Estimation of COVID-19 incidence in Shanghai under optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To quantitatively estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in different backgrounds, including vaccination coverage, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures, home quarantine willingness and international arrivals, and the demands of healthcare resource in Shanghai in the context of optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the natural history of 2019-nCoV, local vaccination coverage and NPI performance, an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infections-Removed (SEIR) epidemic dynamic model was established for the estimation of the incidence of COVID-19 and demand of hospital beds in Shanghai by using the data on December 1, 2022 as the basis. Results: Based on current vaccination coverage, it is estimated that 180 184 COVID-19 cases would need treatment in hospitals in Shanghai within 100 days. When the booster vaccination coverage reaches an ideal level, the number of the cases needing hospitalization would decrease by 73.20%. School closure or school closure plus workplace closure could reduce the peak demand of regular beds by 24.04% or 37.73%, respectively, compared with the situation without NPI. Increased willingness of home quarantine could reduce the number of daily new cases and delay incidence peak of COVID-19. The number of international arrivals has little impact on the development of the epidemic. Conclusions: According to the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and the actual situation of vaccination in Shanghai, the incidence of COVID-19 and health resource demand might be reduced by increasing vaccination coverage and early implementation of NPI.

Therapeutic effect of Xinmailong combined trimetazidine on chronic heart failure / 心血管康复医学杂志

Objective:To explore therapeutic effect of Xinmailong combined trimetazidine on patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).Methods:A total of 155 CHF inpatients hospitalized in our department from Oct 2013 to Apr 2016 were selected.According to therapeutic method,patients were divided into routine treatment group (n＝50),Xinmailong group (n＝52,received Xinmailong injection based on routine treatment group ) and combined treatment group (n＝53,received trimetazidine based on Xinmailong group ),all groups were treated for eight weeks.Stroke volume (SV),cardiac output (CO),cardiac index (CI),left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF),transmitral early diastolic peak flow velocity/late diastolic peak flow velocity (E/A),6min walking distance (6MWD) and total ef-fective rate were measured and compared among three groups before and after treatment.Results:Total effective rate of combined treatment group was significantly higher than that of routine treatment group (88.7% vs.66.0%,P＝0.006),but there were no significant difference between combined treatment group and Xinmailong group (P＝0.171).Compared with before treatment,after eight-week treatment,there were significant rise in SV,CO,CI,LVEF,E/A and 6MWD in three groups,P＝0.001 all.Compared with routine treatment group after eight-week treatment,there were significant rise in SV,CI,LVEF and 6MWD in Xinmailong group,P＜0.01 all;compared with routine treatment group and Xinmailong group,there were significant rise in SV [ (48.6 ± 8.9) ml vs.(53.6 ± 8.5) ml vs.(60.2 ± 8.4) ml],CO [ (4.4 ± 0.5) L/min vs.(4.5 ± 0.6) L/min vs.(5.7 ± 0.6) L/min],CI [ (3.1 ± 0.9) L·min-1·m-2vs.(3.7 ± 0.3) L·min-1·m-2vs.(4.3 ± 0.4) L·min-1·m-2],LVEF [ (42.3 ± 8.4)% vs.(46.6 ± 7.9)% vs.(53.2 ± 7.3)%],E/A [ (1.0 ± 0.3) vs.(1.1 ± 0.3) vs.(1.4 ± 0.2)] and 6MWD [ (342.88 ± 52.44) m vs.(420.90 ± 36.86) m vs.(443.55 ± 25.30) m] in combined treatment group,P＝0.001 all.Conclusion:Xinmailong combined trimetazidine can improve cardiac function,hemodynamics,ventricular re-modeling and therapeutic effect in patients with chronic heart failure.