Validation of Scoring System for Survival Prediction in Terminal Cancer Patients in Korea

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of survival in terminal cancer patients is important for planning effective palliative care. But, the prediction of survival most often relies on the physicians' prediction. Recently, simple prognostic scores such as Palliative Prognostic Index and Palliative Prognostic Score have been developed to estimate duration of survival. The aim of this study was to validate these prognostic scores and physicians' prediction for terminally ill cancer patients in Korea to determine its value in clinical practice. METHODS: The subjects of this study were 40 terminal cancer inpatients of one hospital who died between March to May 2005. All patients' Palliative Prognostic Index, Palliative Prognostic Score, and physicians' prediction were recorded on admission by a physician. RESULTS: When a Palliative Prognostic Index of more than 6 was adopted as a cut-off point 3 weeks' survival was predicted with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 60%. When the three groups were grouped by Palliative Prognostic Scores (group A: 11), the 30 day survival probability were 60% for group A, 16.7% for group B, and 4.3% for group C, respectively. Physicians' prediction showed moderate correlation (correlation coefficient=0.604) with actual survival and had a tendency to overestimate survival. CONCLUSION: Palliative Prognostic Index was proved to be a reliable survival prediction tool in Korea. Palliative Prognostic Score had a tendency to overestimate survival as compared with other studies. Physicians' prediction had a correlation with actual survival, and it was presumed to be more accurate when combined with other prognostic score.

Primary Care Physicians' Attitudes to Community-Based Medical Education and the Wave Model as a New Teaching Method in Ambulatory Care Settings / 한국의학교육

PURPOSE: In order to expand and improve community-based medical education (CBME), we attempted to delineate the characters of the primary care physicians interested in medical education and their opinions on the new medical teaching method for ambulatory care settings, Wave model. METHODS: Through mailed questionnaires, we asked the Seoul members of the family physician association and the internal medicine physician association about their interest and opinions of CBME and the Wave model. RESULTS: We received 186 replies from the total 1088 questionnaires (17.1%) sent out. Many of the primary care physicians (141/186; 75.8%) had no experience with CBME. However, 127 (68.7%) were interested in CBME and 121 (65.4%) answered that they were interested in teaching students in their clinic. There were 128 (69.2%) affirmative responses to the Wave model, which was much higher than that to the observation-centered method, 53 (30.3%) (p < 0.0001). Primary care physicians who have affirmative attitudes to adopting the Wave model would select this model as their CBME program (p < 0.0001). Primary care physicians willing to teach students tend to be males (p=0.0085) and younger in age (p=0.0003), have examination rooms for student-patient contact (p < 0.0001), and possess positive attitude to adopting the Wave model (p= 0.0018). CONCLUSION: There are many primary care physicians eager to participate in CBME. They view the Wave model as an effective teaching method. Factors associated with the desire to work as a preceptor include being male and younger in age. having examination rooms for student-patient contact, and possessing a positive attitude to adopting the Wave model.