RESUMEN
Objective:To analyze the predictive factors of autogenous arteriovenous fistula (AVF) maturation and tentatively discuss the intervention timing of assisted maturation.Methods:It was a retrospective study. The data of patients with newly established AVF and regular follow-up in Haidian Hospital, the Third Hospital of Peking University from August 1, 2018 to March 31, 2022 were analyzed. The patients were divided into mature group and immature group based on whether they met clinical maturity or ultrasonic maturity criteria 3 months after AVF establishment.The general data, preoperative laboratory examination and postoperative ultrasonic examination parameters were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis model was used to analyze the related factors of AVF maturation, and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of each factor for AVF maturation and intervention timing.Results:A total of 568 patients were included, with age of (56.86±13.82) years old, 339 males (59.68%), and 229 females (40.32%). There were 380 patients in the maturation group and 188 patients in the immature group. The total rate of AVF maturation was 66.90% (380/568). The anastomosis diameter ( t=9.732, P < 0.001), ln(anastomosis artery diameter)( t=10.116, P < 0.001), anastomosis vein diameter ( t=13.961, P < 0.001), ln(brachial artery diameter)( t=9.362, P < 0.001) and brachial artery blood flow ( t=16.542, P < 0.001) of postoperation one month, and anastomosis diameter ( t=7.356, P < 0.001), anastomosis artery diameter ( t=11.117, P < 0.001), anastomosis vein diameter ( t=12.332, P < 0.001), ln(brachial artery diameter) ( t=7.956, P < 0.001) and brachial artery blood flow ( t=13.803, P < 0.001) of postoperation three months in the mature group were significantly higher than those in the immature group. Logistic regression analysis models showed anastomosis vein diameter at 1 month after surgery ( OR=0.577, 95% CI 0.342-0.975, P=0.040), brachial arterial blood flow at 1 month after surgery ( OR=0.988, 95% CI 0.996-1.000, P=0.043) and brachial arterial blood flow at 3 months after surgery ( OR=0.997, 95% CI 0.995-0.999, P=0.002) were the independent relevant factors of AVF maturation. When the anastomosis vein diameter ≥ 3.90 mm at 1 month after AVF surgery ( AUC=0.842, 95% CI 0.809-0.871, P < 0.001), the blood flow of brachial artery ≥ 446.90 ml/min at 1 month after AVF surgery ( AUC=0.880, 95% CI 0.850-0.906, P < 0.001), the critical value of the combined index of anastomotic vein diameter and blood flow of brachial artery at 1 month after fitting ≥ 0.44 ( AUC=0.889, 95% CI 0.860-0.914, P < 0.001) and brachial arterial blood flow ≥ 595.00 ml/min ( AUC=0.857, 95% CI 0.822-0.888, P < 0.001), the unassisted maturation of AVF could be predicted. Conclusions:The anastomosis vein diameter ≥ 3.90 mm at 1 month after AVF surgery, and the blood flow of brachial artery ≥ 446.90 ml/min at 3 months after AVF surgery, or the critical value of combined index of both after fitting ≥ 0.44 can predict the unassisted maturation of AVF, and one month after surgery may be the opportunity for early intervention to promote maturation.