Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea / 예방의학회지

OBJECTIVES: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. METHODS: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. RESULTS: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.

Association Between Meat Consumption and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Korean Adults with Metabolic Syndrome / 예방의학회지

OBJECTIVES: The effect of meat consumption on cardiometabolic risk has been continuously studied, but their associations are not conclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the association between the consumption of meat or red meat and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in healthy Korean adults. METHODS: This study evaluated 2374 community-dwelling adults (933 men and 1441 women) who were free of cardiovascular disease or cancer, living in a rural area in Korea. Total meat and red meat intakes were assessed with a validated 103 item-food frequency questionnaire. Carotid IMT was evaluated ultrasonographically, IMTmax was defined as the highest value among IMT of bilateral common carotid arteries. RESULTS: After adjustment for potential confounding factors, the mean IMTmax tended to increase in higher meat consumption groups in both men and women with metabolic syndrome (p for trend= 0.027 and 0.049, respectively), but not in participants without metabolic syndrome. Frequent meat consumption (> or =5 servings/week) was significantly associated with higher IMTmax in men with metabolic syndrome (by 0.08 mm, p=0.015). Whereas, the association was not significant in women (by 0.05 mm, p=0.115). Similar but attenuated findings were shown with red meat intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a higher meat consumption may be associated with a higher carotid IMT in Korean adults with metabolic syndrome. The frequent meat consumption (> or =5 servings/week), compared with the others, was associated with a higher carotid IMTmax only in men with metabolic syndrome. Further research is required to explore optimal meat consumption in people with specific medical conditions.

Extraarticular Subtalar Arthrodesis for Pes Planovalgus: An Interim Result of 50 Feet in Patients with Spastic Diplegia

BACKGROUND: There are no reports of the pressure changes across the foot after extraarticular subtalar arthrodesis for a planovalgus foot deformity in cerebral palsy. This paper reviews our results of extraarticular subtalar arthrodesis using a cannulated screw and cancellous bone graft. METHODS: Fifty planovalgus feet in 30 patients with spastic diplegia were included. The mean age at the time of surgery was 9 years, and the mean follow-up period was 3 years. The radiographic, gait, and dynamic foot pressure changes after surgery were investigated. RESULTS: All patients showed union and no recurrence of the deformity. Correction of the abduction of the forefoot, subluxation of the talonavicular joint, and the hindfoot valgus was confirmed radiographically. However, the calcaneal pitch was not improved significantly after surgery. Peak dorsiflexion of the ankle during the stance phase was increased after surgery, and the peak plantarflexion at push off was decreased. The peak ankle plantar flexion moment and power were also decreased. Postoperative elevation of the medial longitudinal arch was expressed as a decreased relative vertical impulse of the medial midfoot and an increased relative vertical impulse (RVI) of the lateral midfoot. However, the lower than normal RVI of the 1st and 2nd metatarsal head after surgery suggested uncorrected forefoot supination. The anteroposterior and lateral paths of the center of pressure were improved postoperatively. CONCLUSIONS: Our experience suggests that the index operation reliably corrects the hindfoot valgus in patients with spastic diplegia. Although the operation corrects the plantar flexion of the talus, it does not necessarily correct the plantarflexed calcaneus and forefoot supination. However, these findings are short-term and longer term observations will be needed.