RESUMEN
Objective:To investigate the potential of the antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) renal risk score (ARRS) in predicting the prognosis of children with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN).Methods:Laboratory testing, renal pathology results, treatment and prognosis of 61 children with AAGN diagnosed by renal biopsy from June 2007 to May 2022 in General Hospital of Eastern Theater Command were retrospectively analyzed.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the overall and renal survival of children with AAGN, and risk factors of progression to end stage renal disease (ESRD) were analyzed by Cox regression analysis. Results:Among the 61 children with AAGN, there were 14 males and 47 females with the age of (15.65±3.74) years.According to ARRS, AAGN children were assigned into low-risk group (27 cases), medium-risk group (21 cases) and high-risk group (13 cases). During a median follow-up duration of 46.36 (14.58, 95.62) months, the number of ESRD cases in the high-risk group (9 cases) was significantly higher than that of low-risk group (2 cases) and medium-risk group (3 cases) ( χ2=13.079, P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that AAGN children in the high-risk group had the worst renal prognosis ( χ2=5.796, P=0.016), while no significant difference was detected in the overall survival among the 3 groups ( χ2=2.883, P=0.237). Multivariate Cox regression showed that estimate glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)≤15 mL/(min·1.73 m 2) ( HR=9.574, 95% CI: 4.205-25.187, P=0.015) and ARRS ( HR=2.115, 95% CI: 1.206-4.174, P=0.012) were independent risk factors for children with AAGN progress to ESRD.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve of ARRS for predicting the risk of progressing to ESRD in AAGN children was 0.880 (95% CI: 0.759-1.000), and the optimal cutoff value of ARRS was 5.50, with the sensitivity and specificity of 85.71% and 82.98%, respectively. Conclusions:ARRS was an independent risk factor for children with AAGN progress to ESRD, which had a predictive value for the progression of AAGN to ESRD.