Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Tendencias y factores asociados al aumento de casos de dengue en Cochabamba: un estudio longitudinal 2019-2024 / Tendências e Fatores Associados ao Aumento de Casos de Dengue em Cochabamba: um Estudo Longitudinal 2019-2024 / Trends and Factors Associated with the Increase in Dengue Cases in Cochabamba: a Longitudinal Study 2019-2024

Introducción: el dengue, transmitido por el mosquito Aedes aegypti, es un problema de salud pública global creciente, especialmente en Cochabamba, donde factores climáticos y urbanización favorecen su proliferación. Entre 2020 y 2023, los casos aumentaron alarmantemente, subrayando la necesidad de vigilancia y prevención. Este estudio analizará las tendencias de 2019 a 2024, relacionando incidencia y lluvias. Metodología: este estudio cuantitativo, longitudinal y retrospectivo analizó las tendencias de casos sospechosos de dengue en Cochabamba de 2019 a 2024. Utilizó datos del formulario 302 del SNIS Bolivia, abarcando períodos epidemiológicos y de lluvia. Se realizó análisis descriptivo con SPSS y comparación con estudios previos para validar resultados y formular políticas de salud. Resultados: los datos semanales de dengue en Cochabamba, divididos en períodos inter-epidémicos y de lluvias, muestran un aumento significativo de casos en 2023-2024 (13,940 casos) comparado con años anteriores. Los picos más altos se observan durante el final del período de lluvias, especialmente en la semana 21 de 2023-2024, destacando la estacionalidad de la enfermedad. Discusión: el análisis de los casos sospechosos de dengue en Cochabamba (2019-2024) muestra un drástico aumento en 2023-2024, con 13,940 casos. Este incremento puede estar influenciado por el cambio climático, crecimiento urbano y variaciones en vigilancia epidemiológica. Los picos se concentran durante la temporada de lluvias, subrayando la necesidad de fortalecer medidas de control y prevención.

Introduction: dengue, transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is a growing global public health problem, particularly in Cochabamba, where climatic factors and urbanization favor its proliferation. Between 2020 and 2023, cases increased alarmingly, underscoring the need for surveillance and prevention. This study will analyze trends from 2019 to 2024, correlating incidence with rainfall. Methodology: this quantitative, longitudinal, and retrospective study analyzed trends in suspected dengue cases in Cochabamba from 2019 to 2024. It used data from Form 302 of the SNIS Bolivia, covering epidemiological and rainy periods. Descriptive analysis was performed with SPSS and compared with previous studies to validate results and formulate health policies. Results: weekly dengue data in Cochabamba, divided into inter-epidemic and rainy periods, show a significant increase in cases in 2023­2024 (13,940 cases) compared to previous years. The highest peaks are observed during the end of the rainy period, especially in week 21 of 2023-2024, highlighting the seasonality of the disease. Discussion: the analysis of suspected dengue cases in Cochabamba (2019-2024) shows a drastic increase in 2023­2024, with 13,940 cases. This increase may be influenced by climate change, urban growth, and variations in epidemiological surveillance. The peaks are concentrated in the rainy season, emphasizing the need to strengthen control and prevention measures.

Introdução: a dengue, transmitida pelo mosquito Aedes aegypti, é um crescente problema de saúde pública global, especialmente em Cochabamba, onde fatores climáticos e urbanização favorecem sua proliferação. Entre 2020 e 2023, os casos aumentaram alarmantemente, sublinhando a necessidade de vigilância e prevenção. Este estudo analisará as tendências de 2019 a 2024, correlacionando incidência e chuvas. Metodologia: este estudo quantitativo, longitudinal e retrospectivo analisou as tendências de casos suspeitos de dengue em Cochabamba de 2019 a 2024. Utilizou dados do formulário 302 do SNIS Bolívia, abrangendo períodos epidemiológicos e de chuva. Foi realizada análise descritiva com SPSS e comparação com estudos anteriores para validar os resultados e formular políticas de saúde. Resultados: os dados semanais de dengue em Cochabamba, divididos em períodos inter-epidêmicos e de chuvas, mostram um aumento significativo de casos em 2023-2024 (13.940 casos) em comparação com anos anteriores. Os picos mais altos são observados durante o final do período de chuvas, especialmente na semana 21 de 2023-2024, destacando a sazonalidade da doença. Discussão: A análise dos casos suspeitos de dengue em Cochabamba (2019-2024) mostra um aumento drástico em 2023-2024, com 13.940 casos. Este aumento pode estar influenciado pelas mudanças climáticas, crescimento urbano e variações na vigilância epidemiológica. Os picos se concentram durante a temporada de chuvas, sublinhando a necessidade de fortalecer as medidas de controle e prevenção

Clima organizacional y gestión de la calidad en la Universidad Mayor de San Andrés Caso: División de títulos y diplomas / Organizational climate and quality management at the Major University of San Andrés Case: Division of degrees and diplomas / Gestão do clima organizacional e da qualidade na principal Universidade de San Andrés Caso: Divisão de graus e diplomas

El propósito del trabajo fue determinar la relación existente entre el clima organizacional y la gestión de la calidad en la División de Títulos y Diplomas (DTD), unidad administrativa de la Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), institución pública y autónoma, responsable de la formación académica profesional, investigativa y social en la ciudad de La Paz. Para ello se empleó una metodología cuantitativa y un diseño correlacional transaccional; se elaboraron tres escalas que fueron validadas y confiabilizadas para luego ser aplicadas a funcionarios y usuarios de la DTD (seleccionados a través de muestras probabilísticas simples y censal); se contó también con una guía de entrevistas. Los resultados arrojan que en la DTD se cuenta con un clima organizacional participativo en el que resaltan el liderazgo, el trabajo en equipo y una visión positiva sobre sueldos y prestaciones recibidas; como debilidades resaltan el ambiente físico de trabajo, el diseño de puestos de trabajo y el desarrollo de carrera. La certificación en gestión de calidad es la mayor fortaleza a lo que se suma la orientación al cliente; la debilidad en gestión de calidad está centrada en la planificación. Finalmente se determinó que, si bien ambas variables están conectadas, el comportamiento de una no obedece exclusivamente al comportamiento de la otra, por lo que se infiere que existen otras variables que inciden en ellas, entre estas el compromiso, la normativa general institucional y el trato mismo que dispensa el usuario al funcionario.

The purpose of the work was to determine the relationship between the organizational climate and quality management in the Degrees and Diplomas Division (DTD), an administrative unit of the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), a public and autonomous institution, responsible for professional, investigative and social academic training in the city of La Paz. For this, a quantitative methodology and a transactional correlational design were used; Three scales were developed that were validated and made reliable and then applied to officials and users of the DTD (selected through simple probabilistic samples and census); There was also an interview guide. The results show that the DTD has a participatory organizational climate in which leadership, teamwork and a positive vision of salaries and benefits received stand out; as weaknesses they highlight the physical work environment, job design and career development. Certification in quality management is the greatest strength to which customer orientation is added; the weakness in quality management is focused on planning. Finally, it will be concluded that, although both variables are connected, the behavior of one does not obey exclusively to the behavior of the other, so it is inferred that there are other variables that affect them, among them the commitment, the general institutional regulations and the same treatment that dispenses the user to the officer.

O objetivo do trabalho foi determinar a relação entre o clima organizacional e a gestão da qualidade na Divisão de Graus e Diplomas (DTD), unidade administrativa da Universidade Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), instituição pública e autônoma, responsável pela gestão profissional, formação acadêmica investigativa e social na cidade de La Paz. Para tanto, utilizou-se uma metodologia quantitativa e um desenho correlacional transacional; foram desenvolvidas três escalas que foram validadas e tornadas confiáveis ​​e depois aplicadas a funcionários e usuários da DTD (selecionados através de amostras probabilísticas simples e censo); havia também um guia de entrevista. Os resultados mostram que o DTD possui um clima organizacional participativo em que se destacam a liderança, o trabalho em equipe e uma visão positiva dos salários e benefícios recebidos; os pontos fracos incluem o ambiente físico de trabalho, a concepção do trabalho e o desenvolvimento da carreira. A certificação em gestão da qualidade é o maior ponto forte ao qual se soma a orientação para o cliente; A fraqueza na gestão da qualidade está focada no planejamento. Por fim, determinou-se que, embora ambos ases variáveis estejam conectadas, o comportamento de uma não obedece exclusivamente ao comportamento da outra, pelo que se infere que existem outras variáveis que as afetam, incluindo o comprometimento, as regulamentações institucionais gerais e o mesmo tratamento que o usuário dá ao funcionário.

Relatório Lancet Countdown South America 2023 - saúde e mudanças climáticas: confie na ciência. Agora que sabemos, devemos agir / The 2023 South America report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: trust the science. Now that we know, we must act

O Relatório Lancet Countdown tem feito importantes contribuições ao denunciar os principais agravos à saúde ambiental, graças à ação antropogênica, cada vez mais intensa. O desflorestamento, os incêndios florestais, cada vez mais incontroláveis, a seca, o consumo de combustíveis fósseis, o uso de energia não renovável, propiciam o aparecimento de alterações climáticas caracterizadas por ondas de calor, tempestades cada vez mais intensas, inundações e o consequente comprometimento da saúde dos humanos. A versão Lancet Countdown South America apresenta de forma clara e chocante as alterações no continente e faz chamamento para que essas alterações sejam bloqueadas, pois ainda há tempo.

The Lancet Countdown Report has made significant contributions by exposing the main impacts on environmental health caused primarily by increasingly intense anthropogenic action. Deforestation, increasingly uncontrollable forest fires, drought, fossil fuels, and nonrenewable energy contribute to the onset of climate change. This change is characterized by heat waves, increasingly intense storms, and floods that, consequently, compromise human health. The South America report of The Lancet Countdown highlights the alarming changes occurring in the continent and urges action to stop these changes while there is still time.

Los cambios climáticos: ¿pueden afectar en epilepsia? Revisión del tema con presentación de 2 casos clínicos / Climate change: can it affect epilepsy? Review of the topic with presentation of 2 clinical cases

Muchas enfermedades neurológicas son condiciones crónicas complejas influenciadas en muchos niveles por cambios en el medio ambiente. El cambio climático (CC) se refiere a la gama más amplia de cambios locales, regionales y globales en los patrones climáticos promedio, impulsados principalmente, en los últimos 100 años, por actividades antropogénicas. Diversas variables climáticas se asocian con una mayor frecuencia de convulsiones en personas con epilepsia. Es probable que los riesgos se vean modificados por muchos factores, que van desde la variación genética individual y la función del canal dependiente de la temperatura, hasta la calidad de la vivienda y las cadenas de suministro globales. Los diferentes tipos de epilepsia parecen tener una distinta susceptibilidad a las influencias estacionales. El aumento de la temperatura corporal, ya sea en el contexto de la fiebre o no, tiene un papel crítico en el umbral convulsivo. Es probable que los vínculos entre el cambio climático y la epilepsia sean multifactoriales, complejos y, a menudo, indirectos, lo que dificulta las predicciones. Actualmente necesitamos más datos sobre los posibles riesgos en enfermedades; entre ellas la epilepsia. Se presentan 2 casos clínicos que refieren cambios en la frecuencia de sus crisis en relación a las altas temperaturas registradas.

Many neurological diseases are complex chronic conditions influenced on many levels by changes in the environment. Climate change refers to the widest range of local, regional, and global changes in average weather patterns, driven primarily, over the past 100 years, by anthropogenic activities. Various climatic variables are associated with an increased frequency of seizures in people with epilepsy. Risks are likely to be modified by many factors, ranging from individual genetic variation and temperature-dependent channel function, to housing quality and global supply chains. Different types of epilepsy appear to have different susceptibility to seasonal influences. Increased body temperature, whether in the context of fever or not, plays a critical role in the seizure threshold. The links between climate change and epilepsy are likely to be multifactorial, complex, and often indirect, making predictions difficult. We currently need more data on the possible risks of disease; among them epilepsy. We present 2 clinical cases that refer to changes in the frequency of their seizures in relation to the high temperatures recorded.

Heat waves in the Colombian Caribbean: A public health problem?

A popular belief states that if frog is submerged in a container and gradually heats it up, it will try to adapt until it dies; this is probably the situation faced by more and more human populations. As stated by thousands of scientists, academics, and researchers worldwide, the planet's warming is directly related to climate change.

Correlation Analysis between Hospitalization for Severe Asthma in Adults and Climate Change in a Hospital in Dalian / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the correlation between hospitalization for severe asthma and climate change among adult residents in Dalian. Methods Clinical data of asthma inpatients in Dalian First Affiliated Hospital from January to December 2022 were collected, and assigned into severe asthma group and non-severe asthma group according to the diagnostic criteria of severe asthma. Spirometer was used for the measurement of (forced expiratory volume in the first second , FEV1) and (forced vital capacity , FVC), and the serum white blood cell count and C-reactive protein level were measured by biochemical analyzer. Meantime, meteorological parameters including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and duration of sunshine hours were also collected. Then Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to discuss the correlation between the number of hospitalizations for severe asthma and meteorological parameters. Of the 260 asthma patients, 153 had severe asthma and 107 had non-severe asthma. There were 85 male and 68 female patients with severe asthma. The onset age distribution of severe asthma was concentrated at 60-79 years old, with 94 cases, followed by 50-59 years old (n=26). The peak time of onset in each year was from March to May, with 14, 19 and 16 cases, respectively. The secondary peak was from November to January, with 15, 18 and 13 cases, and there were fewer hospital admissions from June to October. FEV1 and FEV1/FVC values were smaller in severe asthma group than in non-severe asthma group, while the white blood cell count and C-reactive protein levels were higher than those in non severe asthma group (P0.05), but was negatively correlated with average temperature and humidity (P<0.05). Conclusion The number of hospital admissions for severe asthma in Dalian varies with the seasons, therefore, early and active interventions are of great value in preventing severe asthma in months with high variations in temperature and humidity.

Evaluation of Relationship of Pueraria lobata Quality from Different Producing Areas Based on "Climate Factor-component Content-antioxidant Capacity" / 中国实验方剂学杂志

ObjectiveThe correlation of Pueraria lobata producing areas， climate factors， total flavonoids of P. lobata， polysaccharide content of P. lobata， and antioxidant activity of P.lobata for medicinal application was analyzed， and the relationship between climate factors and the formation of P. lobata quality was evaluated. MethodThe scavenging rates of 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl radical 2,2-diphenyl-1-(2,4,6-trinitrophenyl)hydrazyl（DPPH） and 2, 2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid)（ABTS） radicals by total flavonoids and polysaccharides of P. lobata were detected， and the correlation between the contents of each component and the information of producing areas and climate factors was analyzed. ResultThe ABTS+ scavenging rate by total flavonoids of P.lobata was negatively correlated with altitude （P<0.05） and positively correlated with annual sunshine hours （P<0.05）. The altitude was positively correlated with the total flavonoid content， while the annual sunshine hours were negatively correlated with the total flavonoid content. There was a negative correlation between total flavonoid content and ABTS+ scavenging rate by total flavonoids. In other words， lower altitude and longer annual sunshine hours indicated lower total flavonoid content and higher ABTS+ scavenging rate by total flavonoids. The ABTS+ scavenging rate by polysaccharides of P. lobata was negatively correlated with the frost-free period （P<0.05） and the mean temperature in July （P<0.01）. There was a positive correlation between the polysaccharide content of P. lobata and the frost-free period. The mean temperature in July was positively correlated with the polysaccharide content of P. lobata （P<0.05）. The polysaccharide content of P. lobata was negatively correlated with the ABTS+ scavenging rate by polysaccharides of P. lobata. In other words， a shorter frost-free period in the producing area and lower mean temperature in July indicated lower polysaccharide content of P. lobata and higher ABTS+ scavenging rate by polysaccharides of P. lobata. The mean temperature in July was significantly correlated with the contents of total flavonoids and polysaccharides in P. lobata samples （P<0.05）. The lower mean temperature in July was often accompanied by lower total flavonoid content of P. lobata， lower polysaccharide content of Pueraria lobata， and stronger antioxidant activity of P. lobata samples. ConclusionThe ability of P. lobata to remove ABTS+ is stronger than that of DPPH+. There is a significant correlation between climate factors， content， and antioxidant capacity in each producing area. Further research on the internal law of the formation of medicinal active components of P. lobata induced by core climate factors will provide a scientific basis for revealing the formation mechanism of genuine P. lobata and the subsequent control of P. lobata quality according to the environment of producing areas.

Onset time distribution and influential factors in patients with acute myocardial infarction with different body mass index levels / 中国基层医药

Objective:To investigate the onset time distribution and influential factors in patients with acute myocardial infarction (ACI) with different body mass index (BMI) levels.Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted to collect clinical data from 1 000 patients with AMI who received treatment at Heilongjiang Provincial Hospital from January 2016 to November 2022. The patients were divided into groups based on different BMI levels: < 18.5 kg/m 2 group ( n = 49), 18.5-24 kg/m 2 group ( n = 369), > 24-28 kg/m 2 group ( n = 338), and > 28 kg/m 2 group ( n = 244). The incidence of AMI was analyzed among patients with different BMI levels as per diurnal variation, seasonality, and weekday. Results:A total of 1 000 patients were included in this study, including 648 men and 352 women. The mean age of these patients was 65 years (range 56-74 years). The median body mass was 70 kg (range 60-76 kg), the median height was 1.69 m (range 1.60-1.72 m), and the median BMI was 24.49 kg/m 2 (range 22.22-26.79 kg/m 2). The onset time of AMI differed significantly among patients with different BMI levels in terms of the period from 0:00 to 5:59, winter, and Wednesday ( P = 0.047, 0.029, 0.005). Among all samples, the number of patients with a BMI of 18.5-24 kg/m 2 was the highest, reaching 369 cases. Conclusion:The incidence of AMI in patients with different BMI levels exhibits a regular distribution as per diurnal variation, seasonality, and weekday.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), Willmotts index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan / Previsão de produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelos inteligentes de dados no Paquistão

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

The risk of vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi remains high in the State of Paraná

BACKGROUND Monitoring and analysing the infection rates of the vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, that causes Chagas disease, helps assess the risk of transmission. OBJECTIVES A study was carried out on triatomine in the State of Paraná, Brazil, between 2012 and 2021 and a comparison was made with a previous study. This was done to assess the risk of disease transmission. METHODS Ecological niche models based on climate and landscape variables were developed to predict habitat suitability for the vectors as a proxy for risk of occurrence. FINDINGS A total of 1,750 specimens of triatomines were recorded, of which six species were identified. The overall infection rate was 22.7%. The areas with the highest risk transmission of T. cruzi are consistent with previous predictions in municipalities. New data shows that climate models are more accurate than landscape models. This is likely because climate suitability was higher in the previous period. MAIN CONCLUSION Regardless of uneven sampling and potential biases, risk remains high due to the wide presence of infected vectors and high environmental suitability for vector species throughout the state and, therefore, improvements in public policies aimed at wide dissemination of knowledge about the disease are recommended to ensure the State remains free of Chagas disease.

Morphometry of the wings of Anopheles aquasalis in simulated scenarios of climate change

ABSTRACT Background: Climate change has significant implications on ecosystems. We verified the effects of climate change on the malaria vector Anopheles aquasalis using simulated climate change scenarios (SSCCs). Methods: An experimental model was designed for SSCCs, which composed of air-conditioned 25 m3 rooms. Results: The wing size was significantly different between SSCCs. A colony of Anopheles aquasalis could not be established in extreme scenarios. Conclusions: Increases in temperature and CO2 in the atmosphere may modify the global epidemiology of malaria, marking its emergence in currently malaria-free areas.

Relação entre temperatura do ar e incidência de dengue: estudo de séries temporais em Minas Gerais, Brasil (2010-2019) / Relationship between air temperature and dengue incidence: time series study in Minas Gerais, Brazil (2010-2019) / Relación entre la temperatura del aire y la incidencia del dengue: estudio de series temporales en Minas Gerais, Brasil (2010-2019)

Resumo A temperatura do ar é um fator climático que afeta a incidência da dengue, com efeitos variando conforme o tempo e o espaço. Investigamos a relação entre a temperatura mínima do ar e a incidência da doença em Minas Gerais, Brasil, e avaliamos a influência de variáveis socioeconômicas e geográficas nessa relação, calculando-se o risco relativo (RR). Este é um estudo de série temporal com análise conduzida em três etapas distintas: modelagem por uso de distributed lag non-linear model (modelos não-lineares distributivos com defasagem), metanálise dos modelos obtidos e metarregressão com dados geográficos e socioeconômicos. A temperatura mínima foi um fator de proteção quando em temperaturas frias extremas (RR = 0,65; IC95%: 0,56-0,76) e moderadas (RR = 0,71; IC95%: 0,64-0,79) e fator de risco em temperaturas de calor moderado (RR = 1,15; IC95%: 1,07-1,24), mas não em extremo (RR = 1,1; IC95%: 0,99-1,22). A heterogeneidade dos modelos foi elevada (I2 = 60%) e essa medida não foi alterada em metarregressão. Temperaturas frias moderadas e extremas causam efeito protetivo, enquanto moderadas quentes aumentam o risco. No entanto, a temperatura mínima do ar não explica nem a variabilidade da região, nem mesmo com as outras variáveis em metarregressão.

Abstract Air temperature is a climatic factor that affects the incidence of dengue, with effects varying according to time and space. We investigated the relationship between minimum air temperature and dengue incidence in Minas Gerais, Brazil, and evaluated the influence of socioeconomic and geographic variables on this relationship. This is a time series study with analysis conducted in three distinct stages: modeling using a distributed lag non-linear model, meta-analysis of models obtained, and meta-regression with geographic and socioeconomic data. Minimum temperature was a protective factor at extreme cold temperatures (RR = 0.65; 95%CI: 0.56-0.76) and moderate cold temperatures (RR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.64-0.79), and a risk factor at moderate hot temperatures (RR = 1.15; 95%CI: 1.07-1.24), but not at extreme hot temperatures (RR = 1.1; 95%CI: 0.99-1.22). Heterogeneity of the models was high (I2 = 60%), which was also observed in meta-regression. Moderate and extreme cold temperatures have a protective effect, while moderate hot temperatures increase the risk. However, minimum air temperature does not explain the variability in the region, not even with the other variables in meta-regression.

Resumen La temperatura del aire es un factor climático que afecta la incidencia del dengue, con efectos que varían según el tiempo y el territorio. Investigamos la relación entre la temperatura mínima del aire y la incidencia de la enfermedad en Minas Gerais, Brasil, y evaluamos la influencia de variables socioeconómicas y geográficas en esta relación. Se trata de un estudio de serie temporal cuyo análisis se realiza en tres etapas distintas: modelación mediante el uso de distributed lag non-linear model (modelos distributivos no lineales con retraso), metaanálisis de los modelos obtenidos y metarregresión con datos geográficos y socioeconómicos. La temperatura mínima fue un factor de protección ante temperaturas extremadamente frías (RR = 0,65; IC95%: 0,56-0,76) y moderadas (RR = 0,71; IC95%: 0,64-0,79) y factor de riesgo en temperaturas de calor moderado (RR = 1,15; IC95%: 1,07-1,24), pero no en extremo (RR = 1,1; IC95%: 0,99-1,22). La heterogeneidad de los modelos fue alta (I2 = 60%), y esta medida no se modificó en la metarregresión. Las temperaturas frías moderadas y extremas tienen un efecto protector, mientras que las temperaturas moderadamente altas aumentan el riesgo. Sin embargo, la temperatura mínima del aire no explica la variabilidad de la región, ni siquiera con las demás variables en metarregresión.

Contribuições dos Saberes Indígenas para a Reterritorialização da Psicologia Social / Contributions of Indigenous Knowledge to the Reterritorialization of Social Psychology

Objetivo Este artigo propõe repensar a psicologia social a partir dos saberes indígenas, considerando que eles interrogam as políticas de subjetivação derivadas da concepção binária de natureza e cultura que fundamenta a modernidade. Método Trata-se de um artigo teórico que analisa as contribuições indígenas para a descolonização do pensamento psicológico, considerando o contexto das mudanças climáticas. É problematizada a abrangência do que se entende como social, assim como a quem a subjetividade é atribuída ou não na psicologia. Resultados A psicologia reproduz as dicotomias ocidentais ao basear-se numa natureza fixa, externa a si, cujo social é concebido a partir do excepcionalismo humano. Para os povos que compreendem a vida como efeito de relacionalidades entre seres humanos e não-humanos, essas categorias não fazem o menor sentido. Conclusão A complexidade dos saberes e o protagonismo indígena frente às lutas por terra e território num contexto de mudanças climáticas apontam para a urgência de reterritorialização da psicologia social.

Objective This article proposes to rethink social psychology based on indigenous knowledge, considering that it interrogates the policies of subjectivation derived from the binary conception of nature and culture that underpins modernity. Method This is a theoretical article that analyzes indigenous contributions to the decoloniza-tion of psychological thought, considering the context of climate change. The scope of what is understood as social is problematized, as well as to whom subjectivity is attributed or not in psychology. Results Psychology reproduces Western dichotomies by being based on a fixed nature, ex-ternal to itself, whose social nature is conceived based on human exceptionalism. For people who understand life as the effect of relationalities between human and non-human beings, these categories do not make any sense. Conclusion The complexity of knowledge and indigenous protagonism in the fight for land and territory in a context of climate change point to the urgency of reterritorializing social psychology.

Proceso de vigilancia e inteligencia para el posgrado en salud

Introducción: La vigilancia y la inteligencia son actividades estratégicas para la investigación y el posgrado con el fin de detectar nuevas áreas de investigación y de servicios de formación, a partir de una gestión eficiente de la información, que contribuye a tomar decisiones eficaces y mejorar el desempeño. Objetivo: Implementar un proceso de vigilancia e inteligencia para el posgrado en salud. Desarrollo: El proceso realizado se basó en la norma cubana NC 1308:2019 Gestión de la I+D+i. Sistema de Vigilancia e inteligencia. Se muestra su aplicación para la actualización del curso Gestión de la Calidad en Salud, a partir de incorporar un tema relacionado con el clima organizacional, al abordar el factor humano como garante de la calidad de los servicios de salud. Conclusiones: Los procesos de vigilancia e inteligencia son transversales a todas las áreas y actividades relacionadas con la gestión de la calidad en salud, que requieren información y conocimiento para la toma de decisiones estratégicas y operativas, y la realización de las acciones consiguientes. La aplicación de un proceso sistemático de vigilancia e inteligencia facilita el desarrollo de un tema de formación en clima organizacional, con vistas a la mejora del servicio de posgrado orientado a la salud.

Introduction: Surveillance and intelligence are strategic activities for research and postgraduate, aimed at detecting new research and training services areas, based on efficient information management, which contributes to making effective decisions and improving performance. Objective: To implement a surveillance and intelligence process for health postgraduate studies. Development: The realized process was based on the Cuban standard NC 1308:2019 Gestión de la I+D+i. Sistema de Vigilancia e inteligencia [Management of Research +Development+ innovation. Surveillance and Intelligence System]. Its application is shown in view of updating a course under the topic of quality management in health, from incorporating a topic related to the organizational climate, by addressing the human factor as a guarantor of quality in health services. Conclusions: Surveillance and intelligence processes are cross-sectional to all areas and activities related to quality management in health, requiring information and knowledge for strategic and operational decision making, as well as the implementation of consequent actions. The application of a systematic process of surveillance and intelligence facilitates the development of a training topic in organizational climate, with a view to improving the health-oriented postgraduate service.