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Objective: To determine whether permutation scan statistics was more efficient in finding prospective spatial-temporal outbreaks for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) or for malaria in Fars province, Iran in 2016. Methods: Using time-series data including 29 177 CL cases recorded during 2010-2015 and 357 malaria cases recorded during 2010-2015, CL and malaria cases were predicted in 2016. Predicted cases were used to verify if they followed uniform distribution over time and space using space-time analysis. To testify the uniformity of distributions, permutation scan statistics was applied prospectively to detect statistically significant and non-significant outbreaks. Finally, the findings were compared to determine whether permutation scan statistics worked better for CL or for malaria in the area. Prospective permutation scan modeling was performed using SatScan software. Results: A total of 5 359 CL and 23 malaria cases were predicted in 2016 using time-series models. Applied time-series models were well-fitted regarding auto correlation function, partial auto correlation function sample/model, and residual analysis criteria (P
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Objective: To determine whether permutation scan statistics was more efficient in finding prospective spatial-temporal outbreaks for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) or for malaria in Fars province, Iran in 2016.Methods: Using time-series data including 29177 CL cases recorded during 2010-2015 and 357 malaria cases recorded during 2010-2015, CL and malaria cases were predicted in 2016. Predicted cases were used to verify if they followed uniform distribution over time and space using space-time analysis. To testify the uniformity of distributions, permutation scan statistics was applied prospectively to detect statistically significant and non-significant outbreaks. Finally, the findings were compared to determine whether permutation scan statistics worked better for CL or for malaria in the area. Prospective permutation scan modeling was performed using SatScan software.Results: A total of 5359 CL and 23 malaria cases were predicted in 2016 using time-series models. Applied time-series models were well-fitted regarding auto correlation function, partial auto correlation function sample/model, and residual analysis criteria (Pv was set to 0.1). The results indicated two significant prospective spatial-temporal outbreaks for CL (P<0.5) including Most Likely Clusters, and one non-significant outbreak for malaria (P>0.5) in the area.Conclusions: Both CL and malaria follow a space-time trend in the area, but prospective permutation scan modeling works better for detecting CL spatial-temporal outbreaks. It is not far away from expectation since clusters are defined as accumulation of cases in specified times and places. Although this method seems to work better with finding the outbreaks of a high-frequency disease;i.e., CL, it is able to find non-significant outbreaks. This is clinically important for both high- and low-frequency infections;i.e., CL and malaria.
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Objective: To describe the profile and geographical distribution of reported cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the province of Hail, Saudi Arabia from 2010 to 2013. Methods: Human data were collected from the dermatology service of both King Khaled and General Hail hospitals. Results: A total of 483 confirmed CL cases were investigated. Cutaneous leishmaniasis follows a seasonal distribution related to the activity of the phlebotomine sand fly fauna. Both saudi and non saudi patients were almost equally infected. The number of reported cases of CL in men was higher than that in females. The frequency of CL was asoociated with age and increased in teenager and adult group. By analyzing the geographical distribution, the majority of Hail districts were affected with this disease. However it is more prevalent in Hail city. Conclusions: The lack of data concerning the parasite, the sand fly fauna and the existing transmission cycles in Hail province make difficult to interpret the reported results and to follow up the spatio-temporal evolution of the disease.
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OBJECTIVE@#To describe the profile and geographical distribution of reported cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the province of Hail, Saudi Arabia from 2010 to 2013.@*METHODS@#Human data were collected from the dermatology service of both King Khaled and General Hail hospitals.@*RESULTS@#A total of 483 confirmed CL cases were investigated. Cutaneous leishmaniasis follows a seasonal distribution related to the activity of the phlebotomine sand fly fauna. Both saudi and non saudi patients were almost equally infected. The number of reported cases of CL in men was higher than that in females. The frequency of CL was asoociated with age and increased in teenager and adult group. By analyzing the geographical distribution, the majority of Hail districts were affected with this disease. However it is more prevalent in Hail city.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The lack of data concerning the parasite, the sand fly fauna and the existing transmission cycles in Hail province make difficult to interpret the reported results and to follow up the spatio-temporal evolution of the disease.
RESUMEN
Objective: To describe the profile and geographical distribution of reported cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in the province of Hail, Saudi Arabia from 2010 to 2013. Methods:Human data were collected from the dermatology service of both King Khaled and General Hail hospitals. Results: A total of 483 confirmed CL cases were investigated. Cutaneous leishmaniasis follows a seasonal distribution related to the activity of the phlebotomine sand fly fauna. Both saudi and non saudi patients were almost equally infected. The number of reported cases of CL in men was higher than that in females. The frequency of CL was asoociated with age and increased in teenager and adult group. By analyzing the geographical distribution, the majority of Hail districts were affected with this disease. However it is more prevalent in Hail city. Conclusions: The lack of data concerning the parasite, the sand fly fauna and the existing transmission cycles in Hail province make difficult to interpret the reported results and to follow up the spatio-temporal evolution of the disease.