RESUMEN
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar os resultados da aplicação de um experimento de preferência declarada (DCE - discrete choice experiment) realizado em 2012 com 277 estudantes do último ano dos cursos de medicina do Estado de Minas Gerais, Brasil. O experimento permitiu investigar as preferências dos estudantes sobre o trabalho futuro como médicos na atenção primária à saúde, com base em de cenários de emprego hipotéticos que visavam aferir a probabilidade de deslocamento para áreas com escassez de médicos. A aplicação do DCE envolveu (i) uma etapa qualitativa para definição dos atributos e seus respectivos níveis que comporiam os cenários de emprego, (ii) uma etapa de construção e aplicação do instrumento e (iii) uma etapa de análise com a aplicação de logit multinomial de probabilidade condicional para estimativa dos pesos de cada atributo e construção de cenários de probabilidade de escolha. Os resultados apontaram que o atributo do emprego que mais impactou a escolha dos respondentes foi o de localização do trabalho, seguido por condições de trabalho, remuneração, acesso à residência médica, tipo de vínculo e carga de trabalho. Constatou-se que os entrevistados de faculdades privadas, com maior renda familiar e do sexo feminino, em geral, têm maior resistência para deslocar-se para as regiões urbanas inseguras e áreas remotas do interior. Os cenários de emprego que se mostraram mais plausíveis em termos de intervenção pública foram aqueles que combinavam os salários de valores intermediários, boas condições de trabalho e obtenção de 10 a 20 pontos adicionais nos exames de residência médica.
This article presents the results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in 2012 with 277 final-year medical students from Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The experiment tested students' preferences concerning future work as physicians in primary health care, based on hypothetical job scenarios aimed at measuring the likelihood of placement in areas with a shortage of doctors. Application of DCE involved (i) a qualitative stage to define the attributes and their respective levels to comprise the job scenarios, (ii) construction and application of the instrument, and (iii) analysis with application of multinomial logit with conditional probability to estimate the weight of attributes and to construct scenarios for choice probability. The results indicate that the job attribute that most impacted students' choice was location, followed by job conditions, pay, access to medical residency, type of employment relationship, and workload. Students from private medical schools, with higher family income, and females were generally more likely to resist job assignments in unsafe urban areas and remote areas of the countryside. The job scenarios that proved most plausible in terms of public intervention were those that combined middle-level wages, good working conditions, and 10 to 20 bonus points on medical residency exams.
This article presents the results of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in 2012 with 277 final-year medical students from Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The experiment tested students' preferences concerning future work as physicians in primary health care, based on hypothetical job scenarios aimed at measuring the likelihood of placement in areas with a shortage of doctors. Application of DCE involved (i) a qualitative stage to define the attributes and their respective levels to comprise the job scenarios, (ii) construction and application of the instrument, and (iii) analysis with application of multinomial logit with conditional probability to estimate the weight of attributes and to construct scenarios for choice probability. The results indicate that the job attribute that most impacted students' choice was location, followed by job conditions, pay, access to medical residency, type of employment relationship, and workload. Students from private medical schools, with higher family income, and females were generally more likely to resist job assignments in unsafe urban areas and remote areas of the countryside. The job scenarios that proved most plausible in terms of public intervention were those that combined middle-level wages, good working conditions, and 10 to 20 bonus points on medical residency exams.