RESUMEN
Based on the principle of Joinpoint regression (JPR) model and the additivity of Poisson distribution, this paper constructed a JPR model for series cumulative data. The notifiable incidence number of dengue fever cases per week and weekly cumulative data in Guangdong province from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed, using (mean squared errors) MSE and (mean absolute percentage error) MAPE to evaluate different models. Except for 2015, the MSE and MAPE produced from the logarithmic linear JPR model based on weekly cumulative incidence number were smaller than those based on the weekly data. The fitting accuracy of JPR model for series cumulative data for trend analysis had been improved significantly. This model could be applied to the analysis of the trend change and the prediction of staged cumulative incidence.
RESUMEN
Objectives Through analyzing the published scientific papers by the professionals of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangdong Province(GDCDC) from 2001 to 2006,to put forward some suggestions for the research management,the discipline development and the personnel training.Methods Literature quantitative analysis and health statistics methods were used to analyze these papers.Results The professionals of GDCDC published a total of 924 papers with an annual average of 154 in 114 kinds of periodicals from 2001 to 2006 of the 924 papers.264 papers(28.6%) were published in the key Chinese periodicals,320 papers(34.6%)in the South China Journal of Preventive Medicine,68 papers (7.4%)in the Chinese Journal of Health Laboratory Technology and 51 papers(5.5%)in the China Public Health.Of the 924 papers,433 papers(46.9%)belonged in the field of health laboratory technology,354 papers(38.3%)in the field of disease prevention and control,and 70 papers(7.6%)in the field of public health.During the six years,79.2% of the total professionals Published at least one paper,58professionals published at least six papers.Of the 924 corresponding authors.56.8% aged 30～40 years old.48.9% had a bachelor degree,and 45.9% had a senior professional title.Conclusions In recent years,the quantity and quality of papers published by the professionals of GDCDC were improved.The professional's ability to conduct scientific research was enhanced and the research level of GDCDC wag raised year by year.The predominant specialties of the academic research were in the field of health laboratory technology and disease prevention and control.But the professional work and discipline development of Public health should be sirengthened further.