A retrospective study of endoscopic ultrasonography for predicting progression of esophageal varices in patients with hepatitis B virus-related hepatocirrhosis / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To assess the clinical value of endoscopic ultrasonography ( EUS ) for predicting esophageal varices ( EV ) progression in patients with hepatitis B virus ( HBV )-related hepatocirrhosis. Methods A retrospective cohort study was performed on 299 HBV-related hepatocirrhosis patients with light EV in Tianjin Second People′s Hospital admitted from September 2014 to September 2015. The diameter and number of peri-esophageal collateral veins ( ECV ) and para-ECV were measured and described by EUS. The first EUS examination time was the starting point, and the follow-up of 24 months or EV progression was the end. Risk factors of EV progression were evaluated by multivariate Cox regression model, and the predictive value of EUS for EV progression was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic ( ROC) curve. Results The cumulative incidence of EV progression was 2. 3％ ( 7/299 ) , 14. 8％( 44/297) , 33. 7％ ( 96/285) and 40. 0％ ( 120/273) at 6 months, 12 months, 18 months and 24 months of follow-up, respectively. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the diameter of peri-ECV ( P=0. 0112, HR=1. 3232, 95％CI: 1. 0656-1. 6429 ) , the number of peri-ECV ( P=0. 0001, HR=1. 3666, 95％CI:1. 1634-1. 6052) and para-ECV diameter ( P=0. 0002, HR=1. 3641, 95％CI:1. 1558-1. 6100) were risk factors for EV progression. The use of nucleoside analogues treating HBV (P=0. 0020, HR=0. 4969, 95％CI: 0. 3186-0. 7751) and non-selective β-blockers descending portal venous pressure ( P=0. 0765, HR=0. 5732, 95％CI:0. 3097-1. 0611) were the protective factors for EV progression. The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the diameter of peri-ECV[ P<0. 001, area under the curve (AUC)= 0. 850, 95％CI: 0. 804-0. 895], the number of peri-ECV (P<0. 001, AUC=0. 831, 95％CI: 0. 784-0. 878), the diameter of para-ECV (P<0. 001, AUC=0. 924, 95％CI: 0. 895-0. 954) , and the number of para-ECV ( P<0. 001, AUC=0. 761, 95％CI: 0. 704-0. 817 ) had higher predictive value for EV progression;and the optimum cut-off values of each index were 1. 85 mm, 3. 5, 3. 35 mm, and 4. 5, respectively. The accuracies of prediction for EV progression were 76. 60％, 75. 19％, 84. 48％ and 70. 29％, respectively. Conclusion EUS can be used to predict EV progression in HBV-related hepatocirrhosis patients. Peri-ECV diameter>1. 85 mm, number>3. 5, and para-ECV diameter>3. 35 mm, number>4. 5 suggest a high risk of EV progression. For patients with HBV-related hepatocirrhosis complicated with mild EV, nucleoside analogues to anti-HBV and non-selective β-blockers to reduce portal hypertension can prevent EV progression.

A risk assessment model for esophageal varices occurrence based on endoscopic ultrasonography / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To identify the independent risk factors of esophageal varices ( EV) in cirrhosis by endoscopic ultrasonography ( EUS) , and further to establish a risk assessment model for predicting EV occurrence and evaluate the clinical predictive value of the model. Methods A retrospective cohort study was used in this study. Data of patients with cirrhosis without varicosity, who were hospitalized in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from September 2014 to March 2017 were collected. The location, diameter, and number of esophageal collateral circulation were measured by EUS. The non-selective beta blocker ( NSBB) medication history and antiviral therapy were recorded. The time of the first EUS examination was taken as the starting point and the follow-up period was set up as 18 months. The end point was the occurrence of EV or the end of follow-up. The independent risk factors of EV occurrence were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the risk assessment model of EV occurrence was constructed. The predictive value of evaluation model for disease was studied by ROC analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was used to test the fitting efficiency of the evaluation model. Results A total of 638 subjects were recruited initially, 13 of them were lost in the course of the study. Finally, 625 cases were included in the study. Among them, 369 cases did not develop EV ( the non-progress group) and 256 cases developed EV (the progress group). (1) Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 independent risk factors were selected into the risk assessment model of EV occurrence, and were assigned corresponding scores:no NSBB (3 points), no antiviral treatment (2 points), Child-Pugh stage B (1 point), the diameter of peri-ECV>2 mm ( 1 point) , the number of peri-ECV≥5 ( 3 points) , the diameter of para-ECV≥5 mm ( 4 points) , and the number of para-ECV≥5 ( 4 points) . ( 2) In the risk assessment model, the risk factor scores ranged from 1 to 4 with a total score of 0-18. The predicted incidence of EV increased from 0. 003 to 1. 000 with the increase of the score. ( 3) In the risk assessment model, the total risk score≤2 was assigned into low-risk group, 3-5 into medium-risk group, and ≥6 into high-risk group. The actual EV incidence of each risk stratification was 2. 78％ in the low-risk group, 36. 36％ in the medium-risk group and 93. 91％ in the high-risk group, respectively. (4) The ROC analysis showed that area under curve (AUC) was 0. 947 (P<0. 05), suggesting that the risk assessment model had a good effect on predicting disease progression. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that P was 0. 450, suggesting that the model fitted well. Conclusion The risk assessment model based on EUS can accurately predict the occurrence of EV, and is simple and easy to use. The model can provide scientific basis for the prevention and rational treatment of EV in liver cirrhosis.

A risk assessment model for esophageal varices occurrence based on endoscopic ultrasonography / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective@#To identify the independent risk factors of esophageal varices (EV) in cirrhosis by endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), and further to establish a risk assessment model for predicting EV occurrence and evaluate the clinical predictive value of the model.@*Methods@#A retrospective cohort study was used in this study. Data of patients with cirrhosis without varicosity, who were hospitalized in Tianjin Second People's Hospital from September 2014 to March 2017 were collected. The location, diameter, and number of esophageal collateral circulation were measured by EUS. The non-selective beta blocker (NSBB) medication history and antiviral therapy were recorded. The time of the first EUS examination was taken as the starting point and the follow-up period was set up as 18 months. The end point was the occurrence of EV or the end of follow-up. The independent risk factors of EV occurrence were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the risk assessment model of EV occurrence was constructed. The predictive value of evaluation model for disease was studied by ROC analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit was used to test the fitting efficiency of the evaluation model.@*Results@#A total of 638 subjects were recruited initially, 13 of them were lost in the course of the study. Finally, 625 cases were included in the study. Among them, 369 cases did not develop EV (the non-progress group) and 256 cases developed EV (the progress group). (1) Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 independent risk factors were selected into the risk assessment model of EV occurrence, and were assigned corresponding scores: no NSBB (3 points), no antiviral treatment (2 points), Child-Pugh stage B (1 point), the diameter of peri-ECV>2 mm (1 point), the number of peri-ECV≥5 (3 points), the diameter of para-ECV≥5 mm (4 points), and the number of para-ECV≥5 (4 points). (2) In the risk assessment model, the risk factor scores ranged from 1 to 4 with a total score of 0-18. The predicted incidence of EV increased from 0.003 to 1.000 with the increase of the score. (3) In the risk assessment model, the total risk score ≤2 was assigned into low-risk group, 3-5 into medium-risk group, and ≥6 into high-risk group. The actual EV incidence of each risk stratification was 2.78% in the low-risk group, 36.36% in the medium-risk group and 93.91% in the high-risk group, respectively. (4) The ROC analysis showed that area under curve (AUC) was 0.947 (P<0.05), suggesting that the risk assessment model had a good effect on predicting disease progression. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that P was 0.450, suggesting that the model fitted well.@*Conclusion@#The risk assessment model based on EUS can accurately predict the occurrence of EV, and is simple and easy to use. The model can provide scientific basis for the prevention and rational treatment of EV in liver cirrhosis.

Trends of CD4+T lymphocyte counts in acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients in Tianjin from 2005 to 2017 / 中华传染病杂志

Objective To assess the trends and characteristics of CD 4 +T lymphocyte counts among patients with acquired immune deficiency syndrome ( AIDS) in Tianjin City.Methods The demographic and clinical characteristics of AIDS patients diagnosed in Tianjin Second People′s Hospital from 2005 to 2017 were analyzed.The CD4 +T lymphocyte count and the frequency of CD 4+T lymphocyte count ＜200 cells／μL were analyzed according to age , transmission route and education level.The chi-square test was used for counting data.The rank sum test was used for the data that did not conform to normal distribution .Results The 3 062 patients were aged (38.2 ±11.9) years.There were 2 867 males (93.6%) aged (37.8 ±11.8) years, and 195 female patients ( 6.4%) aged (43.3 ±12.6) years.The CD4+T lymphocyte counts of these patients presented an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017, with statistically significant differences among different years (Z＝18.871, P＜0.05).The frequency of CD4 +T lymphocytes ＜200 cells／μL showed a decreasing trend , with statistically significant difference in different years (χ2 ＝7.017,P＜0.05).The CD4+T lymphocyte counts in patients of all age groups showed an increasing trend from 2005 to 2017, with statistically significant differences (Z＝6.849, 9.532, 7.146, 6.874, 8.038, 11.249, and 10.059, respectively, all P＜0.05).The CD4+T lymphocyte counts in homosexual patients presented an increasing trend , with statistical significance in different years (Z＝8.038, P＜0.05).The CD4+T lymphocyte counts in patients who received education more than 13 years (include 13 years) presented an increasing trend , with statistical significance (Z＝4.573, P＜ 0.05).Conclusions The median CD4+T lymphocyte counts of AIDS patients receiving primary treatment in Tianjin city are increasing by years , while the proportion of severe immunosuppression is decreasing.Patients who are infected through homosexual transmission and those with high level of education seek medical care earlier.

Value of endoscopic ultrasonography for risk assessment in esophageal varices bleeding / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To assess the predictive value of endoscopic ultrasonography(EUS)for esophageal varices(EV)bleeding by studying the relationship between esophageal collateral veins(ECV), portal vein(PV)trunk with its main branches and EV bleeding. Methods A retrospective cohort study of 114 cases of moderate and severe EV was conducted. The ECV level was determined through EUS. At the same time,diameters of PV,azygos vein(AIV)and spleen vein(SV)were measured through EUS. The predictive value of ECV level and diameters of PV, AIV, SV for EV bleeding were assessed during the 1-year follow-up, which started from the first EUS examination to EV bleeding or the end of follow-up. Results Single factor Cox regression analysis showed severe peri-ECV varices had higher risk than mild in EV bleeding(HR=4.081,95%CI:1.833-9.086,P=0.001); severe para-ECV varices had higher risk than mild in EV bleeding(HR= 4.042, 95%CI:1.814-9.005,P= 0.001). Multivariable Cox retrospective analysis showed ECV level was an effective predictor for EV bleeding, when the peri-ECV and para-ECV were severe varices, EV bleeding risk increased to 3.831 3(P=0.004 3)and 3.493 3(P=0.003 1) times compared with mild respectively. Diameters of PV,AIV and SV could predict EV bleeding(PV AUC=0.959,P<0.001;AIV AUC=0.958,P<0.001;SV AUC=0.830,P<0.001).In addition, when diameter of PV>13.65 mm(sensitivity=0.94, specificity=0.84), AIV>8.65 mm(sensitivity=0.94, specificity=0.89),SV>9.45 mm(sensitivity=0.90, specificity=0.67), EV bleeding risk increased significantly. Conclusion EUS is helpful to predict the risk of moderate and severe EV bleeding, and severe varices of ECV,PV,AIV,and SV can be used as indicators to predict risk of EV bleeding.

The predictive value of endoscopic ultrasound for the recurrence of esophageal varices after endo-scopic esophageal varix ligation / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To assess the relationship between the recurrence of esophageal varices fol?lowing endoscopic esophageal varix ligation (EVL) and esophageal collateral veins(ECV)under endoscopic ultrasound ( EUS) , and analyze the predictive value of EUS for recurrence of esophageal varices. Methods Sixty patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension combined with esophageal varices underwent EVL for eradica?tion of varices. Endoscopy and EUS were performed before ligation to detect and describe the type of esopha?geal varices, and grade, location, and the number of ECV. Over a 12?month period, variceal recurrence was examined. The statistical analyses were performed to assess the relationship between esophageal varices fol?lowing EVL and ECV. Results Of the 60 patients, 29 ( 48?3%) had variceal recurrence within 12 months after EVL. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that severe peri?ECV ( OR=22?67;95%CI:4?37? 117?47, P<0?001) ,severe para?ECV( OR=16?31;95%CI:0?84?108?14, P=0?018) , multiple peri?ECV ( OR=22?67;95%CI:4?37?117?47, P<0?001) , and the presence of perforating veins ( OR=6?67,95%CI:1?46?30?43,P=0?014) were significantly related to the variceal recurrence after EVL. Multivariate logis?tic regression model showed that severe peri?ECV ( OR=24?39;95%CI:2?34?253?78,P=0?008) and mul?tiple peri?ECV (OR=24?39;95%CI: 2?34?253?78,P=0?008) severe para?ECV(OR=19?42; 95%CI:4?84?148?54,P=0?012) remained independent prognostic factors for variceal recurrence. The sensitivity and specificity of multivariate logistic regression model in predicting variceal recurrence were 89?2% and 90?5%, respectively (prognostic value AUC=0?946).The sensitivity and specificity were 86?4% and 87?7% in pre?dicting variceal recurrence( prognostic value AUC=0?871) . Conclusion Recurrence rate of esophageal var?ices after EVL is high. EUS can clearly depict ECV. Severe peri?ECV and multiple peri?ECV are significant and independent prognostic factors associated with variceal recurrence risk. EUS before EVL will help predict variceal recurrence after EVL.

Simulation Analysis of the Pulse Signal on the Electricity Network of Cardiovascular System / 生物医学工程学杂志

Pulse waves contain abundant physiological and pathological information of human body. Research of the relationship between pulse wave and human cardiovascular physiological parameters can not only help clinical diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, but also contribute to develop many new medical instruments. Based on the traditional double elastic cavity model, the human cardiovascular system was established by using the electric network model in this paper. The change of wall pressure and blood flow in artery was simulated. And the influence of the peripheral resistance and vessel compliance to the distribution of blood flow in artery was analyzed. The simulation results were compared with the clinical monitoring results to predict the physiological and pathological state of human body. The result showed that the simulation waveform of arterial wall pressure and blood flow was stabile after the second cardiac cycle. With the increasing of peripheral resistance, the systolic blood pressure of artery increased, the diastolic blood pressure had no significant change, and the pulse pressure of artery increased gradually. With the decreasing of vessel compliance, the vasoactivity became worse and the pulse pressure increased correspondingly. The simulation results were consistent with the clinical monitoring results. The increasing of peripheral resistance and decreasing of vascular compliance indicated that the incidence of hypertension and atherosclerosis was increased.

Numerical analysis of unsteady blood flow model of fluid-solid interaction in carotid artery / 介入放射学杂志

Objective To study the distribution of hemodynamics in carotid artery under the fluid-solid interaction at the typical point of time during a single cardiac cycle, and to explore the mechanism of the formation and development of carotid atherosclerotic plaque. Methods Numerical analysis the blood flow characteristics within a cardiac cycle in carotid artery was analyzed by using computational method of fluid dynamics. Based on the hemodynamic parameters, the influences of the cardiac systole and diastole on the blood flow distribution were analyzed. Results The distribution of blood flow in the carotid artery within a typical cardiac cycle was obtained. Compared with the findings in cardiac diastole, a larger area of blood stasis at the entrance of external carotid artery was observed. In this area, the flow velocity, the wall pressure and the wall shear stress were all lower, while the arterial wall deformation and von Mises equivalent stress were larger. Conclusion Under fluid-solid interaction, the low blood flow in carotid artery causes blood reflux, resulting in the deposition of lipid, fiber and other large molecular materials. The low wall pressure produced“negative pressure” effect, thus the normal blood flow is changed, the flow velocity becomes slow, and the blood supply of the brain becomes insufficient. The low wall shear stress destroys the blood flow near the wall, causing the increase of platelet activity and intimal hyperplasia. The larger arterial wall deformation variable and von Mises equivalent stress can cause stress concentration and increase vascular rupture risk.