RESUMEN
Objective @#To explore the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis，and to construct a nomogram model predicting overall of patients with rectal cancer at T1 and T2 stage．@*Methods @#Retrospective analysis was made on the data of 353 patients diagnosed as rectal cancer，who received the radical rectal resection．The collect- ed data were as follows : age，body mass index (BMI) ，carcinoembryonic antigen ( CEA) ，tumor size，histological type，T stage，N stage，tumor location and number of lymph nodes detected，which were used to perform Kaplan- Meier curve and Log-rank test for univariate analysis and Cox regression for multivariate analysis．The nomogram model was established to predict the overall survival of patients. @*Results @#Age≥60 years，Mucinous adenocarcino- ma，poorly differentiation ，T2 stage ，lymph node metastasis ，BMI ≥25 kg / m2 ，CEA ≥5 μg / L and number of lymph nodes detected ＜12 were associated with overall survival of patients with rectal cancer at T1 and T2 stage (all P＜0. 05) ．Cox regression showed that age≥60 years，T2 stage，mucinous adenocarcinoma，lymph node me- tastasis，CEA≥5 μg / L，BMI ≥25 kg / m2 and lymph node detection number ＜12 were independent risk factors. Based on the above independent risk factors，the nomogram model was constructed，and the predicted curve was in good agreement with the actual survival curve ( C-index = 0. 779) ．@*Conclusion @#Age≥60 years，T2 stage，mucin- ous adenocarcinoma，lymph node metastasis，CEA≥5 μg / L，BMI≥25 kg / m2 and the number of lymph nodes de- tected ＜12 are independent risk factors ，and the nomogram established in this study can effectively predict the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer at T1 and T2 stage.