RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: To evaluate the prognostic factors of seizure recurrence in newly diagnosed epilepsy at 1 year follow up. METHODS: From the IUED (Inje University Epilepsy Database) we retrieved the epilepsy patients who had never before taken any antiepileptics (AED) and were followed up for 1 year. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records with special attention to : a) age of onset, b) history of antecedents, c) seizure frequency before starting AED, d) abnormal neurological examination, e) MRI findings, f) EEG findings, g) epileptic syndrome classification. We defined seizure recurrence as any seizure occurring during the 1 year evaluation follow up except during the AED titra-tion period, having only an aura and being in poor compliance. We analyzed the prognostic factors that could reliably predict the seizure recurrence at 1 year follow up. RESULTS: We found 104 patients (64 male, 40 female) who met the inclusion criteria. The mean age of onset was 23.7 years. Of 104 patients 19 had generalized epilepsy, 82 had partial epilepsy and 3 had unclassified epilepsy. Thirteen percent (13/104) developed seizure recurrence at the 1 year follow up. Significant univariate associations were noted between seizure recurrence and these factors: presence of antecedents [odds ratio (OR) 4.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-18.5 ], post-encephalitic epilepsy (OR 7.7; 95% CI 2.1 ~ 28), and abnormal neurological examination(OR 14.6; 95% CI 3.9-55). With multivariate logistic regression, the independent predictor of seizure recurrence was the abnormal neurological examination (OR 9.7; 95% CI 2.4 ~ 39.4). CONCLUSIONS: The chance of developing a seizure recurrence at the 1 year follow up was 13 percent and the prognostic factors were the presence of antecedents, post-encephalitic epilepsy and an abnormal neurological examination.