Índice predictivo de cardiopatía isquémica en personas con diabetes mellitus

Introducción: Los individuos con diabetes mellitus tienen un riesgo de cardiopatía isquémica 2 a 4 veces superior a la observada en la población general. Objetivo: Diseñar un índice, basado en los factores de riesgo identificados, para predecir el desarrollo de cardiopatía isquémica en pacientes con diabetes mellitus. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio analítico de tipo casos y controles en 330 pacientes con diabetes mellitus. El índice se derivó del análisis de regresión logística binaria de los factores de riesgo cardiovasculares. Resultados: El índice propuesto mostró elevada morbilidad en las categorías de riesgo alto (48,9 %) y riesgo muy alto (100 %); sus valores promedio fueron significativamente mayores en los pacientes con cardiopatía isquémica, en comparación con aquellos que no la desarrollaron (7,98 x 3,67; p= 0,000). La curva COR del índice propuesto tiene buena capacidad para discriminar los pacientes que tendrán una cardiopatía isquémica de los que no desarrollarán la enfermedad (0,902; p= 0,000). Conclusiones: El índice que se propone es capaz de predecir el desarrollo de cardiopatía isquémica en pacientes con diabetes mellitus.

Introduction: Individuals with diabetes mellitus have a risk of ischemic heart disease 2 to 4 times higher than that observed in the general population. Objective: To design an index, based on the identified risk factors, to predict the development of ischemic heart disease in patients with diabetes mellitus. Methods: An analytical case-control study was carried out in 330 patients with diabetes mellitus. The index was derived from binary logistic regression analysis of cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The proposed index showed a high morbidity in the categories of high risk (48.9%) and very high risk (100%). Likewise, their mean values ​​were significantly higher in patients with ischemic heart disease compared to those who did not develop it (7.98 x 3.67; p= 0.000). The ROC curve of the proposed index has a good ability to discriminate patients who will have ischemic heart disease from those who will not develop the disease (0.902; p= 0.000). Conclusions: The proposed index is capable of predicting the development of ischemic heart disease in patients with diabetes mellitus.

Research progress on risk predictors of refeeding syndrome in intensive care unit patients / 中华危重病急救医学

Refeeding syndrome (RFS) is a potentially fatal complication of clinical nutritional therapy. Patients in intensive care unit (ICU) consuming nutrients under high stress and high metabolism are more likely to develop RFS, which is closely related to the poor prognosis and higher mortality. However, due to the lack of characteristic clinical manifestations of RFS and the incomplete evaluation of risk factors, there are few reports on the related research of RFS risk prediction model, and it is easily ignored by clinicians. The key to prevention and treatment is to clarify the risk factors of RFS in ICU patients, early identify high-risk patients and initiate intervention. In this paper, the diagnostic criteria, current domestic and abroad situation, risk prediction indexes and preventive therapy of RFS are reviewed. It provides a reference for constructing an RFS risk prediction model that is in line with our national conditions, in order to improve the ability of medical staff to early identify RFS and improve the survival rate of ICU patients.

Modified ovarian response prediction index: a novel index for ovarian response prediction in GnRH agonist cycles

Background: Evaluation of the ovarian reserve is necessary to achieve an appropriate controlled ovarian stimulation (COS). This can be done by correctly predicting the ovarian response. The objective of this study was to derive a simple index by combining the above parameters which will be helpful determining ovarian response.Methods: This retrospective analysis was performed at Guru hospital, Madurai, involving 162 patients between July 2016 and July 2018. Inclusion criteria was all patients attending for their first ICSI (intracytoplasmic sperm injection) cycle between the above period, GnRH agonist protocol as the method of ovarian stimulation, no history of any previous ovarian surgery, presence of both ovaries and no evidence of any obvious endocrine disorders. We calculated MORPI values by multiplying the AMH (ng/ml) level by the number of antral follicles (2-9 mm), and the result was divided by the age (years) of the patient and the day- 3 serum FSH level.Results: At a cut-off value of 35 (AUC-0.952) for collection of ≥ 4 oocytes and 140 (AUC-0.952) for collection of ≥ 15 oocytes, MORPI was found to have optimum sensitivity and specificity under ROC curve analysis.Conclusions: MORPI is a simple, precise and cost effective index to predict a low ovarian response, the collection of >4 MII oocytes and an excessive ovarian response in infertile women. This index also has a good ability to predict the clinical pregnancy rate. This might be used to improve the cost-benefit ratio of ovarian stimulation regimens.

Índice predictivo para la discapacidad moderada a grave por migraña / Predictive index for moderate to severe disability due to migraine

Se realizó un estudio de casos y testigos en pacientes con migraña, diagnosticados mediante un estudio transversal efectuado en el municipio Bayamo de la provincia Granma, entre enero de 2007 y diciembre de 2009, con el objetivo de construir y validar un índice predictivo del riesgo de desarrollar la discapacidad moderada a grave por migraña. La construcción del índice incluyó la selección de los factores de riesgo y el cálculo de sus ponderaciones. Se obtuvo un índice cuantitativo que fue subdividido en 4 categorías de riesgo, mientras que la validez fue satisfactoria en todos los aspectos evaluados. Dicho índice demostró tener buena capacidad discriminativa (área bajo la curva ROC 0,937) y permitió diagnosticar correctamente a 89,74 por ciento de los pacientes, con sensibilidad de 86,73 por ciento y especificidad de 91,12 por ciento. El índice de Kappa interobservador fue de 0,950 (p=0,000), el global de 0,965 (p=0,000) y el coeficiente Alfa de Cronbach, de 0,627.

A cases and control study was carried out in patients with migraine, diagnosed by means of a cross-sectional study in Bayamo municipality, Granma province, between January, 2007 to December, 2009, with the objective of creating and validating a predictive index for the risk of developing moderate to severe disability due to migraine. The creation of the index included the selection of risk factors and the calculation of its values. A quantitative index was obtained which was subdivided in 4 categories of risk, while the validity was satisfactory in all the evaluated aspects. This index demonstrated to have good discriminative capacity (area under the curve ROC 0.937) and it allowed to diagnose correctly 89.74 percent of the patients, with sensibility of 86.74 percent and specificity of 91.12 percent. The Kappa index between observers was 0.950 (p=0.000), the global index was 0.965 (p=0.000) and the coefficient Alpha of Cronbach, 0.627.

Índice de gravedad en neumonía comunitaria hospitalizada / Severit predictiion index in hospitalized communitary acquired pneumonia

Fine's severity prediction index (SPI), was retrospectively analyzed in community acquired pneumonia (CAP), in patients at Concepción Regional Hospital, from June to August 2000. We studied 57 CAP patients: 23 as low risk and 34 as high risk patients. In comparison to low risk patients the main features of high risk patients were: older age (p < 0.00001), higher comorbility (p < 0.004), longer hospitalization (p < 0.0007) and higher mortality (p < 0.018). Mortality in low risk patients was similar to Fine's study: 4.3 versus 3.5%. In high risk patients mortality was 26% versus 38%. Main complications in our series were mechanical ventilation (43.8%), PaO2/FiO2 < 250 mmHg (43.8%), and hepatic coma (38.5%). As a conclusion, we recommend the use of SPI in CAP at Emergency Services in order to better evaluate mortality, optimizing criteria of hospital admission.

Se evaluó el Índice de Gravedad de Fine (IG) en neumonías de la comunidad (NAC) hospitalizadas en el Hospital Regional de Concepción en trabajo retrospectivo con 57 casos entre Junio y Agosto del año 2000. Se estudiaron 23 pacientes catalogados de bajo riesgo y 34 de alto riesgo. Características de alto riesgo fueron, mayor edad (p < 0,00001), mayor comorbilidad (p < 0,0004), estadía prolongada (p < 0,00007) y mayor mortalidad (p < 0,018). La mortalidad de bajo riesgo fue similar a la de Fine, 4,3% versus 3,5%, siendo menor en el grupo de alto riesgo, 26% versus 38%. Factores de mayor complicación en NAC fueron, ventilación mecánica (43,8%), PaO2/FiO2 < 250 mmHg (43,8%) y coma hepático (35,8%). Conclusión: es aconsejable el uso del IG en NAC a nivel de Servicios de Urgencia, para evaluar los riesgos de mortalidad, optimizando así los criterios de ingreso al hospital.