Disease Burden of Esophageal Cancer Attributable to High BMI and Death Prediction in China and the United States, 1990-2019 / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze trends in the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI) in the Chinese and United States populations from 1990 to 2019 and predict deaths over the next 10 years. Methods This study used Global Burden of Disease 2019 data to obtain mortality and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) data by year, gender, and age for the disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China and the United States from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze long-term trends. Bayesian age–period–cohort analysis was used to predict age-standardized mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in 2020–2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate for esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI in China increased from 1.44/105 to 1.80/105 and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 34.17/105 to 40.79/105. From the perspective of gender, the number of deaths, DALYs, and the corresponding age-standardized rate of males in China and the United States increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of Chinese women showed a downward trend, decreasing by 21.36/105 and 29.71/105, respectively. Joinpoint analysis results revealed that the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in mortality attributable to esophageal cancer in the total population and men in China from 1990 to 2019 increased by 0.78% (95%CI: 0.71-0.84) and 1.52% (95%CI: 1.44-1.60), respectively, and that in females decreased by 0.88% (95%CI: −0.96-−0.80). AAPC in women in the United States rose at a slow rate of 0.07% (95%CI: 0.02-0.09). The burden of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to high BMI is predicted to continue to rise in China and the United States in 2020–2030. Conclusion The disease burden of esophageal cancer attributable to high BMI significantly increased in China from 1990 to 2019. The disease burden of esophageal cancer caused by high BMI in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2030.

Trends in the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To investigate the changes in distribution of Oncomelania hupensis snails in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023, so as to provide insights into formulation of O. hupensis snail surveillance programs. Methods The reports on O. hupensis snail surveillance in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 were collected, and the snail surveillance data in forestlands were extracted. The trends in the proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails, occurrence of frames with living snails and density of living snails were evaluated using a Joinpoint regression model in Songjiang District from 2009 to 2023, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Results A total of 40 sites with snails were found in forestlands in 14 administrative villages of 4 townships, Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023. A total of 39 065 frames were surveyed for snails in settings covering an area of 609 600 m2, and there were 6 084 frames with snails, covering 151 250 m2 snail habitats. A total of 22 210 snails were captured, with the highest density of 260.00 snails/0.1 m2, and 6 262 snails were dissected, with no Schistosoma japonicum infection identified in snails. The proportion of areas with snails in forestlands in total areas with snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 24.9%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest proportion seen in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2023 (both 0) and a mean proportion of 24.81%. The occurrence of frames with living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 41.5%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest occurrence in 2009 (53.81%), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and the mean occurrence of 15.57%. In addition, the density of living snails appeared a tendency towards a rise from 2009 to 2023 (APC = AAPC = 55.0%, P > 0.05); however, there were no turning points in the trend curve, with the highest density in 2023 (0.96 snails/0.1 m2), the lowest in 2011 and 2013 (both 0), and a mean density of 0.57 snails/0.1 m2. Conclusions The difficulty in O. hupensis snail control and risk of imported snails appeared a tendency towards a rise in forestlands in Songjiang District, Shanghai Municipality over years from 2009 to 2023. Supervision and assessment prior to seedling transplantation and intensified surveillance post-transplantation are recommended to reduce the risk of O. hupensis snail importation and spread.

Joinpoint regression analysis on the epidemiological trend of influenza in Nantong city, Jiangsu province in 2010 - 2022 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Nantong city, explore its changing trend, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control measures. Methods The incidence data of influenza in Nantong city from 2010 to 2022 were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistical software. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of influenza incidence. Results The annual reported incidence of influenza in Nantong city showed an exponential upward trend from 2010 to 2022 (APC=25.25, P=0.002). The annual reported incidence rate of males was higher than that of females, and the incidence trend of both showed an exponential upward trend(Male: APC=24.40, P=0.002; Female: APC=26.11, P=0.002). The seasonal index showed a unimodal distribution, with a peak from December to February of the next year, and the highest value was 2.78 in January. The average annual reported incidence in each age group showed a rapid upward trend from 0 to 7 years old (β1=16.13, P1=-44.50, P=0.037), and a low slow downward trend from 10 to 45 years old (β1=-0.20, P=0.001), and lower tailing was observed in 45-85 years group (β1=0.04, P=0.162). Conclusion The overall incidence rate of influenza in Nantong City is on the rise. Children under 7 years old are the key protected population. We should control the key season, do a good job of publicity and education, encourage vaccination,and at the same time do a good job in pathogen monitoring, timely pay attention to the situation of epidemic strains, and scientific prevention and control.

Burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2030 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030.@*METHODS@#The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model.@*RESULTS@#The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-2.58%, -2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: (-2.54%, -2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -4.92%, 95% CI: (-5.37%, -4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = -5.15%, 95% CI: (-5.64%, -4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI: (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.

Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai,China from 1973 to 2017:a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis / 肿瘤

Objective:To describe the epidemiological features and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Methods:Data on colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai was obtained through Shanghai Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System.Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent change(APC)and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the association between age,period and birth cohort and colorectal cancer. Results:A total of 105 847 cases and 60 447 deaths of colorectal cancer were diagnosed in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period.Both the number of new cases and the number of deaths showed an increasing trend.In the same period,the age-standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in urban areas of Shanghai increased significantly from 14.1/100 000 in 1973 to 27.7/100 000 in 2017,while the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 8.2/100 000 to 10.7/100 000.The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 20.4/100 000 and 11.0/100 000,respectively.With the increase of age,the age-standardized morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer showed an obvious upward trend.Taking 1993-1997 as reference,the risk of colorectal cancer in Shanghai reached the highest in 2013-2017,and the corresponding relative risk was 1.2(95％confidence interval:1.2-1.3),while the lowest was 0.9(95％confidence interval:0.8-1.0)during 1973-1977.Mortality risk,on the contrary,decreased with the increase of time.Before 1953-1957,the risk of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai increased with the increase of birth cohort time,and then showed a downward trend.There was a corresponding decline in the risk of colorectal cancer death among people born after 1957. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Shanghai showed an increasing trend from 1973 to 2017,but the prevalence trend of colorectal cancer is still different among different populations.

Temporal trends in disease burden of major human parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To analysize the temporal trends in the disease burden of major human parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, so as to provide the evidence for improving the parasitic disease control strategy in China.. Methods The disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of malaria, intestinal nematode infections, schistosomiasis, food-borne trematodiases, cysticercosis and echinococcosis in China from 1990 to 2019 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and age- and gender-specific DALYs of parasitic diseases were estimated. The temporal trends in DALYs of malaria, intestinal nematode infections, schistosomiasis, food-borne trematodiases, cysticercosis and echinococcosis were evaluated in China from 1990 to 2019 using average annual percent change (AAPC) with Joinpoint regression analysis. Results The DALYs were 643 836.42 person-years due to food-borne trematodiases, 156 853.03 person-years due to cysticercosis, 79 764.62 person-years due to schistosomiasis, 70 989.73 person-years due to intestinal nematode infections, 4 258.61 person-years due to echinococcosis and 264.86 person-years due to malaria in China in 2019, respectively. The overall DALYs of six parasitic diseases were higher among men (546 441.93 person-years) than among women (409 525.33 person-years), and were greater among adults at ages of 14 to 65 years (684 780.84 person-years) than among children at 14 years and lower (35 437.38 person-years) and the elderly at ages of 65 years and older (235 749.04 person-years). During the period from 1990 to 2019, food-borne trematodiases were the leading cause of DALYs among the six parasitic diseases, and cysticercosis shifted from the fourth leading cause in 1990 to the second leading cause of DALYs in China in 2019, while intestinal nematode infections shifted from the second leading cause in 1990 to the fourth leading cause of DALYs in 2019. The DALYs of major human parasitic diseases appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, with the fastest drop seen in DALYs due to malaria (AAPC = −19.6%, P = 0.003), followed by due to intestinal nematode infections (AAPC = −8.2%, P < 0.001) and schistosomiasis (AAPC = −3.1%, P < 0.001), and a slow decline was seen in the DALYs of food-borne trematodiases (AAPC = −1.0%, P < 0.001), while there were no significant decrease in the DALYs of echinococcosis (AAPC = −0.5%, P = 0.264) and the DALYs of cysticercosis appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC = 0.7%, P < 0.001). Conclusions The disease burden of major human parasitic diseases appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, with a high disease burden seen due to food-borne parasitic diseases, no remarkable reduction seen in echinococcosis, and a tendency towards a rise seen in cysticercosis. It is recommended to focus on echinococcosis control, and continue to consolidate the control achievements of other major human parasitic diseases in China; meanwhile, the surveillance and prevention of food-borne parasitic diseases should be reinforced.

Incidence of cancers of unknown primary origin in India and their trends during 1986–2014: A joinpoint regression analysis

Background: Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) origin is cancer in which malignant cancer cells are in the body but the site of cancer where it began is unknown. Detailed incidence and time trends of these cancers, specific to various regions in India is needed. This paper aims to summarize and report the incidence of other and unknown (O&U) cancers across India in 27 population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) and to study the trends among these cancers using joinpoint regression analysis. Methods: Data on the incidence of CUP were obtained from the published reports on 27 PBCRs of the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). A joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term trends of incidence related to CUP based on published data from PBCRs between 1986 and 2014. Annual Percent Change (APC) in incidence rate was estimated for various registries. Results: The northeast region had the highest age-adjusted rate (AAR) for both men (1.76–29.7) and women (1.99–14.68). Age-specific rate (ASR) for both men (39.8–855.7) and women (48.2–470.4) was highest in the northeast region. There is an increase in the incidence rate for all six major registries over the past decade with an exception of women in the Delhi Cancer Registry. There is a decline in incidence rate by 0.14 during 1990–2012 in the female population of the Delhi registry. Conclusion: The increasing incidence trends of CUP is a matter of concern for the healthcare professionals and researchers. There is a need for research and advanced and improved diagnostic tools for the improvement of the status of O&U cancers.

Epidemiological trends for human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 based on Joinpoint regression analysis / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To analyze the trends of human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the schistosomiasis elimination strategy in the province. Methods All data pertaining to human schistosomiasis prevalence in Hubei Province were collected from 2004 to 2018, and the trends for changes in seroprevalence, egg-positive rate and prevalence of human Schistosoma japonicum infection were analyzed using a Joinpoint regression model. Results Both of the numbers of residents seropositive and egg-positive for S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections reduced from 6.85% in 2004 to 0 in 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a reduction in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = −24.1%, P < 0.01], and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2006 [annual percent change (APC) = −35.1%, P < 0.01] and from 2006 to 2018 (APC = −22.1%, P < 0.01). The prevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline in islet (AAPC = −25.1%, P < 0.01), inner embankment (AAPC = −26.4%, P < 0.01) and hilly subtypes of schistosomiasis-endemic areas (AAPC = −32.5%, P < 0.01) of Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the prevalence all appeared a tendency towards a decline during the infection control stage (from 2004 to 2008), the transmission control stage (from 2009 to 2013) and the transmission interruption stage (from 2014 to 2018) (AAPC = −28.0%, −24.4% and −63.8%, all P values < 0.01). The seroprevalence of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = −14.5%, P < 0.01), and the trends for the reduction were both significant during the period from 2004 to 2012 (APC = −8.4%, P < 0.01) and from 2012 to 2018 (APC = −22.1%, P < 0.01). In addition, the egg-positive rate of human S. japonicum infections appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018 (AAPC = −30.6%, P < 0.05), and the trend for the reduction was significant during the period from 2007 to 2014 (APC = −15.5%, P < 0.01). Conclusions The prevalence of human schistosomiasis appeared a tendency towards a decline in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018, and the islet and inner embankment subtypes of endemic areas are a high priority for schistosomiasis control during the stage moving towards elimination in Hubei Province.