RESUMEN
ObjectiveTo investigate the value of platelet-albumin-bilirubin index （PALBI） combined with AIMS65 score in predicting rebleeding and death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding （AUGIB）. MethodsA retrospective study was conducted for 238 patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from February 2021 to October 2022， and all patients were followed up for 6 weeks. According to the prognosis， they were divided into death group with 65 patients and survival group with 173 patients， and according to the presence or absence of rebleeding， they were divided into non-rebleeding group with 149 patients and rebleeding group with 89 patients. General data and laboratory markers （including blood routine， liver/renal function， and coagulation）， and PALBI， AIMS65 score， Child-Turcotte-Pugh （CTP） score， and Model for End-stage Liver Disease （MELD） score were calculated on admission. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A multivariate logistic regression model analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for death or rebleeding within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to investigate the predictive efficacy of each scoring system， and the DeLong test was used for comparison of AUC. ResultsThere were significant differences between the death group and the survival group in hematemesis， past history of varices， albumin （Alb）， total bilirubin （TBil）， international normalized ratio （INR）， creatinine （Cr）， prothrombin time （PT）， systolic blood pressure， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis （odds ratio ［OR］=4.34， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.88 — 10.05， P<0.001）， past history of varices （OR=3.51， 95%CI： 1.37 — 8.98， P=0.009）， PALBI （OR=4.49， 95%CI： 1.48 — 13.64， P=0.008）， and AIMS65 score （OR=3.85， 95%CI： 2.35 — 6.30， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for death. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting survival showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.758， 0.798， 0.789， 0.870， and 0.888， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had a significantly larger AUC than the four scoring systems used alone （all P<0.05）. There were significant differences between the rebleeding group and the non-rebleeding group in hematemesis， history of diabetes， Alb， TBil， INR， Cr， PT， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PALBI （OR=2.41， 95%CI： 1.17 — 4.95， P=0.017） and AIMS65 score （OR=1.58， 95%CI： 1.17 — 2.15， P=0.003） were independent risk factors for rebleeding. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting rebleeding showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.680， 0.719， 0.709， 0.711， and 0.741， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had the largest AUC （all P<0.05）， but with a relatively low specificity. ConclusionPALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a certain value in predicting death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB， with a better value than CTP score and MELD score alone. PALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a relatively low value in predicting rebleeding within 6 weeks， with an acceptable accuracy.
RESUMEN
ObjectiveTo investigate the value of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index （APRI） and platelet-albumin-bilirubin （PALBI） score in predicting the risk of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. MethodsA total of 119 patients with liver cirrhosis who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from May 2021 and June 2022 were enrolled， and clinical data， routine blood test results， serum biochemistry， and coagulation test results were collected from all patients. According to the presence or absence of esophagogastric variceal bleeding， the patients were divided into non-bleeding group with 59 patients and bleeding group with 60 patients， and a comparative analysis was performed for the two groups. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-squared test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis and establish a nomogram predictive model. ResultsThe male patients accounted for 75.00% in the bleeding group and 40.68% in the non-bleeding group， and there was a significant difference in sex composition between the two groups （χ2=14.384， P<0.001）. Chronic hepatitis B was the main etiology in both the bleeding group and the non-bleeding group （53.33% vs 38.98%）， and there was no significant difference in composition ratio between the two groups （χ2=2.464， P=0.116）. Compared with the non-bleeding group， the bleeding group had a significantly higher activity of AT-IIIA （t=3.329， P=0.001） and significantly lower levels of PLT， TBil， Ca， TC， and TT （all P<0.05）. There were significant differences in APRI and PALBI between the two groups （χ2=6.175 and 19.532， both P<0.05）. The binary logistic regression analysis showed that APRI （odds ratio ［OR］=0.309， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.109 — 0.881， P=0.028）， PALBI （OR=7.667， 95%CI： 2.005 — 29.327， P=0.003）， Ca （OR=0.001， 95%CI： 0.000 — 0.141， P=0.007）， TC （OR=0.469， 95%CI： 0.226 — 0.973， P=0.042）， and TT （OR=0.599， 95%CI： 0.433 — 0.830， P=0.002） were independent influencing factors for esophagogastric variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis. A nomogram model was established based on the above factors and had an index of concordance of 0.899 and a well-fitted calibration curve. ConclusionAPRI and PALBI have a good value in predicting esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis， and the nomogram model established based on this study can predict the incidence rate of esophagogastric variceal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis.
RESUMEN
Objective@#To evaluate the accuracy of the new non-invasive liver disease model platelet-albumin-bilirubin index (PALBI) in the diagnosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (AUGIB) due to cirrhosis.@*Methods@#277 patients with AUGIB due to cirrhosis were analyzed retrospectively. The data of platelet, total bilirubin, albumin, creatinine, international standardized ratio and etiology of cirrhosis were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for death in patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB. Analysis of variance was used to compare the differences between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and PALBI grades. Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the association between MELD and PALBI. The operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to compare the predictive power of both for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB.@*Results@#The short-term and long-term mortality rates of patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB were 13.7% and 23.5%, respectively. The average hospital stay was (9.1±3.9)days. The high MELD score and high PALBI index were confirmed as independent risk factors of death by single factor and multiple factors [odds ratio (OR)=1.17, 4.43; P<0.05]; the Pearson correlation analysis showed there was a positive correlation between MELD score and PALBI index (r=0.735, P<0.05). The PALBI score was scored in MELD-a patients, further subdivided into PALBI-1a and PALBI-1b. There were statistical difference in the 1-year mortality rate between the two groups (7.0% vs 17.8%, χ2=4.033, P<0.05). The ROC curve was used to compare the predictive power of MELD and PALBI for short-term mortality. The area under curve (AUC) of PALBI was 0.767 (95% CI: 0.712-0.815), while the AUC of the MELD score was 0.651 (95% CI: 0.591-0.707), with statistically significant difference (Z=2.328, P<0.05). The predictive power of PALBI and MELD for long-term mortality were 0.731(95% CI: 0.674-0.782), 0.754 (95% CI: 0.699-0.804), but the difference was not statistically significant (Z=0.828, P>0.05).@*Conclusions@#PALBI has a better predictive effect on patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB than MELD scores. PALBI can achieve a more precise prognosis classification for patients with MELD-a, and maintain a good prediction ability on the short-term (within 30 days of hospitalization and discharge) and long-term (within 1 year after discharge) mortality of patients. As a new liver disease model, PALBI can be used as an effective non-invasive means to judge the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB .
RESUMEN
Objective To evaluate the accuracy of the new non-invasive liver disease model platelet-albumin-bilirubin index (PALBI) in the diagnosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (AUGIB) due to cirrhosis.Methods 277 patients with AUGIB due to cirrhosis were analyzed retrospectively.The data of platelet,total bilirubin,albumin,creatinine,international standardized ratio and etiology of cirrhosis were collected.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for death in patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB.Analysis of variance was used to compare the differences between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and PALBI grades.Pearson correlation analysis was used to assess the association between MELD and PALBI.The operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to compare the predictive power of both for short-term and long-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB.Results The short-term and long-term mortality rates of patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB were 13.7％ and 23.5％,respectively.The average hospital stay was (9.1 ± 3.9) days.The high MELD score and high PALBI index were confirmed as independent risk factors of death by single factor and multiple factors [odds ratio (OR) =1.17,4.43;P ＜0.05];the Pearson correlation analysis showed there was a positive correlation between MELD score and PALBI index (r =0.735,P ＜ 0.05).The PALBI score was scored in MELD-a patients,further subdivided into PALBI-1a and PALBI-1b.There were statistical difference in the 1-year mortality rate between the two groups (7.0％ vs 17.8％,x2 =4.033,P ＜ 0.05).The ROC curve was used to compare the predictive power of MELD and PALBI for short-term mortality.The area under curve (AUC) of PALBI was 0.767 (95％ CI:0.712-0.815),while the AUC of the MELD score was 0.651 (95％ CI:0.591-0.707),with statistically significant difference (Z =2.328,P ＜ 0.05).The predictive power of PALBI and MELD for long-term mortality were 0.731 (95％ CI:0.674-0.782),0.754 (95％ CI:0.699-0.804),but the difference was not statistically significant (Z =0.828,P ＞ 0.05).Conclusions PALBI has a better predictive effect on patients with cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB than MELD scores.PALBI can achieve a more precise prognosis classification for patients with MELD-a,and maintain a good prediction ability on the short-term (within 30 days of hospitalization and discharge) and long-term (within 1 year after discharge) mortality of patients.As a new liver disease model,PALBI can be used as an effective non-invasive means to judge the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis complicated by AUGIB.
RESUMEN
Background: Several scoring systems have been designed for risk stratification and prediction of outcomes in upper GI bleed. Endoscopy plays a major role in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of UGIB patients. However not all patients with UGIB need endoscopy. The objective of the present study was compared the prediction of mortality using different scoring systems in patients with upper GI bleed. A decision tool with a high sensitivity would be able to identify high and low risk patients and for judicious utilization of available resources.Methods: 100 patients were assessed with respect to their clinical parameters, organ dysfunction, pertinent laboratory parameters and five risk assessment scores i.e. clinical Rockall, Glasgow Blatchford, ALBI, PALBI and AIMS65 were calculated.Results: For prediction of outcomes, AIMS65 was superior to the others (AUROC of 0.889), followed by the GBS (AUROC of 0.869), followed by clinical Rockall score (AUROC 0.815), followed by ALBI score (AUROC of 0.765), followed by PALBI score (AUROC of 0.714) all values being statistically significant.Conclusions: The AIMS65 score is best in predicting the mortality in patients with upper GI bleed. The optimum cut off being >2. Though GBS may be better in predicting the need for intervention, it is inferior in predicting the mortality. The newer scores like ALBI and PALBI are inferior to AIMS65 and GBS in predicting mortality.