The Prospective and Simulation on the Financing Amount of Basic Medical Insurance in Liaoning / 中国卫生经济

Objective: Using system dynamics to provide prospective and simulation of double exponential smoothing on Basic Medical Insurance Fund and related indexes from 2013-2022 in Liaoning. Methods: Using the post testing to select the best value of αand projecting the whole procedure of forecast into the software of system dynamics to get the prospective result. Results: In ending of simulation, the increase of fund and other objects will reach about 2 times as much as those in 2013 , and out-of-pocket in total expenditure on health will be declined greatly. Conclusion: The economy of province is developing fast while Basic Medical Insurance is in relatively lower level.