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ABSTRACT Objective. To summarize the results of research conducted in Costa Rica in which mathematical and statistical methods were implemented to study the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases. Methods. Three articles with mathematical and statistical analysis on vector-borne diseases in Costa Rica were selected and reviewed. These papers show the value and relevance of using different quantitative methods to understand disease dynamics and support decision-making. Results. The results of these investigations: 1) show the impact on dengue case reports when a second pathogen emerges, such as chikungunya; 2) recover key parameters in Zika dynamics using Bayesian inference; and 3) show the use of machine learning algorithms and climatic variables to forecast the dengue relative risk in five different locations. Conclusions. Mathematical and statistical modeling enables the description of mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics, providing quantitative information to support prevention/control methods and resource allocation planning.
RESUMEN Objetivo. Resumir los resultados de las investigaciones realizadas en Costa Rica en las que se aplicaron métodos matemáticos y estadísticos para estudiar la dinámica de transmisión de las enfermedades transmitidas por mosquitos. Métodos. Se seleccionaron y analizaron tres artículos con análisis matemáticos y estadísticos sobre enfermedades transmitidas por vectores en Costa Rica. En estos artículos se muestra el valor y la pertinencia de emplear diferentes métodos cuantitativos para comprender la dinámica de la enfermedad y brindar apoyo a la toma de decisiones. Resultados. Los resultados de estas investigaciones: 1) muestran la repercusión en los informes de casos de dengue cuando surge un segundo agente patógeno, como el chikunguña; 2) recuperan parámetros clave en la dinámica del Zika mediante la inferencia bayesiana; y 3) muestran el uso de los algoritmos de aprendizaje automático y las variables climáticas para pronosticar el riesgo relativo de dengue en cinco lugares diferentes. Conclusiones. Los modelos matemáticos y estadísticos permiten describir la dinámica de transmisión de las enfermedades transmitidas por mosquitos, mediante la provisión de información cuantitativa para brindar apoyo a los métodos de prevención y control y a la planificación de la asignación de recursos.
RESUMO Objetivo. Resumir os resultados de estudos realizados na Costa Rica em que foram aplicados métodos matemáticos e estatísticos para estudar a dinâmica de transmissão de doenças transmitidas por mosquitos. Métodos. Foram selecionados e revisados três artigos com análises matemáticas e estatísticas sobre doenças transmitidas por vetores na Costa Rica. Esses artigos mostram o valor e a pertinência do uso de diferentes métodos quantitativos para compreender a dinâmica das doenças e apoiar a tomada de decisões. Resultados. Os resultados dessas investigações: 1) mostram o impacto nas notificações de casos de dengue quando surge um segundo patógeno, como o chikungunya; 2) recuperam parâmetros-chave na dinâmica do zika, usando a inferência bayesiana; e 3) mostram o uso de algoritmos de aprendizagem por máquina e variáveis climáticas para prever o risco relativo da dengue em cinco locais diferentes. Conclusões. A modelagem matemática e estatística permite a descrição da dinâmica de transmissão de doenças transmitidas por mosquitos ao oferecer informações quantitativas para apoiar métodos de prevenção e/ou controle e o planejamento da alocação de recursos.
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Objective @#To investigate the clinicopathological features and survival rate of oral squamous cell carcinoma patients in China.@*Methods@#The clinicopathological characteristics, stage, treatment modality, and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) rate of 1 915 OCSCC patients who received initial treatment at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from 1990 to 2013 were collected and analyzed. The clinicopathological characteristics, stage, treatment modality, and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) rate of OCSCC patients treated during the successive decades of 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2013 were analyzed retrospectively to show the trends over time.@*Results @#The average age of all OCSCC patients who received initial treatment at this cancer center from 1990 to 2013 was 54.8 years (SD, 12.6 years). The sex ratio was approximately 2:1. The oral tongue was the site most prone for OCSCC, accounting for 63.6% of all cases. The proportions of early-stage (Ⅰ-Ⅱ) and advanced-stage (Ⅲ-Ⅳ) cases were approximate. Regarding the treatment modality, surgery-based treatment accounted for 80.4%. Survival analysis showed that the 5-year DSS rate of all cases was 57%. Survival decreased with age. The survival of females, nonsmokers, and nondrinkers was higher than that of males, smokers, and drinkers. The 5-year DSS rates of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the lips, oral tongue, and other sites of the oral cavity were 81%, 63%, and 42%, respectively. The 5-year DSS rates of patients who received surgery-based treatment and nonsurgical treatment were 66% and 19%, respectively. The analysis of trends over time showed that in the period of 1990-1999 and 2010-2013, the age and sex ratio were relatively stable. The proportion of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the lips and oral tongue gradually decreased, while the proportion of those with squamous cell carcinoma of the other sites of the oral cavity gradually increased. The proportion of surgery-based treatment increased from 77.7% to 91.3%. The 5-year DSS rate gradually increased from 53% in 1990-1999 to 64% in 2010-2013. The 5-year DSS rate of female patients increased significantly from 55% to 78%. However, the 5-year DSS rate of male patients was relatively stable. The 5-year DSS rate of patients who received surgery-based treatment gradually increased from 62% to 69%. @*Conclusion@#The 5-year DSS rate has steadily improved for OCSCC patients at this cancer center from 1990-2013, especially in female patients. The 5-year DSS rate of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue has reached the rate in developed countries worldwide. The proportion and survival rate of patients who received surgery-based treatment gradually increased. The survival rate of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the other sites of the oral cavity was significantly lower than that of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the lips and oral tongue, suggesting that more effort should be put into the treatment of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the other sites of the oral cavity to improve the survival rate in the future.