±0.09) mmol / L, blood phosphorus was (1.43± 0.37) mmol / L, and blood magnesium was (0.94±0.07) mmol / L, alkaline phosphatase was (79.28±20.48) U/ L, parathyroid hormone was (3.09±1.60) pmol / L, osteocalcin was (13.29±6.65) ng /ml. Except for blood magnesium, the other indexes had significant differences between different sex groups(@*CONCLUSION@#There are obvious differences in relevance ratio of osteoporosis and low bone mass among different sites. It is suggested that the clinical diagnosis of osteoporosis should be combined with bone mineral density and bone metabolic markers. With the increasing prevalence of osteoporosis among middle aged and elderly people in Beijing community, continuous follow-up research based on community primary health care units could promote early examination, early diagnosis, and early treatment of middle aged and elderly people at high risk of osteoporosis in community.

Absorptiometry, Photon , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Beijing/epidemiology , Bone Density , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Osteoporosis/epidemiology
Braz. j. microbiol ; 49(4): 891-899, Oct.-Dec. 2018. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS | ID: biblio-974311


ABSTRACT This study examined the antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and clonal complex (CC) characteristics of serogroup 6 Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates collected from children in Beijing, China, between 1997 and 2016. Serotypes were determined using the Quellung reaction, and the antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of the isolates were determined using the disc-diffusion method or by E-test. Sequence types (STs) were assigned based on multilocus sequence typing. A total of 250 isolates were examined, with 55.2%, 30.0%, 12.8%, and 2.0% of isolates identified as serotypes 6A, 6B, 6C, and 6D, respectively. All of the isolates were susceptible to levofloxacin and vancomycin, and the non-suceptibitility rate to penicillin was 41.6%. Eighty-two distinct STs, assigned to 13 CCs and 28 singletons, were identified. CC982 was the most prevalent CC amongst serotype 6A isolates (34%), followed by CC9789 and CC3173. Amongst serotype 6B isolates, CC90 and CC4542 were the most common, accounting for 25.3% and 14.7% of isolates respectively. Over the study period, the prevalence of CC982, CC4542, and CC4536 isolates showing susceptibility to penicillin and cefuroxime decreased, and the proportion of CC3173, CC9789, CC855, and CC902 isolates showing non-susceptibility to these two antibiotics increased.

Humans , Male , Female , Child, Preschool , Child , Pneumococcal Infections/microbiology , Streptococcus pneumoniae/isolation & purification , Streptococcus pneumoniae/drug effects , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Penicillins , Phylogeny , Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology , Streptococcus pneumoniae/classification , Streptococcus pneumoniae/genetics , Microbial Sensitivity Tests , China , Multilocus Sequence Typing , Beijing/epidemiology