Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 1.139
Filter
1.
Caracas; Observatorio Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación; 15 ago. 2020. 11-25 p. ilus, tab.(Observador del Conocimiento. Revista Especializada en Gestión Social del Conocimiento, 5, 3).
Monography in Spanish | LILACS (Americas), LIVECS | ID: biblio-1119237

ABSTRACT

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es emplear modelos ARIMA para la estimación de nuevos contagios usando datos públicos disponibles para Venezuela y la región suramericana, actualmente foco principal de un segundo brote de la COVID-19. Se realiza la predicción a 30 días del número de casos de Covid-19 en países suramericanos usando los datos públicos disponibles. Se emplearon modelos ARIMA para estimar el impacto de nuevos contagios en las dinámicas de infección para Suramérica. Desde la aparición del primer caso de la nueva neumonía Covid-19 en China, esta enfermedad se ha convertido en un problema de salud pública global y representa un gran reto el control de la infección para los países de Suramérica. Al 24 de junio de 2020 un total de 1.866.090 casos han sido detectados en la región y en el caso particular de Venezuela un total de 4.365 casos. El rápido incremento en el número de casos y la alta tasa de contagios asociado con el virus han llevado al desarrollo de distintas aproximaciones matemáticas, tales como: modelos SIR, SEIR, redes neuronales y regresiones lineales que permitan predecir la probable evolución de la epidemia. Los modelos ARIMA han sido empleados con éxito en otras infecciones como influenza, malaria, SARS, entre otras. Los resultados de las estimaciones realizadas empleando estos modelos muestran que aún en la región hacen falta mayores esfuerzos que conlleven al control de la epidemia(AU)


The main objective of this work is to use ARIMA models for the estimation of new contagions using public data available for Venezuela and the South American region, currently the main focus of a second COVID19 outbreak. A 30-day prediction is made for the num-ber of Covid-19 cases in South American countries using available public data. ARIMA models were used to estimate the impact of new contagions on infection dynamics for South America Since the appearance of the first case of the new Covid-19 pneumonia in China, which has become a global public health problem and the great challenge that the infection has represented for the countries of South America to June 24, 2020, a total of 1,866,090 cases have been detected and in the particular case of Venezuela a total of 4,365 cases have been detected for the same date. The rapid increase in the number of cases and the high rate of contagion associated with the virus have led to the development of different mathematical approaches, such as: SIR, SEIR models, neural networks and linear regressions that allow predicting the probable evolution of the epidemic. The ARIMA model has been successfully used in other infections such as influenza, malaria, SARS, among others. In the following work, the 30 - day prediction of the number of Covid-19 cases in South American countries is made using public data available. The results of the estimates made using these models show that even in the region, greater efforts are needed to control the epidemic(AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Coronavirus Infections , Pandemics , Forecasting/methods
2.
Rev. salud pública ; 22(2): e286432, mar.-abr. 2020. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-1115871

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Objetivo Predecir el número de casos de COVID-19 en la ciudad de Cali-Colombia mediante el desarrollo de un modelo SEIR. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo determinista compartimental SEIR considerando los estados: susceptibles (S), expuestos (E), infectados (I) y recuperados (R). Los parámetros del modelo fueron seleccionados de acuerdo a la revisión de literatura. En el caso de la tasa de letalidad, se usaron los datos de la Secretaría de Salud Municipal de Cali. Se plantearon varios escenarios teniendo en cuenta variaciones en el número básico de reproducción (R0) y en la tasa de letalidad; además, se comparó la predicción hasta el 9 de abril con los datos observados. Resultados A través del modelo SEIR se encontró que, con el número básico de reproducción más alto (2,6) y utilizando la letalidad calculada para la ciudad de 2,0%, el número máximo de casos se alcanzaría el primero de junio con 195 666 (prevalencia); sin embargo, al comparar los casos observados con los esperados, al inicio la ocurrencia observada estaba por encima de la proyectada; pero luego cambia la tendencia con una disminución marcada de la pendiente. Conclusiones Los modelos epidemiológicos SEIR son métodos muy utilizados para la proyección de casos en enfermedades infecciosas; sin embargo, se debe tener en cuenta que son modelos deterministas que pueden utilizar parámetros supuestos y podrían generar resultados imprecisos.(AU)


ABSTRACT Objective To predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in the city of Cali-Colombia through the development of a SEIR model. Methods A SEIR compartmental deterministic model was used considering the states: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). The model parameters were selected according to the literature review, in the case of the case fatality rate data from the Municipal Secretary of Health were used. Several scenarios were considered taking into account variations in the basic number of reproduction (R0), and the prediction until april 9 was compared with the observed data. Results Through the SEIR model it was found that with the highest basic number of reproduction [2,6] and using the case fatality rate for the city of 2,0%, the maximum number of cases would be reached on June 1 with 195 666 (prevalence). However, when comparing the observed with the expected cases, at the beginning the observed occurrence was above the projected, but then the trend changes decreasing the slope. Conclusions SEIR epidemiological models are widely used methods for projecting cases in infectious diseases, however it must be taken into account that they are deterministic models that can use assumed parameters and could generate imprecise results.(AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Colombia/epidemiology , Forecasting
3.
Rev. inf. cient ; 99(1): 46-54, ene.-feb. 2020. tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-1093929

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Introducción: En la valoración de dificultad para realizar la laringoscopia convencional no se realza la integración necesaria de aspectos clínicos esenciales relacionados con el control respiratorio. Objetivo: Validar un modelo de predicción de una laringoscopia anatómicamente difícil en el paciente que requiere de intubación orotraqueal. Método: Se realizó un estudio analítico en una población de 17 966 pacientes con necesidad de laringoscopia directa para una intubación orotraqueal con fines quirúrgicos en el Hospital General Docente "Dr. Agostinho Neto" de Guantánamo entre el 2015 y el 2018. Se determinó por muestreo aleatorizado una muestra de 17 068 pacientes. Se estudiaron las siguientes variables: estigma periférico para laringoscopia difícil, laringoscopia difícil pos-inducción anestésico, evaluación laringoscópica según Cormack-Lehane, valor diagnóstico del modelo de evaluación predictiva para laringoscopia. Resultados: Los altos grados en la clasificación de aspectos clínicos predictivos y la coexistencia con la alteración morfológica de la epiglotis fueron los marcadores más asociados con la probabilidad de laringoscopia anatómicamente difícil. Con la integración de cuatros aspectos clínicos esenciales se identificó el grado de dificultad probable para visualizar las cuerdas vocales. Conclusiones: Se diseñó un modelo que posibilitó la predicción de una laringoscopia anatómicamente difícil, cuya validación certificó su viabilidad para aplicarlo en la práctica médica.


ABSTRACT Introduction: In assessing the difficulty of performing conventional laryngoscopy, the necessary integration of essential clinical aspects related to respiratory control is not enhanced. Objective: To validate a prediction model of an anatomically difficult laryngoscopy in the patient that requires orotracheal intubation. Method: An analytical study was carried out in a population of 17,966 patients in need of direct laryngoscopy for an orotracheal intubation for surgical purposes at the General Teaching Hospital "Dr. Agostinho Neto" from Guantanamo between 2015 and 2018. A sample of 17,068 patients was determined by randomized sampling. The following variables were studied: peripheral stigma for difficult laryngoscopy, difficult laryngoscopy after anesthetic induction, laryngoscopic evaluation according to Cormack-Lehane, diagnostic value of the predictive evaluation model for laryngoscopy. Results: The high degrees in the classification of predictive clinical aspects and the coexistence with the morphological alteration of the epiglottis were the markers most associated with the probability of anatomically difficult laryngoscopy. With the integration of four essential clinical aspects, the degree of probable difficulty in visualizing the vocal cords was identified. Conclusions: A model was designed that allowed the prediction of an anatomically difficult laryngoscopy, whose validation certified its feasibility to apply it in medical practice.


RESUMO Introdução: Na avaliação da dificuldade na realização da laringoscopia convencional, a integração necessária dos aspectos clínicos essenciais relacionados ao controle respiratório não é aprimorada. Objetivo: Validar um modelo de previsão de uma laringoscopia anatomicamente difícil no paciente que necessita de intubação orotraqueal. Método: Foi realizado um estudo analítico em uma população de 17.966 pacientes com necessidade de laringoscopia direta para intubação orotraqueal para fins cirúrgicos no Hospital Geral de Ensino "Dr. Agostinho Neto" de Guantánamo entre 2015 e 2018. Uma amostra de 17.068 pacientes foi determinada por amostragem aleatória. Foram estudadas as seguintes variáveis: estigma periférico para laringoscopia difícil, laringoscopia difícil após indução anestésica, avaliação laringoscópica segundo Cormack-Lehane, valor diagnóstico do modelo de avaliação preditiva para laringoscopia. Resultados: Os altos graus na classificação dos aspectos clínicos preditivos e a coexistência com a alteração morfológica da epiglote foram os marcadores mais associados à probabilidade de laringoscopia anatomicamente difícil. Com a integração de quatro aspectos clínicos essenciais, foi identificado o grau de provável dificuldade na visualização das cordas vocais. Conclusões: Foi elaborado um modelo que permitia prever uma laringoscopia anatomicamente difícil, cuja validação atestava sua viabilidade de aplicá-la na prática médica.


Subject(s)
Humans , Forecasting/methods , Laryngoscopy/methods
4.
Article in English | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-785342

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The pollen calendar is the simplest forecasting method for pollen concentrations. As pollen concentrations are liable to seasonal variations due to alterations in climate and land-use, it is necessary to update the pollen calendar using recent data. To attenuate the impact of considerable temporal and spatial variability in pollen concentrations on the pollen calendar, it is essential to employ a new methodology for its creation.METHODS: A pollen calendar was produced in Korea using data from recent observations, and a new method for creating the calendar was proposed, considering both risk levels and temporal resolution of pollen concentrations. A probability distribution was used for smoothing concentrations and determining risk levels. Airborne pollen grains were collected between 2007 and 2017 at 8 stations; 13 allergenic pollens, including those of alder, Japanese cedar, birch, hazelnut, oak, elm, pine, ginkgo, chestnut, grasses, ragweed, mugwort and Japanese hop, were identified from the collected grains.RESULTS: The concentrations of each pollen depend on locations and seasons due to large variability in species distribution and their environmental condition. In the descending order of concentration, pine, oak and Japanese hop pollens were found to be the most common in Korea. The pollen concentrations were high in spring and autumn, and those of oak and Japanese hop were probably the most common cause of allergy symptoms in spring and autumn, respectively. High Japanese cedar pollen counts were observed in Jeju, while moderate concentrations were in Jeonju, Gwangju and Busan.CONCLUSIONS: A new methodology for the creation of a pollen calendar was developed to attenuate the impact of large temporal and spatial variability in pollen concentrations. This revised calendar should be available to the public and allergic patients to prevent aggravation of pollen allergy.


Subject(s)
Alnus , Ambrosia , Artemisia , Asian Continental Ancestry Group , Betula , Climate , Corylus , Cryptomeria , Forecasting , Ginkgo biloba , Humans , Hypersensitivity , Korea , Methods , Poaceae , Pollen , Rhinitis, Allergic, Seasonal , Seasons
5.
J. bras. nefrol ; 41(2): 284-287, Apr.-June 2019.
Article in English | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-1012548

ABSTRACT

Abstract Introduction: The prediction of post transplantation outcomes is clinically important and involves several problems. The current prediction models based on standard statistics are very complex, difficult to validate and do not provide accurate prediction. Machine learning, a statistical technique that allows the computer to make future predictions using previous experiences, is beginning to be used in order to solve these issues. In the field of kidney transplantation, computational forecasting use has been reported in prediction of chronic allograft rejection, delayed graft function, and graft survival. This paper describes machine learning principles and steps to make a prediction and performs a brief analysis of the most recent applications of its application in literature. Discussion: There is compelling evidence that machine learning approaches based on donor and recipient data are better in providing improved prognosis of graft outcomes than traditional analysis. The immediate expectations that emerge from this new prediction modelling technique are that it will generate better clinical decisions based on dynamic and local practice data and optimize organ allocation as well as post transplantation care management. Despite the promising results, there is no substantial number of studies yet to determine feasibility of its application in a clinical setting. Conclusion: The way we deal with storage data in electronic health records will radically change in the coming years and machine learning will be part of clinical daily routine, whether to predict clinical outcomes or suggest diagnosis based on institutional experience.


Resumo Introdução: A predição de resultados pós-transplante é clinicamente importante e envolve vários problemas. Os atuais modelos de previsão baseados em padrões estatísticos são muito complexos, difíceis de validar e não fornecem previsões precisas. Machine Learning, é uma técnica estatística que permite que o computador faça previsões futuras usando experiências anteriores, está começando a ser usada para resolver essas questões. No campo do transplante renal, o uso da previsão computacional foi relatado na predição de rejeição crônica de aloenxerto, função tardia do enxerto e sobrevida do enxerto. Este artigo descreve os princípios e etapas de machine learning para fazer uma previsão e realiza uma breve análise das aplicações mais recentes de seu uso na literatura. Discussão: Existem evidências convincentes de que as abordagens de machine learning baseadas nos dados do doador e do receptor são melhores para proporcionar melhor prognóstico dos resultados do enxerto do que a análise tradicional. As expectativas imediatas que emergem dessa nova técnica de modelagem de previsão são que ela gerará melhores decisões clínicas baseadas em dados de práticas dinâmicas e locais e aperfeiçoará a alocação de órgãos, bem como o gerenciamento de cuidados pós-transplante. Apesar dos resultados promissores, ainda não há um número substancial de estudos para determinar a viabilidade de sua aplicação em um cenário clínico. Conclusão: A forma como lidamos com dados de armazenamento em prontuários eletrônicos de saúde mudará radicalmente nos próximos anos e a machine learning fará parte da rotina clínica diária, seja para prever resultados clínicos ou sugerir um diagnóstico baseado na experiência institucional.


Subject(s)
Humans , Machine Learning , Forecasting/methods , Prognosis , Tissue Donors , Survival Rate , Kidney Transplantation/trends , Medical Errors , Delayed Graft Function , Data Accuracy , Graft Rejection , Graft Survival
6.
Rev. méd. hered ; 30(1): 12-19, ene.-mar. 2019. graf, tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas), LIPECS | ID: biblio-1014340

ABSTRACT

Objetivos: Determinar la eficacia del Índice de Mannheim como predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con peritonitis secundaria. Material y métodos: Estudio observacional retrospectivo, tipo prueba diagnóstica. realizado con los datos de las historias clínicas. A través de un muestreo no probabilístico se analizó 294 pacientes: 40 fallecidos y 254 sobrevivientes postoperados de peritonitis secundaria del Servicio de Cirugía General del Hospital "Daniel Alcides Carrión" de Huancayo entre los años 2015 y 2017; se calculó dicho tamaño muestral con el uso del estadístico EPIDAT 4.1 para pruebas diagnósticas. Se determinó: Sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, razón de verosimilitud positivo, razón de verosimilitud negativa, curva ROC y el área bajo la curva ROC (ABC). Resultados: El Índice de Mannheim con el punto de corte utilizado según el trabajo original de e"26 mostró una sensibilidad de 0,85, especificidad 0,972, valor predictivo positivo de 0,829, valor predictivo negativo 0,976. El punto de corte optimo con una sensibilidad de 0,975 se obtuvo en el punto de corte e"21. El área bajo la curva ROC fue 0,976. Conclusiones: El Índice de Mannheim demostró ser un buen predictor de mortalidad, estableciéndose que el mejor punto de corte es e"21 para aumentar la sensibilidad al 97,5% a fin de evitar la pérdida de casos detectados por el Índice. (AU)


Objectives: To determine the efficacy of the Manheim´s index in predicting mortality in patients with secondary peritonitis. Methods: A retrospective diagnostic like study was carried-out with data extracted from clinical charts. A non-probabilistic sampling of 294 patients of whom 40 had died and 254 were discharged alive after being surgically intervened from secondary peritonitis in the General Surgery service at Hospital Daniel Alcides Carrion in Huancayo was calculated using EPIDAT 4.1. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and ROC curves and area under the ROC were calculated. Results: A Manheim´s index of e"26 showed a sensitivity of 0.85, specificity of 0.972, positive predictive value of 0.829 and negative predictive value of 0.976. The optimal threshold was e"21 attaining a sensitivity of 0.975. The area under the ROC curve was 0.976. Conclusions: Manheim´s index is a good predictor of mortality among patients with secondary peritonitis, the optimal threshold was e"21. (AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Peritonitis , ROC Curve , Forecasting , Cross-Sectional Studies , Retrospective Studies
7.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-774528

ABSTRACT

Pancreatic cancer is the most common digestive tract tumor with an increasing incidence in recent years. The poor prognosis of pancreatic cancer is mainly because of the inability of detecting tumor at an early stage,its high potential for early dissemination,and its relatively poor sensitivity to chemotherapy. Most patients have lost the opportunity for surgery when they are diagnosed,which resulted in an urgent need for the development of more effective and safe therapies for pancreatic cancer. However,the current clinical cancer chemotherapy based on gemcitabine leads to poor prognosis in pancreatic patients. With the continuous research on the biological and cellular signaling pathways of pancreatic cancer,there have emerged a great many of novel agents,including new chemotherapeutic,targetable and immune-modulatory drugs,and some drugs have achieved encouraging results. Furthermore,as an alternative and supplementary method,traditional Chinese medicine has shown good application prospects in the field of pancreatic cancer treatment. This article reviews the current status of drug therapy for pancreatic cancer,summarizes the strength and weakness of existing therapeutic drugs in the application process,gives prospects of possible breakthroughs for the pharmacotherapy in the future,and provides certain new ideas and lessons for subsequent drug development.


Subject(s)
Forecasting , Humans , Medicine, Chinese Traditional , Pancreatic Neoplasms , Drug Therapy
8.
Article in English | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-739792

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A number of studies have reported future prevalence estimates for diabetes mellitus (DM), but these studies have been limited for the Korean population. The present study aimed to construct a forecasting model that includes risk factors for type 2 DM using individual- and national-level data for Korean adults to produce prevalence estimates for the year 2030. METHODS: Time series data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and national statistics from 2005 to 2013 were used. The study subjects were 13,908 male and 18,697 female adults aged 30 years or older who were free of liver cirrhosis. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to select significant factors associated with DM prevalence. RESULTS: The results showed that survey year, age, sex, marital, educational, or occupational status, the presence of obesity or hypertension, smoking status, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, psychological distress or depression, and fertility rate significantly contributed to the 8-year trend in DM prevalence (P < 0.05). Based on sex-specific forecasting models that included the above factors, DM prevalence for the year 2030 was predicted to be 29.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6% to 30.8%) in men and 19.7% (95% CI, 18.2% to 21.2%) in women. CONCLUSION: The present study projected a two-fold increase in the prevalence of DM in 2030 compared with that for the years 2013 and 2014 in Korean adults. Modifiable factors contributing to this increase in DM prevalence, such as obesity, smoking, and psychological factors, may require attention in order to reduce national and individual costs associated with DM.


Subject(s)
Adult , Alcohol Drinking , Birth Rate , Depression , Diabetes Mellitus , Employment , Female , Forecasting , Humans , Hypertension , Korea , Liver Cirrhosis , Logistic Models , Male , Nutrition Surveys , Obesity , Prevalence , Psychology , Risk Factors , Smoke , Smoking
9.
Rev. bras. cancerol ; 65(4)20191216.
Article in Portuguese | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-1049180

ABSTRACT

Introdução: A neoplasia de fígado e vias biliares intra-hepáticas é a sétima mais incidente e representa a segunda maior causa de morte por câncer no mundo. Sendo assim, é crucial compreender a epidemiologia dessa doença, no que diz respeito às tendências temporais da mortalidade e da carga que essa doença apresentará no futuro. Objetivo: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por câncer de fígado e vias biliares no Brasil e calcular as projeções de mortalidade até 2030. Método: Estudo ecológico baseado em óbitos por neoplasia maligna de fígado e vias biliares intra-hepáticas (C22) ocorridos no Brasil no período de 2001 a 2015 e registrados no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. As tendências de mortalidade foram analisadas pela regressão Joinpoint; para o cálculo das projeções, foi utilizado o programa Nordpred. Resultados: Para o sexo feminino, houve redução das taxas de mortalidade nas Regiões Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Norte no Brasil; para o sexo masculino, essas Regiões apresentaram tendências de aumento, porém não significativo. As taxas de mortalidade para o sexo feminino apresentarão reduções no futuro, com destaque para as taxas das Regiões Norte e Nordeste, com redução de cerca de 30% até 2030. Para o sexo masculino, haverá acréscimo de 12% nas taxas de mortalidade para a Região Sul. Conclusão: A mortalidade por câncer de fígado e vias biliares no Brasil apresenta tendência de redução para o sexo feminino e estabilidade para o sexo masculino, e essa característica será mantida nas próximas décadas.


Introduction: Intrahepatic liver and biliary tract neoplasm is the seventh most incident and represents the second leading cause of cancer death in the world. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the epidemiology of this disease in relation to the temporal trends of mortality and burden that this disease will present in the future. Objective: To analyze the trend in mortality by liver and biliary cancer in Brazil and to calculate mortality projections until 2030. Method: An ecological study based in deaths from malignant liver and bile duct cancer (C22) occurred in Brazil from 2001 to 2015 and recorded in the Mortality Information System. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, while for the calculation of projections, the Nordpred program was used. Results: For females, there was a reduction in mortality rates in the Midwest, Southeast and North regions in Brazil; for males, these regions showed increasing but no significant trends. Mortality rates for females will decrease in the future, with emphasis for the rates in the North and Northeast, with a reduction of about 30% by 2030. For males, there will be a 12% increase in mortality rates for the Southern Region. Conclusion: Mortality due to liver and biliary cancer in Brazil shows a tendency of reduction for females and stability for males, and this characteristic will be maintained in the coming decades.


Introducción: La neoplasia intrahepática del hígado y del tracto biliar es el séptimo cáncer más común y representa la segunda causa principal de muerte por cáncer en el mundo. Por lo tanto, es crucial comprender la epidemiología de esta enfermedad con respecto a las tendencias temporales de mortalidad y carga que esta enfermedad presentará en el futuro. Objetivo: Analizar la tendencia de la mortalidad por cáncer de hígado y biliar en Brasil y calcular las proyecciones de mortalidad para 2030. Método: Un estudio ecológico basado en las muertes por cáncer de hígado y conducto biliar (C22) en Brasil en el de 2001 a 2015 y registrado en el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad. Las tendencias de mortalidad se analizaron mediante regresión de Joinpoint, mientras que para el cálculo de las proyecciones se utilizó el programa Nordpred. Resultados: Para las mujeres, hubo una reducción en las tasas de mortalidad en las regiones del Medio Oeste, Sudeste y Norte no Brasil; para los hombres, estas regiones mostraron tendencias crecientes, pero no significativas. Las tasas de mortalidad para las mujeres disminuirán en el futuro, con énfasis en las tasas en el norte y el noreste, con una reducción de alrededor del 30% para 2030. Para los hombres, habrá un aumento del 12% en las tasas de mortalidad para las mujeres. Conclusión: La mortalidad por cáncer de hígado y biliar en Brasil muestra una tendencia a la reducción de las mujeres y la estabilidad de los hombres, y esta característica se mantendrá en las próximas décadas.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Infant, Newborn , Infant , Child, Preschool , Child , Adolescent , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Young Adult , Bile Duct Neoplasms/mortality , Liver Neoplasms/mortality , Brazil/epidemiology , Mortality/trends , Sex Distribution , Age Distribution , Ecological Studies , Forecasting
10.
South African Medical Journal ; 109(8), p.13-17, fig., tab., 2019
Article in English | AIM (Africa) | ID: afr-201114

ABSTRACT

South Africa has a high disease burden resulting from communicable and non-communicable diseases. Current therapeutic interventions rarely result in a cure and the associated lifelong treatment places a considerable strain on an overburdened health sector. Gene and cell therapies present novel alternatives to disease management, offering the promise of a single treatment and a lifelong cure. Although challenges remain, investment in the field has started to bear fruit, with a number of gene and cell therapeutics reaching the market in the past decade. To take full advantage of these developments, it is important that a proactive approach to nurturing appropriate human and material resources is adopted in the country.


Subject(s)
Genes , Tissues , Therapeutics , Appointments and Schedules , Forecasting , Africa
11.
South African Medical Journal ; 109(8), p.46-52., 2019
Article in English | AIM (Africa) | ID: afr-201120

ABSTRACT

The growing need for haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is reflected in the increasing number of transplants performed globally each year. HSCT provides life-changing and potentially curative therapy for a range of pathologies including haematological malignancies; other indications include certain congenital and acquired disorders of the haematopoietic system, autoimmune conditions and hereditary diseases. The primary goals of HSCT are either to replace haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPC) following myeloablative chemotherapy or to cure the original pathology with allogeneic HSPCs. Success depends on optimal outcomes at various stages of the procedure including mobilisation of marrow stem/progenitor cells for harvesting from the patient or donor, long-term and sustainable engraftment of these cells in the recipient, and prevention of graft-versus-host disease in the case of allogeneic HSCT. Challenges in South Africa include high cost, limited infrastructure and lack of appropriately trained staff, as well as limitations in securing suitable haematopoietic stem cell donors. This review aims to provide an overview of HSCT and some of the challenges that are faced in the South African context.


Subject(s)
Microscopy, Electron, Scanning Transmission , Cells , Transplantation , Terminology , Forecasting , Africa
12.
Article in English | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-763151

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: This study aimed to report on cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2019 to estimate Korea's current cancer burden. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2016 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2017 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. The Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly; we used only the data of the latest trend. RESULTS: A total of 221,347 new cancer cases and 82,344 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2019. The most common cancer sites thus far have been the lung, followed by the stomach, colon and rectum, breast, and liver. These five cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. For cancer associated mortality, the most common sites were lung, followed by the liver, colon and rectum, stomach, and pancreas. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of all cancer in Korea is estimated to decrease gradually. These up-todate estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.


Subject(s)
Breast , Colon , Forecasting , Incidence , Korea , Linear Models , Liver , Lung , Mortality , Pancreas , Rectum , Stomach
13.
Article in English | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-771649

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE@#Amongst the ASEAN countries, Malaysia has the highest road fatality risk (>15 fatalities per 100 000 population) with 50% of these fatalities involving motorcyclist. This contributes greatly to ward admissions and poses a significant burden to the general surgery services. From mild rib fractures to severe intra-abdominal exsanguinations, the spectrum of cases managed by surgeons resulting from motorcycle accidents is extensive. The objective of this study is to report the clinical characteristics and identify predictors of death in motorcycle traumatic injuries from a Malaysian trauma surgery centre.@*METHODS@#This is a prospective cross-sectional study of all injured motorcyclists and pillion riders that were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Aminah and treated by the trauma surgery team from May 2011 to February 2015. Only injured motorcyclists and pillion riders were included in this study. Patient demography and predictors leading to mortality were identified. Significant predictors on univariate analysis were further analysed with multivariate analysis.@*RESULTS@#We included 1653 patients with a mean age of (35 ± 16.17) years that were treated for traumatic injuries due to motorcycle accidents. The mortality rate was 8.6% (142) with equal amount of motorcycle riders (788) and pillion riders (865) that were injured. Amongst the injured were male predominant (1 537) and majority of ethnic groups were the Malays (897) and Chinese (350). Severity of injury was reflected with a mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) of 7.31 ± 1.29, New Injury Severity Score (NISS) of 19.84 ± 13.84 and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) of 0.91 ± 0.15. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that age≥35, lower GCS, head injuries, chest injuries, liver injuries, and small bowel injuries were significant predictors of motorcycle trauma related deaths with p < 0.05. Higher trauma severity represented by NISS, RTS and TRISS scores was also significant for death with p < 0.05.@*CONCLUSION@#Age, lower GCS, presence of head, chest, liver, small bowel injuries and higher severity on NISS, RTS and TRISS scores are predictive of death in patients involved with motorcycle accidents. This information is important for prognostic mortality risk prevention and counselling.


Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic , Mortality , Adult , Age Factors , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Forecasting , Humans , Malaysia , Epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Motorcycles , Trauma Severity Indices , Wounds and Injuries , Epidemiology , Young Adult
14.
Article in Korean | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wprim-766749

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Burden of acute stroke management is increasing according to aging population and advances in the therapeutic time window. However, reduction of resident numbers by the national policy in addition to the underlying low medical charge and reward gradually leaded to a lower rate of application to neurology department. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide survey from May 29, 2017 through July 11, 2017 to evaluate the real-world working conditions and issues of acute stroke management by stroke neurologists in Korea. Of 100 candidates of stroke professors/specialists, a total of 81 physicians participated the survey comprising 40 questionnaires. RESULTS: Stroke care physicians were suffering from heavy work load of inpatient care, outpatient clinic due to shortage of manpower for caring acute stroke. There were only three hospitals (3.7%) where neurologists independently take lead an endovascular therapy. About 43% of the participants were involving in primary duty for acute stroke management stroke, majority of whom (65.7%) were on by themselves. Participants pointed out that the biggest drawbacks were manpower shortage due to lack of residents, and numerous frequencies of primary duty. Approximately 80% of the participants forecasted a dismal future for stroke field. CONCLUSIONS: With the growing incidence of stroke, there is an emerging need for increasing number of neurologists due to contemporary grave shortage of stroke neurologists. It is necessary to investigate the effective demand forecasting for stroke neurologists for the strategy to improve an unmet quality of stroke care with the awareness and help of government.


Subject(s)
Aging , Ambulatory Care , Brain Infarction , Forecasting , Humans , Incidence , Inpatients , Korea , Neurology , Reward , Stroke
15.
Rev. ecuat. pediatr ; 19(2): 29-33, diciembre 2018.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-996655

ABSTRACT

Objetivo: Este artículo compara 4 escalas de predicción de mortalidad y gravedad de la enfermedad (CRIB, CRIB II, SNAPPE, SNAPPE II) en recién nacidos prematuros y a términos, ingresados a las unidades de cuidaos intensivos neonatales (UCIN) para determinar cuál de ellas, tiene mayor discriminación pronostica. Métodos: es un estudio transversal, observacional, multicéntrico para comparar varias escalas de predicción de mortalidad y de la enfermedad. Se recolectaron datos de 227 recién nacidos ingresados a las UCIN de 4 hospitales desde julio a diciembre del 2018. Evaluamos las escalas CRIB, CRIB II, SNAPII y SNAP-PE score en recién nacidos prematuros y a término. El área bajo la curva (ROC) fue usada para evaluar y comparar los resultados de predicción de mortalidad y morbilidad. Resultados: Un total of 227 recién nacidos fueron evaluados (media CRIB: 7,81±3,52 media CRIB-II: 11,96±3,91; media SNAP-II: 34,99±16,83, SNAPPE II: 14,61±13,30). Se evidenció una mayor discriminación para las escalas CRIB II y CRIB en relación con SNAP-II y SNAPP II (AUC 0.94 y 0.93 vs 0.86 y 0,77). Además de cada puntuación, varias variables influyeron significativamente en la supervivencia en los modelos de regresión logística. Conclusiones: Todas las escalas de predicción de mortalidad y de gravedad de la enfermedad sirven para utilizarse en las UCIN estudiadas, siendo la escala CRIB II la de mejor rendimiento para aplicarse en nuestro medio.


Objective: This article compares 4 scales of prediction of mortality and disease severity (CRIB, CRIB II, SNAPPE, SNAPPE II) in preterm and term new borns admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICU) to determine which of them has greater forecast discrimination. Methods: it is a cross-sectional, observational, multicenter study that compares several mortality and disease prediction scales. Data were collected from 227 newborns admitted to the NICU of 4 hospitals from July to December 2018. We evaluated the CRIB, CRIB II, SNAPII and SNAP-PE score scales in preterm and full term infants. The area under the curve (ROC) was used to evaluate and compare the prediction results of mortality and morbidity. Results: A total of 227 newborns were evaluated (mean CRIB: 7.81 ± 3.52 mean CRIB-II: 11.96 ± 3.91, average SNAP-II: 34.99 ± 16.83, SNAPPE II: 14.61 ± 13.30). There was evidence of greater discrimination for the CRIB II and CRIB scales in relation to SNAP-II and SNAPP II (AUC 0.94 and 0.93 vs 0.86 and 0.77). In addition to each score, several variables significantly influenced survival in the logistic regression models. Conclusions: All the prediction scales of mortality and severity of the disease serve to be used in the studied NICUs, being the CRIB II scale the best performance to apply in our environment.


Subject(s)
Humans , Infant, Newborn , Infant, Premature , Infant Mortality , Forecasting , Infant, Newborn
16.
Medisan ; 22(8)set.-oct. 2018. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-976156

ABSTRACT

Se realizó un estudio de casos y testigos en pacientes con migraña, diagnosticados mediante un estudio transversal efectuado en el municipio Bayamo de la provincia Granma, entre enero de 2007 y diciembre de 2009, con el objetivo de construir y validar un índice predictivo del riesgo de desarrollar la discapacidad moderada a grave por migraña. La construcción del índice incluyó la selección de los factores de riesgo y el cálculo de sus ponderaciones. Se obtuvo un índice cuantitativo que fue subdividido en 4 categorías de riesgo, mientras que la validez fue satisfactoria en todos los aspectos evaluados. Dicho índice demostró tener buena capacidad discriminativa (área bajo la curva ROC 0,937) y permitió diagnosticar correctamente a 89,74 por ciento de los pacientes, con sensibilidad de 86,73 por ciento y especificidad de 91,12 por ciento. El índice de Kappa interobservador fue de 0,950 (p=0,000), el global de 0,965 (p=0,000) y el coeficiente Alfa de Cronbach, de 0,627.


A cases and control study was carried out in patients with migraine, diagnosed by means of a cross-sectional study in Bayamo municipality, Granma province, between January, 2007 to December, 2009, with the objective of creating and validating a predictive index for the risk of developing moderate to severe disability due to migraine. The creation of the index included the selection of risk factors and the calculation of its values. A quantitative index was obtained which was subdivided in 4 categories of risk, while the validity was satisfactory in all the evaluated aspects. This index demonstrated to have good discriminative capacity (area under the curve ROC 0.937) and it allowed to diagnose correctly 89.74 percent of the patients, with sensibility of 86.74 percent and specificity of 91.12 percent. The Kappa index between observers was 0.950 (p=0.000), the global index was 0.965 (p=0.000) and the coefficient Alpha of Cronbach, 0.627.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Migraine with Aura/etiology , Forecasting , Migraine Disorders/prevention & control , Risk Factors , Intellectual Disability
17.
Rev. ADM ; 75(5): 283-289, sept.-oct. 2018. ilus, tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-980177

ABSTRACT

Los factores ambientales y evolutivos, los cambios en los hábitos dietéticos, entre otros, pueden desencadenar un papel etiológico en la aparición de anomalías dentales llevando a la especie humana a una disminución en la función masticatoria que trae como consecuencia una reducción en el tamaño de los maxilares originando la falta de espacio para la correcta posición de los dientes en el arco dental, lo que provoca un aumento en la incidencia de casos de segundos y terceros molares retenidos con su consecuente patología multisintomática ocasionando de esta manera un problema de salud pública. Diversos autores han utilizado las imágenes radiográficas para realizar análisis específicamente del tercer molar, basándose en una proyección lateral y panorámica para, mediante marcas y referencias, establecer un diagnóstico y determinar el riesgo y la necesidad de su extracción. La imagenología presenta una nueva herramienta que es la tomografía Cone Beam que nos permite adaptar los conocimientos clásicos del análisis del tercer molar a una imagen en tres dimensiones, aportando el factor profundidad (AU)


Environmental factors, evolutionary changes in dietary habits, among others can trigger an etiological role in the appearance of dental anomalies. Taking the human species to a decrease in masticatory function resulting in a reduction in the size of the jaws, resulting in a lack of space for the correct position of the teeth in the dental arch. Causing an increase in the incidence of second and third molars retained. Its eruption restriction consequent multisymptomatic pathology causing a public health problem in this way. Several authors have used the radiographic images to perform analyzes of the third molar. Based on a lateral and a panoramic radiographic projection, to establish a diagnosis and determine the risk and the need to extract it. Imaging diagnostic presents a new tool that is Cone Beam tomography that allows us to adapt the classical knowledge of the third molar analysis to an image in three dimensions, providing the depth factor (AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Tooth Eruption , Tooth Germ/surgery , Forecasting , Molar, Third , Tooth, Deciduous , Tooth, Impacted , Radiography, Panoramic , Cephalometry , Statistical Analysis , Dentition, Permanent , Cone-Beam Computed Tomography
18.
Oncol. (Guayaquil) ; 28(1): 22-33, 30 de Abril 2018.
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-1000029

ABSTRACT

Introducción: El cáncer de ovario epitelial aunque tiene baja prevalencia está considerado entre las malignidades ginecológicas más letales por su alta mortalidad. El interés en la detección temprana del cáncer de ovario como mecanismo para lograr la reducción de la mortalidad ha crecido con el descubrimiento de biomarcadores tumorales séricos asociados a tumores malignos. El presente estudio plantea determinar la eficacia del uso del biomarcador HE4 para la detección precoz de cáncer epitelial de ovario en estadios tempranos. Métodos: Se evaluaron pacientes con masas pélvicas entre abril de 2015 y marzo de 2016. Valores de sensibilidad, especificidad, predictivo positivo y negativo, razón de probabilidad positiva y negativa, y pruebas estadísticas fueron calculados para determinar la relación entre los estados menopáusicos, y los grupos de acuerdo con el resultado histológico (benigno, maligno y control) de HE4, CA125 y ROMA. Resultados: Ingresaron al estudio 53 pacientes. La proteína epididimal humana 4 - HE4 presentó un valor medio diferenciable que permite distinguir masas pélvicas malignas (HE4:7,19 (maligno) vs. 5,71 (benigno)), igualmente la combinación HE4 + ROMA presentan mayor sensibilidad y especificidad (S: 100 %; E: 94.29 %) que las combinaciones CA125 + HE4 y CA125 + ROMA (S: 80 % y 88.89 %; E: 75.76 % y 77.14 %). Conclusión: Los resultados sugieren que HE4 serviría como un biomarcador eficiente para la diferenciación de masas pélvicas en estadios tempranos y si se adiciona el estatus menopaúsico, e índice ROMA afianzaría los resultados, permitiendo la diferenciación del cáncer de ovario epitelial en estadios tempranos en el país.


Introduction: Although epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) has a low prevalence, it is considered among the most lethal gynecological malignancies due to its high mortality. The interest in the early detection of ovarian cancer as a mechanism to achieve the reduction of mortality has grown with the discovery of serum tumor biomarkers associated with malignant tumors. The present study proposes to determine the efficacy of the use of the HE4 biomarker for the early detection of ovarian epithelial cancer in early stages. Methods: We evaluated 53 patients with pelvic masses between April 2015 and March 2016. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratio, and statistical tests were calculated to determine the relationship between menopausal states, and groups according to the histological result (benign, malignant and control) of HE4, CA125 and ROMA. Results: The human epididymal protein 4 - HE4 presented a differentiable mean value that allows to distinguish malignant pelvic masses (HE4: 7.19 (malignant) vs. 5.71 (benign)), likewise the combination HE4 + ROMA present greater sensitivity and specificity (S: 100%; E: 94.29 %) than combinations CA125 + HE4 and CA125 + ROMA (S: 80% and 88.89 %; E: 75.76 % and 77.14 %). Conclusion: The results suggest that HE4 would serve as an efficient biomarker for the differentiation of pelvic masses in early stages and if menopausal status is added, and ROMA index would strengthen the results, allowing the differentiation of epithelial ovarian cancer in early stages in the country.


Subject(s)
Humans , Female , Ovarian Neoplasms , Carcinoembryonic Antigen , Premenopause , Postmenopause , Forecasting , Neoplasms
19.
Rev. cuba. pediatr ; 90(1): 27-36, ene.-mar. 2018. graf, tab
Article in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-901464

ABSTRACT

Introducción: los modelos predictivos constituyen herramienta importante en cuidados intensivos. La escala SEGRAV 23 ha mostrado su validez para establecer pronóstico en pacientes pediátricos. Objetivo: determinar intervenciones de mayor riesgo del SEGRAV 23. Métodos: estudio observacional, analítico, de cohorte retrospectivo, en el cual se aplicó el modelo SEGRAV 23 en pacientes con neumonía adquirida en la comunidad, en la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos Pediátricos del Hospital Militar Central Dr. Luis Díaz Soto , durante cinco años (2007-2008, 2012-2014). La muestra fue de 356 pacientes. Se calculó chi cuadrado de ajuste, se comprobó independencia a través de chi cuadrado de Pearson y prueba exacta de Fisher, con nivel de significación estadística p< 0,05. Se descartaron variables no puntuables y las de menor influencia en categoría fallecidos (p> 0,05). Se calculó odds ratio (OR) con intervalo de confianza (IC) de 95 por ciento para determinar riesgo. Resultados: la mortalidad fue 2,53 por ciento (356 ingresos/9 fallecidos), los pacientes no graves predominaron (222/62,4 por ciento; p< 0,05). Entre los muy graves (12/3,4 por ciento) y críticos (9/2,5 por ciento) estuvieron todos los fallecidos. Una vía venosa central (71/19,9 por ciento y tratamiento de trastornos hidroelectrolíticos severos (63/17,7 por ciento) fueron más frecuentes. El doppler transcraneal, la nutrición parenteral total y el tratamiento de la coagulación intravascular diseminada, no puntuaron. Realización de tomografía, una vía venosa central, intervención quirúrgica y pleurotomía mostraron relación poco significativa con mortalidad (p> 0,05). La realización de reanimación cardiopulmonar (OR= 1 380; IC 95 por ciento [113,198-16 823,63]) y uso de FiO2≥ de 60 por ciento (OR= 454,67; IC 95 por ciento [48,89-4 228,57]) presentaron mayor riesgo. Conclusiones: de las 23 intervenciones diagnósticas y terapéuticas del SEGRAV 23, se determinaron 15 asociadas a mayor riesgo de mortalidad(AU)


Introduction: predictive models are an important tool in intensive care. The SEGRAV 23 scale has proven to be useful to establish a prognosis in pediatric patients. Objective: determine SEGRAV 23 higher risk interventions. Methods: an observational analytical retrospective cohort study based on application of the SEGRAV 23 model was conducted with community-acquired pneumonia patients at the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit of Dr. Luis Díaz Soto Central Military Hospital during five years (2007-2008, 2012-2014). The sample consisted of 356 patients. Adjustment chi square was estimated, and independence verified by Pearson's chi-squared test and Fisher's exact test, with a statistical significance level of p< 0.05. Nonpoint variables and those with a lesser influence on the deceased category (p> 0.05) were discarded. Odds ratio (OR) was estimated with a confidence interval (CI) of 95 percent to determine risk. Results: mortality was 2.53 percent (356 admissions/9 deaths), with a predominance of non-critical patients (222/62.4 percent; p< 0.05). All the deaths were among very critical (12/3.4 percent) and critical (9/2.5 percent) patients. The most frequent procedures were one central venous route (71/19.9 percent) and treatment for severe hydroelectrolitic disorders (63/17.7 percent). Transcranial Doppler, total parenteral nutrition, and the treatment for disseminated intravascular coagulation did not score. Tomography, one central venous route, surgery and pleurotomy exhibited a not very significant relationship to mortality (p> 0.05). Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (OR= 1 380; CI 95 percent [113.198-16 823.63]) and the use of FiO2≥ 60 percent (OR= 454.67; IC 95 percent [48.89-4 228.57]) displayed higher risk. Conclusions: of the 23 SEGRAV 23 diagnostic and therapeutic interventions, 15 were found to be associated with a higher risk of mortality(AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Infant , Child, Preschool , Child , Intensive Care Units, Pediatric/trends , Severity of Illness Index , Forecasting/methods , Pneumonia/complications
20.
Rev. paul. pediatr ; 36(1): 52-58, jan.-mar. 2018. tab, graf
Article in Portuguese | LILACS (Americas) | ID: biblio-902897

ABSTRACT

RESUMO Objetivo: Identificar um indicador de adiposidade abdominal de baixo custo e com maior acurácia para predizer o excesso de peso em crianças de quatro a sete anos idade. Métodos: Estudo transversal com amostra de 257 crianças de 4 a 7 anos. Os indicadores de adiposidade abdominal avaliados foram: perímetro da cintura (PC), relação cintura-estatura (RCE) e percentual de gordura central (avaliado pela técnica dual energy X-ray absorptiometry - DEXA). O excesso de peso foi classificado pelo índice de massa corporal por idade (IMC/I). Nas análises, estimou-se a razão de prevalência (RP) pela regressão de Poisson com variância robusta e utilizou-se a curva (receiver operating characteristics ­- ROC), considerando como significância estatística p<0,05. Resultados: A prevalência de excesso de peso foi de 24,9%, e observou-se maior mediana dos indicadores de adiposidade abdominal no grupo de crianças com excesso de peso. As crianças com valores aumentados de PC (RP=4,1; IC95% 2,86-5,86), RCE (RP=5,76; IC95% 4,14-8,02) e percentual de gordura central (RP=2,48; IC95% 1,65-3,73) apresentaram maior prevalência de excesso de peso. Verificou-se, na análise de curva ROC, que o índice RCE apresentou maior área sob a curva, comparado ao PC e ao percentual de gordura central estimada pelo DEXA, na predição do excesso de peso. Conclusões: Diante dos resultados, sugere-se a utilização da RCE para triagem de crianças com excesso de peso.


ABSTRACT Objective: To identify a low-cost abdominal adiposity index that has a higher accuracy in predicting excess weight in children aged four to seven years old. Methods: A cross-sectional study with a sample of 257 children aged 4 to 7 years old. Indicators of abdominal adiposity assessed were: waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHR) and central fat percentage (measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry - DEXA). Overweight children were classified using body mass index by age (BMI/age). In the analysis, the prevalence ratio (PR) using Poisson regression with a robust variance was estimated, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was built, with a statistical significance of p<0.05. Results: The prevalence of overweight children was 24.9% and a higher median of all abdominal adiposity indicators was observed in the overweight group. Children with increased values of WC (PR=4.1; 95%CI 2.86-5.86), WHR (PR=5.76; 95%CI 4.14-8.02) and a central fat percentage (PR=2.48; 95%CI 1.65-3.73) had a higher prevalence of being overweight. Using the ROC curve analysis, the WHR index showed a higher area under the curve, when compared to the WC and to the central fat percentage estimated by DEXA for predicting the classification of being overweight. Conclusions: Given the results, WHR is suggested for the screening of overweight children.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Child, Preschool , Child , Obesity, Abdominal/diagnosis , Pediatric Obesity/diagnosis , Waist-Height Ratio , Prevalence , Cross-Sectional Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Obesity, Abdominal/epidemiology , Pediatric Obesity/epidemiology , Forecasting
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL