Prediction of Prenatal Ultrasound Screening Staff's Situation in Beijing Based on ARIMA Model / 中国医学科学院学报

Objective To understand the current situation and predict the trends in number and composition of prenatal ultrasound screening staff in Beijing. Methods We analyzed the region,age,professional title and other characteristics of prenatal ultrasound screening personnel in Beijing during 2007-2015.We then built an ARIMA model basing on the current situation to predict the number and composition of the staff in 2016-2020. Results The number of prenatal ultrasound screening staff showed an upward trend in 2007-2020 and was predicted to reach 1269 in 2020.During this period,the educational achievement and professional title of the staff showed a downward trend,and the working years became shorter,mainly below 5 years.The proportion of resident doctors remained at 26.6%,and that of the staff receiving further education would reach 43.2% by the end of 2020. Conclusion The prediction under ARIMA model suggests that efforts should be made to strengthen the training of young doctors and provide them opportunities for further study.

Operation of Prenatal Ultrasound Screening Institutions in Beijing from 2010 to 2015 / 中国医学科学院学报

Objective To learn the capability and functioning status of prenatal ultrasound screening institutions in Beijing and inform decision-making on the optimization of prenatal screening management. Method By using the data from the second and the third National Special Survey on Prenatal Screening and Prenatal Diagnostic Services in Beijing,we analyzed the distribution,human resources,workload,technology,and equipment of ultrasound screening institutions in Beijing as well as their changing trends. Results From 2013 to 2015,there were 100 prenatal ultrasound screening institutions,833 technicians,and 383 prenatal ultrasound screening instruments in Beijing,offering over 600 000 service sessions.In contrast,there were 93 institutions with a total service volume of 644 100 between 2010 and 2012.The general hospitals,tertiary hospitals,and urban areas(especially urban functional development areas and new urban development areas)were the main sources of the services.In particular,the maternal and child health care hospitals in Beijing provided the highest amount of services per unit of resources.The average prenatal ultrasound screening rate was about 98.05%.The service delivery trended to transfer from urban areas to remote county areas and from secondary institutions to tertiary institutions.Conclusion The operation and management of prenatal ultrasound screening institutions in Beijing are relatively standard.The ultrasound screening rate is relatively high in the second trimester,and the distribution of the services has constantly been improved since 2010.