Characteristics of injury-induced death and potential years of life lost among residents in Changsha in 2014-2021 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To investigate the injury death and its potential years of life lost among residents in Changsha from 2014 to 2021. Methods Data was obtained from the routine death cause monitoring records, and descriptive analysis was conducted using SPSS 21.0 to analyze the characteristics of injury death and life loss. Joinpoint software was applied to analyze and compare the mortality rates of injury death causes in different years. Results From 2014 to 2021, a total of 23862 deaths from injuries were reported in residents in Changsha, with an average annual crude mortality rate of 37.23/105 and an average standardized mortality rate of 33.82/105. The age standardized rate in the male was higher than that in the female (χ2＝2496.29，P=0.000). The standardized mortality rate of injury decreased year by year (APC=-4.013%，t=-3.052，P=0.022). The top five causes of death from injurie were traffic accident, accidental fall, drowning, suicide, and accidental poisoning. The leading causes of injury death were drowning in the age group of 0 to 14 years old, traffic accident in the group of 15 to 64 years old, and accidental fall in the group of 65 years old and above. From 2014 to 2021, the cumulative potential years of life lost (PYLL) of residents in Changsha was 398280.00 person years, the average years of life lost (AYLL) was 23.82 years per person, and the potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR) was 6.68‰. The top 5 types of injuries for PYLL were traffic accident, drowning, accidental fall, suicide, and accidental poisoning. Conclusion Injury is one of the important public health problems affecting the health of the residents in Changsha, and corresponding intervention measures should be taken according to the injury types of different populations.

Accuracy and influential factors for hypertension prevalence based on questionnaire interview / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVES@#To assess the accuracy and influential factors for hypertension prevalence based on questionnaire interview by on-site measurement.@*METHODS@#Data were from the baseline surveys for chronic diseases among residents ages ≥18 years old in 4 districts/counties of Changsha between 2013 and 2014. All surveys adopted multi-stage random sampling to select samples. The Bootstrap resampling method was used to randomly select 1 000 repeated samples with replacement to obtain robust estimate of subgroup prevalence rates. Hypertension prevalence was calculated by using the data from both questionnaire interview and on-site measurement. Using the results of on-site measurement as the golden standard, the accuracy of questionnaire interview and 95% uncertainty interval were estimated. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the influential factors for the underestimated hypotension prevalence based on questionnaire interview.@*RESULTS@#The hypertension prevalence from on-site measurement among the residents in the 4 districts/counties of Changsha was significantly higher than that from questionnaire interview (prevalence ratio: 1.26-2.31). Taking the results of on-site measurement as the golden standard, the sensitivity of questionnaire interview on hypotension prevalence range from 41.76% to 74.83% among the 4 districts/counties, and the specificity fell between 98.51% and 99.46%. The underestimation in questionnaire interview was more likely to occur in the youngest age group (18-34 years old), males, and residents were at lower levels of education in all 4 districts/counties.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Compared with the on-site measurement, questionnaire interview significantly under-estimate the hypertension prevalence, suggesting that the on-site measurement method should be firstly considered in epidemiological surveys for hypertension prevalence. If only the questionnaire method can be used to collect data due to conditions, it is necessary to make corresponding corrections to the questionnaire results with reference to relevant research evidence.

Analysis on diabetes prevalence and its risk factors among adults in Changsha city / 中华健康管理学杂志

Objective To analyze the diabetes prevalence and it's risk factors among adults in Changsha city and provide the scientific evidence for diabetes prevention and control. Methods The stratified multi-stage cluster sampling method was used to collect data of residents(≥18 years old)from 5 counties or districts as the subjects during 2013 to 2014. The survey included structured questionnaire, physical examination and blood tests. Risk factors of diabetes were analyzed by Chi-square test and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results A total of 19 812 subjects were investigated. The effective response subjects were 19 580; 1 970 subjects had diabetes and the crude prevalence of diabetes was 10.06%. The prevalence rates of male and female was 8.95%(746/8 335) and 10.88%(1 224/11 245) respectively, with statistically significant difference(χ2=19.80, P<0.01). The prevalence rates of urban and suburb were 11.34%(1 048/9 238)and 8.92%(922/10 342)respectively,which has statistical significance (χ2=31.82,P<0.01).The prevalence of diabetes between 1.10%and 18.03%among all age groups, which has statistical significance among different age groups(χ2=797.67, P<0.01), and increased with the increase of age(χ2trend=731.99, P<0.01). The prevalence of diabetes of those whose educational background was Junior high school, senior high school, college, bachelor or above was 10.88%(1 529/14 050), 9.06%(290/3 201), 6.94%(97/1 398), 5.84%(52/891) respectively, The difference of diabetes prevalence also showed statistical significance among population with different educational background(χ2=46.62,P<0.01). The prevalence rates of people with hypertension and without hypertension were 18.33%(1 180/6 437)and 6.02%(790/13 132) respectively, which has statistical significance(χ2=723.68, P<0.01). The results of multi variant logistic regression analysis indicated that high blood pressure(OR=2.24), obesity(OR=2.12), overweight(OR=1.48), living in urban area(OR=1.54) and high age(OR=1.36)were independent risk factors of diabetes. Conclusion The diabetes prevalence in Changsha was high. The comprehensive prevention measures according to risk factors of diabetes should be taken, especially should focus on the people 40 years of age or older, with high blood pressure, being overweight or obese and living in urban area.

Forecast the trend of burden from fatal road traffic injuries between 2015 and 2030 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To predict the burden caused by fatal road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Methods We searched the websites of United Nations Population Division,United States Department of Agriculture,World Health Organization,China Energy Research Foundation and other agencies to obtain the predictive values of gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,urbanization, motorization and education from 2015 to 2030 in China. Predicted values were then applied to log-linear models to estimate the numbers and years of life lost due to road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Results The mortality rate caused by road traffic injury decreased slightly,from 13.7/100 000 in 2015 to 11.8/100 000 in 2030. 191,189,183,169 thousand persons were estimated to die from road traffic crashes in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,showing a declining trend. Years of Life Lost(YLLs)caused by road traffic deaths were predicted to be 6 918,6 634,6 189,5 513 thousand years in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,also showing a gradual downward trend. But the YLLs displayed an increase among people at 55 years of age or older,between 2015 and 2030. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed a stable forecasting result. Conclusion Mortality, number of deaths and YLLs from road traffic crashes were predicted to decrease slightly,between 2015 and 2030 but the number of deaths and YLLs due to road traffic injuries will continue to increase from 2015 to 2030.

Forecast the trend of burden from fatal road traffic injuries between 2015 and 2030 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To predict the burden caused by fatal road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Methods We searched the websites of United Nations Population Division,United States Department of Agriculture,World Health Organization,China Energy Research Foundation and other agencies to obtain the predictive values of gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,urbanization, motorization and education from 2015 to 2030 in China. Predicted values were then applied to log-linear models to estimate the numbers and years of life lost due to road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030. Results The mortality rate caused by road traffic injury decreased slightly,from 13.7/100 000 in 2015 to 11.8/100 000 in 2030. 191,189,183,169 thousand persons were estimated to die from road traffic crashes in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,showing a declining trend. Years of Life Lost(YLLs)caused by road traffic deaths were predicted to be 6 918,6 634,6 189,5 513 thousand years in 2015,2020,2025 and 2030,respectively,also showing a gradual downward trend. But the YLLs displayed an increase among people at 55 years of age or older,between 2015 and 2030. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed a stable forecasting result. Conclusion Mortality, number of deaths and YLLs from road traffic crashes were predicted to decrease slightly,between 2015 and 2030 but the number of deaths and YLLs due to road traffic injuries will continue to increase from 2015 to 2030.

Development of forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To develop the forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries and to provide evidence for predicting the future trends on road traffic injuries.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Data on the mortality of road traffic injury including factors as gender and age in different countries, were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Other information on GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education were collected from online resources of World Bank, WHO, the United Nations Population Division and other agencies. We fitted logarithmic models of road traffic injury mortality by gender and age group, including predictors of GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education. Sex- and age-specific forecasting models developed by WHO that including GDP per capita, education and time etc. were also fitted. Coefficient of determination(R(2)) was used to compare the performance between our modes and WHO models.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>2 626 sets of data were collected from 153 countries/regions for both genders, between 1965 and 2010. The forecasting models of road traffic injury mortality based on GDP per capita, motorization, urbanization and education appeared to be statistically significant(P < 0.001), and the coefficients of determination for males at the age groups of 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+ were 22.7% , 31.1%, 51.8%, 52.3%, 44.9%, 41.8%, 40.1%, 25.5%, respectively while the coefficients for these age groups in women were 22.9%, 32.6%, 51.1%, 49.3%, 41.3%, 35.9%, 30.7%, 20.1%, respectively. The WHO models that were based on the GDP per capita, education and time variables were statistically significant (P < 0.001)and the coefficients of determination were 14.9% , 22.0%, 31.5%, 33.1% , 30.7%, 28.5%, 27.7% and 17.8% for males, but 14.1%, 20.6%, 30.4%, 31.8%, 26.7%, 24.3%, 17.3% and 8.8% for females, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The forecasting models that we developed seemed to be better than those developed by WHO.</p>

Forecast the trend of burden from fatal road traffic injuries between 2015 and 2030 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To predict the burden caused by fatal road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We searched the websites of United Nations Population Division,United States Department of Agriculture, World Health Organization, China Energy Research Foundation and other agencies to obtain the predictive values of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, urbanization, motorization and education from 2015 to 2030 in China. Predicted values were then applied to log-linear models to estimate the numbers and years of life lost due to road traffic injuries from 2015 to 2030.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The mortality rate caused by road traffic injury decreased slightly, from 13.7/100 000 in 2015 to 11.8/100 000 in 2030. 191, 189, 183, 169 thousand persons were estimated to die from road traffic crashes in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively, showing a declining trend. Years of Life Lost (YLLs) caused by road traffic deaths were predicted to be 6 918, 6 634, 6 189, 5 513 thousand years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, respectively, also showing a gradual downward trend. But the YLLs displayed an increase among people at 55 years of age or older, between 2015 and 2030. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed a stable forecasting result.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Mortality, number of deaths and YLLs from road traffic crashes were predicted to decrease slightly, between 2015 and 2030 but the number of deaths and YLLs due to road traffic injuries will continue to increase from 2015 to 2030.</p>

Analysis of the incidence of short-term illness in four counties of Hunan Province / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To determine the prevalence and incidence of illness of two-week duration, and the factors influencing these, among residents 15 years and older in four counties of Hunan Province.@*METHODS@#Data were sampled from four counties of Hunan Province for the Fourth National Health Service Survey. Incidence and two-week prevalence of disease were used to assess the health service needs of residents. A non-conditional, stepwise logistic regression was employed to explore the influencing factors.@*RESULTS@#The two-week prevalence and incidence were 11.5% and 3.9%, respectively, in four counties of Hunan. The three leading diseases of two-week prevalence were: respiratory diseases, digestive diseases, and musculoskeletal diseases. Non-conditional stepwise logistic regression showed that urban residents had 0.64 times the risk of two-week illness compared with the rural residents (P< 0.05); residents in the 45-59 year age group and the 60+ year age group had 1.69 and 2.62 times the risk of two-week illness compared with residents in the 15-44 year age group, respectively (P<0.05). The widowed had 1.91 times the risk of prevalence of two-week illness contrasted to singles (P<0.05); the students had 0.29 times the risk of two-week illness contrasted to the workers (P<0.05); urban residents had 0.63 times the risk of two-week illness compared with the rural (P<0.05); the widowed had 2.37 times the risk of incidence of two-week illness compared with singles (P<0.05).@*CONCLUSION@#The majority of health service needs of residents of four counties is generated by three diseases: respiratory diseases, digestive diseases, and musculoskeletal diseases. Relatively, rural residents, the elderly, employed persons and the widowed have higher health service needs than others and deserve specific attention.