The incidence discriminant model for close contacts of active tuberculosis patients / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To establish a discriminant model and to provide a relatively accurate scientific basis for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and detection of the close contacts. Methods Through logistic regression analysis, key factors were selected according to Bayes theory and key factors of TB incidence of the close contacts were screened as well as a discriminant model was established. Results The non-TB incidence discriminant function of the close contacts was described as: Y1= -39.831 (constant) + 1.927 X, (sputum-frequency) + 3.528 X2 (education) + 0.309 X3 (contact time) + 5.893 X4 (evade) + 2.140 X5 (ventilation) + 8.706 X6 (cough) + 30.970 X7 (fever). The discriminant function of non-TB incidence of the close contacts was as: Y2 =-57.875 (constant) + 2.343 X1 (sputum-frequency) + 3.965 X2 (education) + 0.361 X3 (contact time) + 6.296 X4 (evade) + 1.348 X5 (ventilation) + 12.984 X6 (cough) + 36.555 X7 (fever). Conduslon The diseriminant model night be used to contribute to the early diagnosis, early intervention and timely treatment on those close contacts of tuberculosis cases.

Logistic analysis on risk factors related to smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the risk factors on relapsing tuberculosis related to smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis which had been cured for five years.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis registered in 1995 from ten countries in Hubei province were studied and logistic regression was used for data analysis.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 5-year relapse rate of smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis was 3.85 percent. Risk factors related to relapse would include being non-modeled county, negative smear after treated for three months, the class of retreatment, management of non-DOTS, method of chemotherapy and patients that did not get treated by the tuberculosis institute, with odds ratios of 0.15, 4.62, 3.68, 5.88 and 6.47, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Effect standard, regulation DOTS and the centralized management measure might have had effects on decreasing the relapse rate.</p>