RESUMEN
@#Abstract：Objective To evaluate the basic development status of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022, analyze the distribution and characteristics of these emergencies, as to provide important scientific basis for the study and formulation of economic health development planning policies, for the health security policies and infectious disease prevention and control strategies in Hainan Province. Methods The relevant statistical data of public health emergencies involving infectious diseases reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 were collected, and the status quo of these emergencies was analyzed by using descriptive data statistical analysis method. The ARIMA model was used to predict the number of public health emergencies reported by infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2023 to 2025. Results From 2013 to 2022, a total of 482 public health emergencies were reported in Hainan Province, of which 426 were infectious disease public health emergencies, accounting for 88.38%, with a total of 8 876 cases, an incidence rate of 0.61%, and eight deaths, a case fatality rate of 0.09%. The major public health emergencies of infectious diseases were unclassified events and general events, accounting for 69.25% and 29.58%, respectively. The main diseases were novel coronavirus infection, chickenpox and hand, foot and mouth disease, accounting for 45.07%, 15.49% and 11.97%, respectively; in terms of time distribution, the number of reported incidents showed an upward trend over time, with a decline in 2021, and mainly had three peak periods, April, August and December, with a total of 220 cases reported; in terms of regional distribution, the major cities and counties reported were Haikou, Wanning and Wenchang, accounting for 27.46%, 19.25% and 9.86%, respectively; in terms of location distribution, the events mainly occurred in schools, accounting for 42.02% of the total number of incidents. The ARIMA(1, 1, 0) model was used to predict infectious disease public health emergencies, and the results showed that the forecast state would be stable from 2023 to 2025, with no obvious upward trend, that is, the fluctuation range of public health emergencies related to infectious diseases in Hainan Province would be stable in the next three years. Conclusion The number of infectious disease public health emergencies reported in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022 has increased year by year, with a decline in 2021. Although the forecast shows that public health emergencies such as infectious diseases are relatively stable with no obvious upward trend, the prevention and control of the epidemic should not be taken lightly. Hainan Province should continue to increase the investment in monitoring public health emergencies, improve the information system of public disease prevention and control, and carry out real-time monitoring of public health emergencies of infectious diseases.