Development and validation of a prognostic prediction model for patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer incorporating high-risk pathological features / 中华外科杂志

Objective: To examine a predictive model that incorporating high risk pathological factors for the prognosis of stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Methods: This study retrospectively collected clinicopathological information and survival outcomes of stage Ⅰ~Ⅲ colon cancer patients who underwent curative surgery in 7 tertiary hospitals in China from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. A total of 1 650 patients were enrolled, aged (M(IQR)) 62 (18) years (range: 14 to 100). There were 963 males and 687 females. The median follow-up period was 51 months. The Cox proportional hazardous regression model was utilized to select high-risk pathological factors, establish the nomogram and scoring system. The Bootstrap resampling method was utilized for internal validation of the model, the concordance index (C-index) was used to assess discrimination and calibration curves were presented to assess model calibration. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves after risk grouping, and Cox regression was used to compare disease-free survival between subgroups. Results: Age (HR=1.020, 95%CI: 1.008 to 1.033, P=0.001), T stage (T3:HR=1.995,95%CI:1.062 to 3.750,P=0.032;T4:HR=4.196, 95%CI: 2.188 to 8.045, P<0.01), N stage (N1: HR=1.834, 95%CI: 1.307 to 2.574, P<0.01; N2: HR=3.970, 95%CI: 2.724 to 5.787, P<0.01) and number of lymph nodes examined (≥36: HR=0.438, 95%CI: 0.242 to 0.790, P=0.006) were independently associated with disease-free survival. The C-index of the scoring model (model 1) based on age, T stage, N stage, and dichotomous variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12 and ≥12) was 0.723, and the C-index of the scoring model (model 2) based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12, 12 to <24, 24 to <36, and ≥36) was 0.726. A scoring system was established based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of lymph nodes examined, the 3-year DFS of the low-risk (≤1), middle-risk (2 to 4) and high-risk (≥5) group were 96.3% (n=711), 89.0% (n=626) and 71.4% (n=313), respectively. Statistically significant difference was observed among groups (P<0.01). Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival after curative surgery in patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Incorporating the number of lymph nodes examined as a multi-categorical variable into the T and N staging system could improve prognostic predictive validity.

Hospitalization burden of hand, foot and mouth disease in Anhua county of Hunan province, 2013-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To estimate the serotype and age-specific hospitalization burden associated with hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Anhua county of Hunan province, between October 2013 and September 2016. Methods: We collected hospitalization records of HFMD patients from 6 virological surveillance hospitals, and reimbursement records through new rural cooperative medical system from 23 township health centers to estimate the age-specific hospitalization burden of HFMD in Anhua. Combined with the results of virological surveillance, the serotype-specific hospitalization burden of HFMD in Anhua, was estimated. Results: During the three years, it was estimated that 3 541 clinical diagnosed HFMD cases, including 3 146 laboratory-confirmed HFMD cases, were hospitalized in Anhua, but only one was diaguosed as being severe. The estimated average hospitalization rate was 723/100 000(95%CI: 699/100 000-747/100 000) for clinical diagnosed HFMD and 642/100 000 (95%CI: 620/100 000-665/100 000) for laboratory-confirmed HFMD between October 2013 and September 2016. The cases caused by Cox A16 (208/100 000) and Cox A6 (202/100 000) had higher hospitalization rates compared with the cases caused by EV71 (130/100 000), Cox A10 (38/100 000) and other enterovirus (64/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.001). HFMD-associated hospitalization rates peaked in children aged 1 year (3 845/100 000), and then decreased with age. Compared with the hospitalized HFMD caused by EV71 and Cox A16, Cox A6-associated hospitalizations mainly occurred in younger age groups (P<0.001). Conclusion: Our study revealed a substantial hospitalization burden associated with mild HFMD caused by EV71, Cox A16, Cox A6 and Cox A10, especially in young children, in Anhua.

Relationship between white spot syndrome virus [WSSV] loads and characterizations of water quality in Litopenaeus vannamei culture ponds during the tropical storm

An in-situ experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of tropical storm on the white spot syndrome virus [WSSV] loads in Litopenaeus vannamei rearing ponds. White spot syndrome virus loads, heterotrophic bacteria, Vibrio and water quality [including temperature, dissolved oxygen [DO], salinity, pH, NH4-N, and NO2-N] were continually monitored through one tropical storm. The WSSV loads decreased when tropical storm made landfall, and substantially increased when typhoon passed. The variation of WSSV loads was correlated with DO, temperature, heterotrophic bacteria count, and ammonia-N concentrations. These results suggested that maintaining high level DO and promoting heterotrophic bacteria growth in the shrimp ponds might prevent the diseases' outbreak after the landfall of tropical storm