Excess of deaths during COVID-19 pandemic in Mato Grosso, Brazil / Excesso de mortes durante a pandemia de COVID-19 em Mato Grosso, Brasil

Abstract This article aims to estimate the excess of deaths in the years 2020 and 2021 in Mato Grosso state, in the state capital and in the countryside, according to gender and age group. Data was extracted from DATASUS/Ministry of Health website for the period from 2015 to 2020 and from the website of the State Department of Health - Data Warehouse System (DW) for 2021. Non-fetal deaths by natural causes of residents in Mato Grosso were analyzed and the analyses were broken down into countryside and state capital (Cuiabá). The variables selected were age group, gender, month of occurrence, and underlying cause of death. Excess mortality was calculated using generalized additive quasi-Poisson model adjustments with correction for overdispersion. A 30% excess of deaths was identified in 2020, with the state capital recording the highest estimate, in older age groups, and between the months of July and September. In 2021, the expected number of deaths was 57% higher, with the double in the younger age groups in the countryside. The study showed different demographic profiles of excess deaths in the years 2020 and 2021 during COVID-19 pandemic and distinct patterns between countryside and state capital, suggesting inequalities that may have caused impact on different risks.

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é estimar o excesso de óbitos nos anos de 2020 e 2021 no estado de Mato Grosso, na capital do estado e no interior, segundo sexo e faixa etária. Os dados foram extraídos do site do DATASUS/Ministério da Saúde para o período de 2015 a 2020 e do site da Secretaria de Estado da Saúde - Sistema Data Warehouse (DW) para 2021. Óbitos não fetais por causas naturais de residentes no Mato Grosso foram analisados ​​e as análises foram divididas em interior e capital do estado (Cuiabá). As variáveis ​​selecionadas foram: faixa etária, sexo, mês de ocorrência e causa básica do óbito. O excesso de mortalidade foi calculado usando ajustes generalizados do modelo aditivo quase-Poisson com correção para superdispersão. Identificou-se um excesso de 30% de óbitos em 2020, com a capital do estado registrando a maior estimativa, nas faixas etárias mais avançadas, e entre os meses de julho e setembro. Em 2021, o número esperado de óbitos foi de 57% superior, sendo o dobro nas faixas etárias mais jovens do interior do estado. O estudo mostrou diferentes perfis demográficos de excesso de óbitos nos anos de 2020 e 2021 durante a pandemia de COVID-19 e padrões distintos entre interior e capital do estado, sugerindo desigualdades que podem ter impactado em diferentes riscos.

Short term effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular mortality in residents in Changping district, Beijing / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To make a quantitative evaluation on the short term effect of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter no more than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) on cumulative excess mortality rate (CER) and years of life lost (YLL) in residents in Changping district of Beijing.@*Methods@#The death data in local residents, daily mortality, meteorology data and air pollution data (PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 concentrations) in Changping from 2014 to 2017 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the age and gender specific cumulative lag effects of PM2.5 on cardiovascular CER and daily YLL in Changping.@*Results@#The effects of PM2.5 on cardiovascular CER and YLL were obvious on lag 7 days and lag 9 days, respectively, peaking on day 14, and lasting for 21 days. On lag0-21 days, for a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the population based CER of cardiovascular disease death was 0.021% (95%CI: 0.004%-0.038%), and the YLL was 1.47 (95%CI: 0.23-2.70) years. Greater PM2.5 effect were observed in males and the elderly.@*Conclusion@#PM2.5 increased the risk of cardiovascular disease death and YLL.

Analysis on cancer mortality level and change trends in Yingcheng of Hubei Province / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the level and change trends of cancer mortality in the media focused area,Yingcheng of Hubei Province,to further support the authenticity and reliability of the information from media report.Methods Use the data of the first national retrospective death survey and the third national retrospective sampling death survey to describe cancer mortality and change trends in Yingcheng of Hubei Province.Results Crude cancer mortality in Yingcheng was 148.26/100 000.In the past 30 years,cancer mortality significantly increased by 9.27 times.Among 100 000 people in the county,each year 43 cases of malignant tumor death occurred more than the national average level.A variety of malignant tumors' mortality change in the county is significantly different from those of the country,such as esophageal cancer,stomach cancer did not fall but rise;liver cancer,lung cancer,leukaemia and colorectal cancer increased 5.84 times,5.61 times,5.07 times and 17.91 times more than the national average,respectively.The excess mortality rate of stomach cancer,liver cancer,lung cancer and colorectal cancer were 15.32/100 000,16.78/100 000,8.32/100 000 and 3.98/100 000 respectively.Negative binomial distribution fitting results suggest that death of stomach cancer exists village aggregation.Conclusions The level of historical cancer mortality in Yingcheng was low,but increase quickly,presently it is on the national high-incidence level.It presents the phenomenon that a variety of malignant tumors is generally on high-incidence level and stomach cancer exists village aggregation.