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Objective:To measure the demand of physicians in 2020-2035 period by constructing an unequal weight combination forecasting model, and to provide scientific reference for health manpower planning.Methods:This study called into play the trend extrapolation method, human/population ratio method and health service demand method to preliminarily predict the demand of physicians in 2020-2035, followed by Delphi method to carry out unequal weight combination of the results of these three methods. Hence the physicians demand in 2020-2035 in China was calculated.Results:Based on the unequal weight combination forecasting model, the physicians demand of the period in China was estimated to increase from 2.64 people / 1 000 population to 3.67 people / 1 000 population, and the physicians demand to gradually increase at a growth rate in gradual slowdown.Conclusions:This research used the unequal weight combination forecast model, based on the service demand and the historical situation. It is suggested that relevant policies of medical education and specialists division be made based on both the demand and the factors affecting the supply and demand balance of physicians.
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Objective To measure and analyze the staffing standards of family doctor interdisciplinary team by means of the WHO workload indicator of staffing need (WISN)method,for reference of the government in building family doctor interdisciplinary teams.Methods 150 community health centers in 16 provinces were selected.The related data from 150 centers were collected to analyze the population served by each family doctor,and the staffing standards of family doctor interdisciplinary team by means of the WHO workload indicator of staffing need(WISN)method.Results There were 10 721 community health professionals in the sample centers which provide 132.14 million standard equivalents of service to the public.1 9 6 1 6 community health professionals were needed to ensure the quality of service and no extra workload after work for professionals.Averagely,each family doctor can serve 1 558 residents,who needs 1.3~1.5 nurses or public health workers.Conclusions A huge gap was found for community health professionals.The population served by each family doctor should be lowered compared to the governmental requirement and more nurses should be introduced to the family doctor interdisciplinary team.