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1.
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 38(1): e00254220, 2022. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS | ID: biblio-1355990

ABSTRACT

Abstract: Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world's most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements.


Resumo: Embora São Paulo seja a cidade mais populosa do Brasil, que é um dos países mais violentos do mundo, o município vem apresentando uma redução significativa na taxa de mortalidade por homicídio (TMH). O estudo buscou estimar os efeitos de idade, período e coorte de nascimentos na tendência da mortalidade por homicídio de acordo com sexo na cidade de São Paulo, entre 1996 e 2015. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com dados sobre óbitos por homicídio em ambos os sexos, em todas as faixas etárias, no local e período mencionados acima. Foram ajustados modelos de Poisson para cada sexo, para estimar os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. Foram registrados 61.833 óbitos por homicídio em homens e 5.109 em mulheres. Independentemente do período, a TMH mais alta ocorreu na faixa etária de 20-24 anos. As TMH mais altas foram observadas em indivíduos que nasceram nas décadas de 1970 e 1980. O melhor ajuste para os dados foi como o modelo completo, com os efeitos de idade-período-coorte. O risco e óbitos por homicídio diminuiu ao longo dos anos, com a menor intensidade nos últimos cinco anos (2011-2015), tanto em homens (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49) quanto em mulheres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Foi observada uma redução no risco de homicídio, independente de sexo ou faixa etária, como também, nas coortes mais recentes. Entretanto, a intensidade dessas reduções tem diminuído ao longo do tempo, sugerindo que as políticas públicas adotadas têm potencial limitado para manter os avanços alcançados.


Resumen: A pesar de que São Paulo es la cuidad más poblada en Brasil, uno de los países más violentos del mundo, ha estado mostrando una significativa reducción en su tasa de mortalidad por homicidios (TMH). Este estudio se propone estimar los efectos de la edad, período, y cohorte de nacimiento sobre la tendencia de la mortalidad por homicidio, según sexo, en la ciudad de Sao Paulo, de 1996 a 2015. Se realizó un estudio ecológico con datos sobre las muertes por homicidio en ambos sexos, en todos los grupos de edad, en el lugar y período mencionado previamente. Con el fin de estimar los efectos de la edad-período-cohorte, se ajustaron modelos Poisson para ambos sexos. Se registraron un total de 61.833 muertes por homicidio entre hombres y 5.109 entre mujeres. Independientemente del período, la TMH más alta se produjo en la franja de edad 20-24. Unas TMH más altas se observaron en quienes habían nacido en los 1970 y los 1980. El modelo completo, con los efectos edad-período-cohorte, fue la mejor manera de ajustar los datos. El riesgo de muerte por homicidio se redujo a lo largo de los períodos, con una intensidad más baja en los últimos cinco años (2011-2015), para tanto hombres (RR = 0,48; IC95%: 0,46; 0,49), como mujeres (RR = 0,52; IC95%: 0,47; 0,57). Se observó una reducción en el riesgo de homicidio, independientemente del sexo o franja de edad, así como en las cohortes recientes. No obstante, la intensidad de tales reducciones ha estado decreciendo a lo largo del tiempo, lo que sugiere que las políticas públicas adoptadas tienen un potencial limitado para mantener estos logros.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Homicide , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Effect , Mortality , Cities
2.
Brasília; s.n; 15 jul.2020.
Non-conventional in Portuguese | PIE, LILACS, BRISA, PIE | ID: biblio-1117674

ABSTRACT

O Informe Diário de Evidências é uma produção do Ministério da Saúde que tem como objetivo acompanhar diariamente as publicações científicas sobre tratamento farmacológico e vacinas para a COVID-19. Dessa forma, são realizadas buscas estruturadas em bases de dados biomédicas, referentes ao dia anterior desse informe. Não são incluídos estudos pré-clínicos (in vitro, in vivo, in silico). A frequência dos estudos é demonstrada de acordo com a sua classificação metodológica (revisões sistemáticas, ensaios clínicos randomizados, coortes, entre outros). Para cada estudo é apresentado um resumo com avaliação da qualidade metodológica. Essa avaliação tem por finalidade identificar o grau de certeza/confiança ou o risco de viés de cada estudo. Para tal, são utilizadas ferramentas já validadas e consagradas na literatura científica, na área de saúde baseada em evidências. Cabe ressaltar que o documento tem caráter informativo e não representa uma recomendação oficial do Ministério da Saúde sobre a temática. Foram encontrados 14 artigos e 6 protocolos.


Subject(s)
Humans , Pneumonia, Viral/drug therapy , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , Betacoronavirus/drug effects , Renin-Angiotensin System , Technology Assessment, Biomedical , Omeprazole/therapeutic use , Dexamethasone/therapeutic use , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation/instrumentation , Cohort Effect , Enoxaparin/therapeutic use , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A/therapeutic use , Ritonavir/therapeutic use , Interleukin 1 Receptor Antagonist Protein/therapeutic use , Lopinavir/therapeutic use , Fibrinolytic Agents/therapeutic use , Esomeprazole/therapeutic use , Darunavir/therapeutic use , Rituximab/therapeutic use , Pantoprazole/therapeutic use , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Anticoagulants/therapeutic use
3.
Brasília; s.n; 14 jul. 2020.
Non-conventional in Portuguese | PIE, LILACS, BRISA, PIE | ID: biblio-1117673

ABSTRACT

O Informe Diário de Evidências é uma produção do Ministério da Saúde que tem como objetivo acompanhar diariamente as publicações científicas sobre tratamento farmacológico e vacinas para a COVID-19. Dessa forma, são realizadas buscas estruturadas em bases de dados biomédicas, referentes ao dia anterior desse informe. Não são incluídos estudos pré-clínicos (in vitro, in vivo, in silico). A frequência dos estudos é demonstrada de acordo com a sua classificação metodológica (revisões sistemáticas, ensaios clínicos randomizados, coortes, entre outros). Para cada estudo é apresentado um resumo com avaliação da qualidade metodológica. Essa avaliação tem por finalidade identificar o grau de certeza/confiança ou o risco de viés de cada estudo. Para tal, são utilizadas ferramentas já validadas e consagradas na literatura científica, na área de saúde baseada em evidências. Cabe ressaltar que o documento tem caráter informativo e não representa uma recomendação oficial do Ministério da Saúde sobre a temática. Foram encontrados 17 artigos e 18 protocolos.


Subject(s)
Humans , Pneumonia, Viral/drug therapy , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , Betacoronavirus/drug effects , Technology Assessment, Biomedical , Immunoglobulins/therapeutic use , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors/therapeutic use , BCG Vaccine/therapeutic use , Cohort Effect , Chloroquine/therapeutic use , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , Azithromycin/therapeutic use , Ritonavir/therapeutic use , Interleukin-17/therapeutic use , Drug Combinations , Oseltamivir/therapeutic use , Lopinavir/therapeutic use , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use
4.
Salud pública Méx ; 61(3): 230-239, may.-jun. 2019. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | LILACS | ID: biblio-1094460

ABSTRACT

Resumen: Objetivo: Actualizar información sobre la tendencia de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en México de 1990 a 2016. Material y métodos: Se obtuvieron tasas ajustadas por edad mediante el método directo. Se obtuvo el porcentaje de cambio anual de la mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón, mediante análisis joinpoint a nivel nacional, por región, sexo y estrato rural-urbano y, en estos dos últimos, el efecto de edad-periodo-cohorte. Resultados: Se observó un decremento anual en las tasas de mortalidad por esta neoplasia en los últimos 10 años, significativamente mayor en los hombres (-3.5% IC95% -4.0,-2.9) que en las mujeres (-1.9% IC95% -2.1,-1.7), una brecha generacional entre hombres y mujeres y estrato urbano-rural con tendencia decreciente en el riesgo de muerte. Conclusión: Las tendencias de mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón de 1993 a 2016 presentan una disminución en diferentes magnitudes y periodos específicos.


Abstract: Objective: To update information on the mortality trend due to lung cancer in Mexico from 1990 to 2016. Materials and methods: Age-adjusted rates were obtained using the direct method. The percentage of annual change in the mortality of lung cancer was obtained through joinpoint analysis at the national level, by region, sex and rural-urban stratum, and in the last two the age-cohort-period effect. Results: There was an annual decrease in mortality rates due to this neoplasm in the last 10 years, significantly higher in men (-3.5% CI95% -4.0,-2.9) than in women (-1.9% CI95% -2.1,-1.7), and a generational gap between men and women and urban-rural stratum with a decreasing trend in the risk of death. Conclusion: Mortality trends due to lung cancer from 1993 to 2016 show a decrease in different magnitudes and specific periods.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Lung Neoplasms/mortality , Time Factors , Cohort Effect , Mortality/trends , Age Distribution , Mexico/epidemiology
6.
Epidemiology and Health ; : 2019038-2019.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-785749

ABSTRACT

The 2019 hepatitis A outbreak has become increasingly prevalent among adults in Korea and is the largest outbreak since that in 2009–2010. The incidence in the current outbreak is highest among adults aged 35–44 years, corresponding to the peak incidence among those aged 25–34 years 10 years ago. This may indicate a cohort effect in the corresponding age group. Causes of these repeated outbreaks of hepatitis A in Korea are low level of immunity among adults, Korean food culture that consumes raw seafood such as salted clam and inadequate public health system. Among countermeasures, along with general infectious disease control measures including control of the infectious agent, infection spread, and host, urgent actions are needed to review the vaccination policy and establish an adequate public health system.


Subject(s)
Adult , Bivalvia , Cohort Effect , Communicable Diseases , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemiology , Hepatitis A virus , Hepatitis A , Hepatitis , Humans , Immunization , Incidence , Korea , Public Health , Seafood , Vaccination
7.
Article in Korean | WPRIM | ID: wpr-766611

ABSTRACT

Rapid aging, economic development, lifestyle westernization, hygiene improvement, and scientific development have contributed for the epidemiologic changes of gastric cancer. This study aimed to review the descriptive epidemiology, risk factors, and prevention of gastric cancer in Korea. Age-standardized incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have decreased and showed age effect and cohort effect. Annual percent change in the incidence of gastric cancer has been prominent in recent years. Major risk factor of gastric cancer is Helicobacter pylori infection. Although H. pylori infection was associated with only non-cardia gastric cancer in meta-analysis, H. pylori infection was associated with both non-cardia and cardia gastric cancer in Asian studies. The estimated population attributable fraction of H. pylori regarding gastric cancer incidence was about 76% in Korean. Cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking was associated with gastric cancer regardless of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer. Cigarette smoking was estimated to be responsible for 28% of gastric cancer incidence in men and 2% in women. Obesity was risk factor for cardia gastric cancer but not non-cardia gastric cancer. This discrepancy between cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer was consistently shown in epidemiologic studies in Korea. Salt intake was also well-known risk factor of gastric cancer and prevalence of high sodium intake more than 2,000mg in Korean was 81.5%. For primary prevention of gastric cancer, eradication of H. pylori and life-style modification including no smoking, no alcohol drinking, weight control, and low sodium intake are important. Gastric endoscopy is recommended for secondary prevention of gastric cancer.


Subject(s)
Aging , Alcohol Drinking , Asian Continental Ancestry Group , Cardia , Cohort Effect , Economic Development , Endoscopy , Epidemiologic Studies , Epidemiology , Female , Helicobacter pylori , Humans , Hygiene , Incidence , Korea , Life Style , Male , Mortality , Obesity , Prevalence , Primary Prevention , Risk Factors , Secondary Prevention , Smoke , Smoking , Sodium , Stomach Neoplasms
8.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-766133

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Outbreaks of scarlet fever in Mexico in 1999, Hong Kong and mainland China in 2011, and England in 2014-2016 have received global attention, and the number of notified cases in Korean children, including in Jeju Province, has also increased since 2010. To identify relevant hypotheses regarding this emerging outbreak, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of scarlet fever incidence was conducted among children in Jeju Province, Korea. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The age and year variables were categorized into 5 groups, respectively. After calculating the crude incidence rate (CIR) for age and calendar year groups, the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct the APC analysis. RESULTS: In total, 2345 cases were identified from 2002 to 2016. Scarlet fever was most common in the 0-2 age group, and boys presented more cases than girls. Since the CIR decreased with age between 2002 and 2016, the age and period effect decreased in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting a cohort effect shifted from negative to positive in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be explained through the cohort effect. As children born after 2009 showed a higher risk of scarlet fever, further descriptive epidemiological studies are needed.


Subject(s)
Child , China , Cohort Effect , Delivery of Health Care , Disease Outbreaks , England , Epidemiologic Studies , Exotoxins , Female , Hong Kong , Humans , Incidence , Insurance , Korea , Methods , Mexico , National Health Programs , Scarlet Fever , Streptococcus pyogenes
9.
Khartoum Medical Journal ; 12(1): 1558-1563, 2019. ilus
Article in English | AIM, AIM | ID: biblio-1264632

ABSTRACT

Background and objectives: Cleft defects are among the most visible congenital defects worldwide and congenital heart disease (CHD) being one of the most common associated anomalies. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of CHD among a cohort of Sudanese patients with cleft lip and/or palate. Patients and Methods: All patients who presented to Soba University Hospital with cleft lip and/or palate from March 2009 to March 2015 were included. Results:Out of 381 patients included; 168 patients (44%) had cleft lip and palate (CLP), 156 (41%) had cleft lip (CL) and isolated cleft palate (CP) was found in 57 patients (15%). Facial dysmorphic features were identified in 57 (15%) and cardiac defects in 42 (11%) patients. Ventricular septal defect (VSD) was diagnosed in 16 patients (38%), and ASD in 12 (30.9%). Other macroscopic anomalies were identified in 57 patients (15%) and were associated with CHD (P<0.001). Significant association was found between the type of cleft and CHD (P<0.002), as cardiac defects were maximally observed among CP cases (21%) followed by CLP cases (13%) then CL cases (5.12%). Significant association was also found between facial dysmorphic occurrence and CHD (P < 0.001). Conclusion: CHD is a common anomaly in cleft population. The pattern of CHD is consistent with the literature with VSD being the most frequent. The cardiac defects are most prevalent in CP group. Echocardiography is justified for screening of CHD due to the relatively higher incidence of CHD among clefts patients than in general population


Subject(s)
Cohort Effect , Disease , Heart Defects, Congenital , Sudan
10.
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 35(12): e00008719, 2019. tab, graf
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-1055598

ABSTRACT

O objetivo foi avaliar o efeito da idade, período e coorte de nascimento na evolução temporal da mortalidade por homicídios em homens nos estados das regiões Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil, entre o período de 1980 a 2014. Estudo ecológico de tendência temporal. Os modelos APC foram estimados usando funções estimáveis na inferência dos parâmetros. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do SUS. As taxas de mortalidade por homicídio, segundo estados, foram padronizadas pelo método direto, tendo, como população padrão, a mundial, proposta pela Organização Mundial da Saúde. A Região Nordeste apresentou 317.711 óbitos por homicídios, e o Sudeste, 544.640 óbitos, correspondendo, respectivamente, a uma taxa média padronizada por 100.000 homens de 58,68 óbitos e 64,68 óbitos. As maiores taxas de mortalidade médias padronizadas foram observadas nos estados de Alagoas (157,74 óbitos) e Pernambuco (109,58 óbitos). Em todos os estados, observou-se aumento da mortalidade até a terceira década de vida, com redução progressiva para as demais faixas etárias. Verificou-se tendência ascendente para todos os estados da Região Nordeste, Minas Gerais e Espírito Santo; nos demais estados, houve descendência das taxas. Em todos os estados, observou-se aumento do risco de óbito nas gerações mais jovens, com exceção do Estado de São Paulo que mostrou perfil inverso. Os achados do presente estudo podem correlacionar-se com o processo de descontinuidade de coorte, no qual integrantes de coortes largas encontram menor oportunidade de acesso a emprego, renda e educação, aumentando o risco de envolvimento com a criminalidade e morte por homicídios.


The objective was to assess the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on the time trend in mortality from homicides in men in the states of the Northeast and Southeast regions of Brazil from 1980 to 2014. This was an ecological time trend study. PCA models were estimated using estimable functions in inference of the parameters. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Informatics Department. State-by-state mortality rates from homicide were standardized by the direct method, with the world population as the standard, as proposed by the World Health Organization. The Northeast region recorded 317,711 deaths from homicides and the Southeast 544,640 deaths, corresponding, respectively, corresponding to mean standardized rates of 58.68 and 64.68 deaths per 100,000 men. The highest mean standardized mortality rates were observed in the states of Alagoas (157.74 deaths) and Pernambuco (109.58 deaths). All the states showed an increase in mortality up to the third decade of life, with a progressive reduction in the other age brackets. There was an upward trend in all the states of the Northeast and in Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo in the Southeast, while in the other states there was a downward trend. All the states showed an increase in the risk of death in the younger age brackets, except for the state of São Paulo, which showed the inverse profile. The current study's findings may correlate with the process of discontinuity in the cohort, in which members of wide cohorts found less opportunity for access to employment, income, and education, thus increasing the risk of involvement in crime and death from homicide.


El objetivo fue evaluar el efecto de la edad, período y cohorte de nacimiento, en la evolución temporal de la mortalidad por homicidios en hombres, en los estados de las regiones Nordeste y Sudeste, Brasil, entre el período de 1980 a 2014. Se realizó un estudio ecológico de tendencia temporal. Los modelos APC se estimaron usando funciones estimables en la inferencia de los parámetros. Los datos de mortalidad y los datos poblacionales se obtuvieron mediante el Departamento de Informática del Sistema Único de Salud. Las tasas de mortalidad por homicidio, según los diferentes estados, se estandarizaron mediante método directo, considerando como población patrón la mundial, propuesta por la Organización Mundial de la Salud. La Región Nordeste presentó 317.711 óbitos por homicidios y el Sudeste 544.640 óbitos, correspondiendo a una tasa media estandarizada por 100.000 hombres de 58,68 óbitos y 64,68 óbitos, respectivamente. Las mayores tasas de mortalidad medias estandarizadas se observaron en los estados de Alagoas (157,74 óbitos) y Pernambuco (109,58 óbitos). En todos los estados se observó un aumento de la mortalidad hasta la tercera década de vida, con una reducción progresiva para las demás franjas etarias. Se verificó una tendencia ascendente para todos los estados de la Región Nordeste, Minas Gerais y Espírito Santo, en los demás estados hubo un descenso de las tasas. En todos los estados, se observó un aumento del riesgo de óbito en las generaciones más jóvenes, con excepción del Estado de São Paulo, que mostró un perfil inverso. Los hallazgos del presente estudio pueden correlacionarse con el proceso de discontinuidad de cohorte, en donde integrantes de cohortes más grandes encuentran una menor oportunidad de acceso al empleo, renta y educación, así como un aumento el riesgo de implicación en la criminalidad y muerte por homicidios.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Young Adult , Homicide/statistics & numerical data , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Effect , Residence Characteristics , Risk Factors , Cohort Studies , Mortality , Age Factors , Middle Aged
11.
Sex., salud soc. (Rio J.) ; (29): 235-252, mayo-ago. 2018.
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-979361

ABSTRACT

Resumo: Este artigo tem como objetivo discutir homossexualidade masculina e geração a partir de uma análise crítica de Bailão, curta-metragem documental lançado em 2009. Com base nos discursos dos entrevistados, exploramos suas trajetórias e regimes de visibilidade, considerando-os como representativos de uma geração que atravessou mudanças profundas no que concerne à homossexualidade masculina no Brasil e, em especial, na cidade de São Paulo. Em seguida, debruçamo-nos sobre eventos que marcaram o início de uma visibilidade positiva para homens homossexuais a partir da década de 1970, bem como a epidemia de Aids na década seguinte. Concluímos com a percepção de que não se trata meramente de um filme sobre a danceteria que o intitula mas, acima de tudo, sobre uma miríade de subjetividades e acontecimentos cuja importância para o segmento populacional analisado não deve ser subestimada.


Abstract: This article discusses male homosexuality and generation based on a critical review of Bailão, a short documentary released in 2009, through an analysis of its interviews. The trajectories narrated by the interviewees and its visibility regimes are explored as representatives of a generation that underwent profound changes regarding male homosexuality in Brazil and, most especially, in the city of São Paulo. We take an in-depth look at events that marked the beginning of a positive visibility for homosexual men starting in the 1970s, as well as the AIDS epidemic in the following decade are. We conclude with the perception that Bailão is not merely a movie about the nightclub for which it is named but, above all, about a wide range of subjectivities and events not to be underestimated in its importance for the population analyzed.


Resumen: Este artículo tiene como objetivo discutir homosexualidad masculina y generación a partir de un análisis crítico de Bailão, cortometraje documental lanzado en 2009. A partir de los discursos de los entrevistados, exploramos sus trayectorias y regímenes de visibilidad, considerándolos como representativos de una generación que pasó por cambios profundos en lo concerniente a la homosexualidad masculina en Brasil y, en especial, en la ciudad de São Paulo. Posteriormente, nos ocupamos de los eventos que marcaron el inicio de una visibilidad positiva para hombres homosexuales a partir de la década de 1970, así como de la epidemia de HIV/Sida en la década siguiente. Concluimos apuntando que no se trata de una película solamente sobre la discoteca homónima, sino, antes que nada, sobre un amplio espectro de subjetividades y de acontecimientos cuya importancia para el segmento poblacional analizado no debe ser subestimada.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Socialization , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome , Homosexuality, Male , Brazil , Bereavement , Cohort Effect , HIV , Risk Assessment , Epidemics
12.
Epidemiology and Health ; : e2018054-2018.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-721380

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea. METHODS: The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee provided by the National Health Insurance Service, Korea. The selection criteria were children aged 2–13 years who visited any healthcare center due to varicella from 2005 to 2016 while residing in Jeju-do. After calculating the birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates by age and year, the intrinsic estimator method was used to perform the APC analysis. RESULTS: As the annual crude incidence rates decreased with increasing age between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effects also decreased. The intrinsic estimator coefficients suggesting the cohort effect shifted from positive to negative in 2011, the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effects. However, further studies to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.


Subject(s)
Chickenpox Vaccine , Chickenpox , Child , Cohort Effect , Delivery of Health Care , Epidemiology , Fees and Charges , Humans , Immunization Programs , Immunization Schedule , Incidence , Insurance , Korea , Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine , Methods , National Health Programs , Parturition , Patient Selection , Vaccines
13.
Cad. Saúde Pública (Online) ; 34(3): e00038017, 2018. tab, graf
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-889904

ABSTRACT

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a contribuição do efeito da idade, do período e da coorte de nascimento na mortalidade por câncer colorretal. Foram analisados dados de óbitos pela neoplasia entre indivíduos com mais de 35 anos de idade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, extraídos do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) entre 1980 e 2014. As taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas por gênero e faixa etária. O efeito da idade, período e coorte de nascimento foi estimado pelo método que utiliza funções estimáveis: desvios, curvaturas e drift, na biblioteca Epi do software R. As taxas de mortalidade por câncer colorretal padronizadas foram 27,37/100 mil homens e 21,83/100 mil mulheres em 2014. Verificou-se aumento da mortalidade pela neoplasia entre 1980 e 2014, sendo as taxas de mortalidade entre homens superiores às das mulheres após a década de 1990. O efeito idade foi observado com o aumento das taxas e o envelhecimento. A análise das gerações mostrou o menor risco de óbito nas coortes mais antigas comparadas às mais recentes coortes, o que pode estar ligado à adoção do estilo de vida ocidental. Tal cenário aponta a relevância da implantação de estratégias de rastreamento visando ao diagnóstico e ao tratamento precoce de lesões precursoras da doença.


The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on mortality from colorectal cancer. The study analyzed data on deaths from this cancer in individuals over 35 years of age in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM) from 1980 to 2014. Mortality rates were calculated by gender and age bracket. The effect of age, period, and birth cohort was estimated by the method that uses estimable functions: deviations, curves, and drift in the Epi library of the R software. Standardized mortality rates from colorectal cancer were 27.37/100,000 men and 21.83/100,000 women in 2014. The data showed an increase in mortality from this cancer from 1980 to 2014, and mortality rates were higher in men than in women after the 1990s. Age effect was observed with an increase in the rates and aging. Generational analysis showed lower risk of death in older versus younger cohorts, possibly related to the adoption of the Western lifestyle. This scenario underscores the need for screening strategies aimed at early diagnosis and treatment of precursor lesions.


El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar la contribución del efecto de la edad, del período y de la cohorte de nacimiento en la mortalidad por cáncer colorrectal. Se analizaron datos de óbitos por la neoplasia entre individuos con más de 35 años de edad del estado de Río de Janeiro, Brasil, extraídos del Sistema de Informaciones sobre Mortalidad (SIM) entre 1980 y 2014. Las tasas de mortalidad fueron calculadas por género y franja de edad. El efecto de la edad, período y cohorte de nacimiento fue estimada por el método que utiliza funciones estimables: desvíos, curvaturas y drift, en la biblioteca Epi del software R. Las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer colorrectal estandarizadas fueron 27,37/100 mil hombres y 21,83/100 mil mujeres en 2014. Se verificó un aumento de la mortalidad por la neoplasia entre 1980 y 2014, siendo las tasas de mortalidad entre hombres superiores a las de las mujeres tras la década de 1990. El efecto edad se observó con el aumento de las tasas y el envejecimiento. El análisis de las generaciones mostró un menor riesgo de óbito en las cohortes más antiguas, comparadas con las cohortes más recientes, lo que puede estar vinculado a la adopción del estilo de vida occidental. Tal escenario apunta la relevancia de la implantación de estrategias de monitoreo con el objetivo del diagnóstico y el tratamiento precoz de lesiones precursoras de la enfermedad.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Colorectal Neoplasms/mortality , Time Factors , Urban Population , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Effect , Sex Factors , Risk Factors , Age Factors
14.
Epidemiology and Health ; : 2018054-2018.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-786824

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea.METHODS: The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee provided by the National Health Insurance Service, Korea. The selection criteria were children aged 2–13 years who visited any healthcare center due to varicella from 2005 to 2016 while residing in Jeju-do. After calculating the birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates by age and year, the intrinsic estimator method was used to perform the APC analysis.RESULTS: As the annual crude incidence rates decreased with increasing age between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effects also decreased. The intrinsic estimator coefficients suggesting the cohort effect shifted from positive to negative in 2011, the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do.CONCLUSIONS: The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effects. However, further studies to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.


Subject(s)
Chickenpox Vaccine , Chickenpox , Child , Cohort Effect , Delivery of Health Care , Epidemiology , Fees and Charges , Humans , Immunization Programs , Immunization Schedule , Incidence , Insurance , Korea , Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine , Methods , National Health Programs , Parturition , Patient Selection , Vaccines
15.
Article in Korean | WPRIM | ID: wpr-740284

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. METHODS: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. RESULTS: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show ‘healthy ageing’ phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of −1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%–1.80% in healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSION: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, ‘healthy ageing effect’ suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.


Subject(s)
Cohort Effect , Cohort Studies , Delivery of Health Care , Forecasting , Health Expenditures , Korea , Life Expectancy , Methods , Parturition , Population Dynamics , Social Change
16.
Ciênc. Saúde Colet ; 22(9): 2949-2962, Set. 2017. tab, graf
Article in Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-890439

ABSTRACT

Resumo Objetivou-se analisar o efeito da idade-período e do coorte de nascimento (APC) nos homicídios em mulheres. Estudo ecológico, que analisou os registros de óbitos por agressão em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, nas regiões geográficas brasileiras, entre 1980 a 2014. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. A análise da tendência se deu por meio da regressão binomial negativa e os efeitos APC foram analisados utilizando funções estimáveis. A taxa de mortalidade média para o período foi de 5,13 óbitos por 100.000 mulheres, sendo as maiores taxas observadas na região Centro-Oeste (7,98 óbitos), Sudeste (4,78 óbitos), Norte (4,77 óbitos), Nordeste (4,05 óbitos) e Sul (3,82 óbitos). Todas as regiões apresentaram redução do risco de morte no período de 2010 a 2014, exceto a Nordeste (RR = 1,06, IC 95% 1,02- 1,10). Verificou-se aumento progressivo do risco de homicídio para as mulheres nascidas de 1955 a 1959, em todas as regiões brasileiras. As mulheres mais jovens apresentam maior risco de morrer por homicídios em todas as regiões geográficas brasileiras. Foi expressivo o perfil ascendente das taxas de mortalidade por homicídio segundo coorte de nascimento, sendo o maior risco verificado em mulheres nascidas em 2000-2004.


Abstract The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of age-period-birth cohort (APC) on female homicides. This is an ecological study which analyzed the violence-related death records of women aged 10 years and older, in the Brazilian geographic regions, between 1980 and 2014. Data on mortality were extracted from the Mortality Information System. The trend analysis was conducted using negative binomial regression and APC effects were analyzed using estimable functions. The average mortality rate for the period was 5.13 deaths per 100,000 women, with the highest rates observed in the Central-West (7.98 deaths), followed by the Southeast (4.78 deaths), North (4.77 deaths), Northeast (4.05 deaths) and South (3.82 deaths) regions. All regions presented a decrease in the risk of death in the period from 2010 to 2014, except for the Northeast region (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10). There was a progressive increase in the homicide risk for women born from 1955 to 1959 in all Brazilian regions. Younger women are at higher risk of dying from homicides in all Brazilian geographic regions. The upward trend of homicide mortality rates according to birth cohort was significant and the highest risk was observed in women born between 2000 and 2004.


Subject(s)
Humans , Female , Child , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Young Adult , Violence/statistics & numerical data , Mortality/trends , Homicide/statistics & numerical data , Brazil/epidemiology , Cohort Effect , Age Factors , Health Information Systems/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged
17.
Ann. hepatol ; 16(3): 421-429, May.-Jun. 2017. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS | ID: biblio-887254

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Background. Evidence supporting benefit of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in reducing mortality is not well-established. The effect of HCC surveillance in reducing mortality was assessed by an inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW)- based analysis controlled for inherent bias and confounders in observational studies. Material and methods. This retrospective cohort study was conducted on 446 patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2013 at a major referral center. Surveillance was defined as having at least 1 ultrasound test within a year before HCC diagnosis. Primary outcome was survival estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with lead-time bias adjustment and compared using the log-rank test. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (Cl) were computed using conventional Cox and weighted Cox proportional hazards analysis with IPTW adjustment. Results. Of the 446 patients, 103 (23.1%) were diagnosed with HCC through surveillance. The surveillance group had more patients with the Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer stage A (80.6% vs. 33.8%, P < 0.0001), more patients eligible for potentially curative treatment (73.8% vs. 44.9%, P < 0.0001), and longer median survival (49.6 vs. 15.9 months, P < 0.0001). By conventional multivariate Cox analysis, HR (95% Cl) of surveillance was 0.63 (0.45-0.87), P = 0.005. The estimated effect of surveillance remained similar in the IPTW-adjusted Cox analysis (HR: 0.57; 95% Cl: 0.43-0.76, P < 0.001). Conclusions. HCC surveillance by ultrasound is associated with a 37% reduction in mortality. Even though surveillance is recommended in all guidelines, but in practice, it is underutilized. Interventions are needed to increase surveillance rate for improving HCC outcome.


Subject(s)
Humans , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/mortality , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/therapy , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/diagnostic imaging , Thailand , Time Factors , Cohort Effect , Proportional Hazards Models , Predictive Value of Tests , Retrospective Studies , Ultrasonography/standards , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Risk Assessment , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Early Detection of Cancer/methods , Liver Neoplasms/mortality , Liver Neoplasms/therapy , Liver Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging , Neoplasm Staging
18.
Epidemiology and Health ; : e2017056-2017.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-721354

ABSTRACT

This study aims to provide a systematical introduction of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to South Korean readers who are unfamiliar with this method (we provide an extended version of this study in Korean). As health data in South Korea has substantially accumulated, population-level studies that explore long-term trends of health status and health inequalities and identify macrosocial determinants of the trends are needed. Analyzing long-term trends requires to discern independent effects of age, period, and cohort using APC analysis. Most existing health and aging literature have used cross-sectional or short-term available panel data to identify age or period effects ignoring cohort effects. This under-use of APC analysis may be attributed to the identification (ID) problem caused by the perfect linear dependency across age, period, and cohort. This study explores recently developed three APC models to address the ID problem and adequately estimate the effects of A-P-C: intrinsic estimator-APC models for tabular age by period data; hierarchical cross-classified random effects models for repeated cross-sectional data; and hierarchical APC-growth curve models for accelerated longitudinal panel data. An analytic exemplar for each model was provided. APC analysis may contribute to identifying biological, historical, and socioeconomic determinants in long-term trends of health status and health inequalities as well as examining Korean's aging trajectories and temporal trends of period and cohort effects. For designing effective health policies that improve Korean population's health and reduce health inequalities, it is essential to understand independent effects of the three temporal factors by using the innovative APC models.


Subject(s)
Aging , Cohort Effect , Cohort Studies , Health Policy , Korea , Methods , Socioeconomic Factors
19.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-63851

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer among ≥ 20-year-old women from 1993 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Statistical Information Service. Age-standardized rates were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends in the incidence and mortality rate. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period and cohort. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 32.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 15.9 per 100,000 in 2012 (annual percent change [APC], –3.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], –4.2% to –3.6%). The mortality rate decreased from 5.2 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, –4.8%; 95% CI, –5.1% to –4.4%); however, the incidence and mortality rates among young women (< 30 years old) increased. An age-period-cohort model of the incidence and mortality rate showed decreasing period effects between 1993 and 2008 and decreasing cohort effects between 1928 and 1973, while birth cohorts after 1973 exhibited slight increases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer. CONCLUSION: Recent decreases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer were due to decreases in the period and cohort effects, which reflect the implementation of a cancer screening program and changes in lifestyle. However, our findings also highlighted an increase in cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate among young women born after 1973.


Subject(s)
Cohort Effect , Cohort Studies , Early Detection of Cancer , Female , Humans , Incidence , Information Services , Korea , Life Style , Mortality , Parturition , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms , Young Adult
20.
Epidemiology and Health ; : 2017056-2017.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-786762

ABSTRACT

This study aims to provide a systematical introduction of age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to South Korean readers who are unfamiliar with this method (we provide an extended version of this study in Korean). As health data in South Korea has substantially accumulated, population-level studies that explore long-term trends of health status and health inequalities and identify macrosocial determinants of the trends are needed. Analyzing long-term trends requires to discern independent effects of age, period, and cohort using APC analysis. Most existing health and aging literature have used cross-sectional or short-term available panel data to identify age or period effects ignoring cohort effects. This under-use of APC analysis may be attributed to the identification (ID) problem caused by the perfect linear dependency across age, period, and cohort. This study explores recently developed three APC models to address the ID problem and adequately estimate the effects of A-P-C: intrinsic estimator-APC models for tabular age by period data; hierarchical cross-classified random effects models for repeated cross-sectional data; and hierarchical APC-growth curve models for accelerated longitudinal panel data. An analytic exemplar for each model was provided. APC analysis may contribute to identifying biological, historical, and socioeconomic determinants in long-term trends of health status and health inequalities as well as examining Korean's aging trajectories and temporal trends of period and cohort effects. For designing effective health policies that improve Korean population's health and reduce health inequalities, it is essential to understand independent effects of the three temporal factors by using the innovative APC models.


Subject(s)
Aging , Cohort Effect , Cohort Studies , Health Policy , Korea , Methods , Socioeconomic Factors
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