The effect of the shock index and scoring systems for predicting mortality among geriatric patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is an important cause of mortality and morbidity among geriatric patients. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the shock index and other scoring systems are effective predictors of mortality and prognosis among geriatric patients presenting to the emergency department with complaints of upper GI bleeding. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study in an emergency department in Bursa, Turkey. METHODS: Patients over 65 years admitted to a single-center, tertiary emergency service between May 8, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and diagnosed with upper GI bleeding were analyzed. 30, 180 and 360-day mortality prediction performances of the shock index and the Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford and AIMS-65 scores were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 111 patients who met the criteria were included in the study. The shock index (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of the patients who died within the 30-day period were found to be significantly different, while the shock index (P < 0.001), Rockall score (P < 0.001) and AIMS-65 score (P < 0.05) of patients who died within the 180-day and 360-day periods were statistically different. In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for predicting 360-day mortality, the area under the curve (AUC) value was found to be 0.988 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.971-1.000; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The shock index measured among geriatric patients with upper GI bleeding at admission seems to be a more effective predictor of prognosis than other scoring systems.

Perfusion index: Could this be a new triage tool for upper gastrointestinal system bleeding in the emergency department? A prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Many scoring systems for predicting mortality, rebleeding and transfusion needs among patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) have been developed. However, no scoring system can predict all these outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To show whether the perfusion index (PI), compared with the Rockall score (RS), helps predict transfusion needs and prognoses among patients presenting with UGIB in emergency departments. In this way, critical patients with transfusion needs can be identified at an early stage. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective cohort study in an emergency department in Turkey, conducted between June 2018 and June 2019. METHODS: Patients' demographic parameters, PI, RS, transfusion needs and prognosis were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 219 patients were included. Blood transfusion was performed in 174 patients (79.4%). The PI cutoff value for prediction of the need for blood transfusion was 1.17, and the RS cutoff value was 5. The area under the curve (AUC) value for PI (AUC: 0.772; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.705-0.838; P < 0.001) was higher than for RS (AUC: 0.648; 95% CI: 0.554-0.741; P = 0.002). 185 patients (84.5%) were discharged, and 34 patients (15.5%) died. The PI cutoff value for predicting mortality was 1.1, and the RS cutoff value was 7. The AUC value for PI (AUC: 0.743; 95% CI: 0.649-0.837; P < 0.001) was higher than for RS (AUC: 0.725; 95% CI: 0.639-0.811; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: PI values for patients admitted to emergency departments with UGIB on admission can help predict their need for transfusion and mortality risk.

Comparação dos escores não endoscópicos para a previsão de resultados em doentes com sangramento gastrointestinal alto na emergência de um hospital de referência em cuidados terciários: um estudo de coorte prospectivo / Comparison of non-endoscopic scores for the prediction of outcomes in patients of upper gastrointestinal bleed in an emergency of a tertiary care referral hospital: a prospective cohort study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Traditionally peptic ulcer disease was the most common cause of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed but with the changing epidemiology; other etiologies of UGI bleed are emerging. Many scores have been described for predicting outcomes and the need for intervention in UGI bleed but prospective comparison among them is scarce. OBJECTIVE: This study was planned to determine the etiological pattern of UGI bleed and to compare Glasgow Blatchford score, Pre-Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) as predictors of outcome. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study 268 patients of UGI bleed were enrolled and followed up for 8 weeks. Glasgow Blatchford score, Endoscopy Rockall score, AIMS65, and MEWS were calculated for each patient, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve for each score was compared. RESULTS: The most common etiology for UGI bleed were gastroesophageal varices 150 (63.55%) followed by peptic ulcer disease 29 (12.28%) and mucosal erosive disease 27 (11.44%). Total 38 (15.26%) patients had re-bleed and 71 (28.5%) patients died. Overall, 126 (47%) patients required blood component transfusion, 25 (9.3%) patients required mechanical ventilation and 2 (0.74%) patients required surgical intervention. Glasgow Blatchford score was the best in predicting the need for transfusion (cut off - 10, AUC-ROC= 0.678). Whereas AIMS65 with a score of ≥2 was best in predicting re-bleed (AUC-ROC=0.626) and mortality (AUC-ROC=0.725). CONCLUSION: Gastrointestinal bleed was most commonly of variceal origin at our tertiary referral center in Northern India. AIMS65 was the best & simplest score with a score of ≥2 for predicting re-bleed and mortality.

RESUMO CONTEXTO: Tradicionalmente, a doença úlcera péptica era a causa mais comum de sangramento digestivo alto, mas com a mudança da epidemiologia, outras etiologias do sangramento do trato digestivo alto estão emergindo. Muitas pontuações têm sido descritas para prever resultados e a necessidade de intervenção na hemorragia gastrointestinal superior, mas a comparação prospectiva entre elas é escassa. OBJETIVO: Este estudo foi planeado para determinar o padrão etiológico de pacientes com hemorragia digestiva alta e comparar os escores de Glasgow Blatchford, o Rockall pré-endoscopia, o AIMS65 e o Early Warning modificado (MEWS) como preditores do resultado. MÉTODOS: Neste estudo prospetivo de coorte, 268 pacientes com sangramento digestivo alto foram acompanhados durante 8 semanas. Os escores Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall pré-endoscopia, AIMS65 e MEWS foram calculados para cada paciente, e a área sob a curva (AUC-ROC) para cada pontuação foi comparada. RESULTADOS: A etiologia mais comum para a hemorragia gastrointestinal alta foi varizes gastroesofágicas 150 (63,55%), seguida de úlcera péptica 29 (12,28%) e de doença erosiva de mucosa 27 (11,44%). No total, 38 (15,26%) doentes voltaram a sangrar e 71 (28,5%) doentes morreram. No total, 126 (47%) doentes necessitaram de transfusão de componentes sanguíneos, 25 (9,3%) necessitaram de ventilação mecânica e 2 (0,74%) destes doentes necessitaram de intervenção cirúrgica. O escore de Glasgow Blatchford foi o melhor na previsão da necessidade de transfusão (corte - 10, AUC-ROC =0,678). Enquanto o AIMS65 com uma pontuação de ≥2 foi o melhor na previsão de ressangramento (AUC-ROC =0,626) e mortalidade (AUC-ROC =0,725). CONCLUSÃO: O sangramento gastrointestinal alto mais comum é de origem varicosa em centro de referência terciária. O AIMS65 é o melhor escore simples, com uma pontuação de ≥2 para prever o ressangramento e a mortalidade.

Comparison of prediction of outcomes in upper GI bleed using non-endoscopic scoring systems

Background: Several scoring systems have been designed for risk stratification and prediction of outcomes in upper GI bleed. Endoscopy plays a major role in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of UGIB patients. However not all patients with UGIB need endoscopy. The objective of the present study was compared the prediction of mortality using different scoring systems in patients with upper GI bleed. A decision tool with a high sensitivity would be able to identify high and low risk patients and for judicious utilization of available resources.Methods: 100 patients were assessed with respect to their clinical parameters, organ dysfunction, pertinent laboratory parameters and five risk assessment scores i.e. clinical Rockall, Glasgow Blatchford, ALBI, PALBI and AIMS65 were calculated.Results: For prediction of outcomes, AIMS65 was superior to the others (AUROC of 0.889), followed by the GBS (AUROC of 0.869), followed by clinical Rockall score (AUROC 0.815), followed by ALBI score (AUROC of 0.765), followed by PALBI score (AUROC of 0.714) all values being statistically significant.Conclusions: The AIMS65 score is best in predicting the mortality in patients with upper GI bleed. The optimum cut off being >2. Though GBS may be better in predicting the need for intervention, it is inferior in predicting the mortality. The newer scores like ALBI and PALBI are inferior to AIMS65 and GBS in predicting mortality.

Comparative study on Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score system in predicting clinical outcomes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding / 天津医药

Objective To compare Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) with full Rockall score system (full RS) in predicting clinical outcomes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB).Methods Four hundred hospitalized UGIB patients were enrolled in this study in Baoji Central Hospital from March 2014 to June 2016. Patients were scored by full RS and GBS,respectively.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was used to compare the predictive values of the two score systems for mortality,re-bleeding,transfusion,ICU admission and endoscopic intervention. Results Thirty-eight cases were lost in follow-up. The one-month mortality rate, re-bleeding rate, blood transfusion rate, ICU admission rate and endoscopic intervention rate of 362 patients were 11.6%, 9.4%, 17.7%, 13.3% and 16.0%, respectively. GBS showed better predictive values in ICU admission (AUC=0.731, P=0.009), re-bleeding (AUC=0.707, P=0.019), blood transfusion (AUC=0.704, P=0.021) and endoscopic intervention (AUC=0.742, P=0.006). Full RS showed better predictive values in one-month mortality (AUC=0.681, P=0.040). There was significant difference in predicting value of clinical outcomes of UGIB by ROC curve between GBS and full-RS systems (P<0.05). Conclusion The GBS system is more suitable for predicting clinical outcomes of ICU admission, re-bleeding, blood transfusion and endoscopic intervention in patients of UGIB.The full-RS system is more suitable for predicting one-month mortality of UGIB patients.

Rockall risk score in predicting 30 days non-variceal upper gastrointestinal rebleeding in a Malaysian population

Objective: the aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of Rockall score in predicting outcomes of 30 days rebleeding, mortality and need for surgical intervention of bleeding gastric and duodenal ulcers. Methods: this is a retrospective cohort study of all the emergency endoscopies performed in Hospital sultan Ismail from January 2009 to October 2014 for indications of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIb). Data was extracted from hospital's electronic database and only non-variceal bleeds were included. Rockall score was calculated and outcomes of 30 days rebleeding, mortality and need for surgery was recorded. For each outcome, calibration was done using the Goodness-of-fit tests and discriminative ability was reflected by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROc). Results: A total of 1323 patients were included with a male preponderance of 64%. the overall rates of rebleeding were 11.2%, mortality rate of 8.7% and need for surgery was 2%. Low AUROc values for rebleeding (0.63), mortality (0.58) and surgery (0.67) showed poor discriminative ability of Rockall score. the Goodness-of-fit test also revealed that the scoring system was poorly calibrated in outcomes of rebleeding (p <0.001), mortality (p = 0.001) and surgery (p = 0.038) with p-value <0.05. Patients with high risk (scores ≥8) displayed highest rebleeding and mortality rates of 20% respectively in comparison to the moderate (score 3-7) and low (score ≤2) risk groups. conclusion: Rockall score has a poor discriminative ability and is poorly calibrated for rebleeding, mortality and need for surgery in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, it is the best tool we have now to stratify patients into risk groups.

Comparison of AIMS65 Score and Other Scoring Systems for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Koreans with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The AIMS65 score has not been sufficiently validated in Korea. The objective of this study was to compare the AIMS65 and other scoring systems for the prediction of various clinical outcomes in Korean patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). METHODS: The AIMS65 score, clinical and full Rockall scores (cRS and fRS) and Glasgow-Blatchford (GBS) score were calculated in patients with NVUGIB in a single center retrospectively. The performance of these scores for predicting mortality, rebleeding, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Of the 523 patients, 3.4% died within 30 days, 2.5% experienced rebleeding, 40.0% required endoscopic intervention, and 75.7% needed transfusion. The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, the need for endoscopic intervention and for transfusion. The fRS was superior to the AIMS65, GBS, and cRS for predicting endoscopic intervention and the GBS was superior to the AIMS65, fRS, and cRS for predicting the transfusion requirement. CONCLUSIONS: The AIMS65 score was useful for predicting the 30-day mortality, transfusion requirement, and endoscopic intervention in Korean patients with acute NVUGIB. However, it was inferior to the GBS and fRS for predicting the transfusion requirement and endoscopic intervention, respectively.

Comparison of the Risk Stratification Tools Including the Blatchford Score and the Clinical Rockall for Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in the Emergency Department

PURPOSE: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common medical emergency condition in the emergency department (ED). Patients with UGIB show a wide range of clinical severity, from mild bleeding to death. The objective of this study was to evaluate methods for risk stratification of active UGIB in the ED. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed patients with UGIB who were admitted to the ED of a tertiary care, university-affiliated hospital center from January 2011 to December 2011. Our study subjects were patients over 20 years old who complained of symptoms and signs of gastrointestinal tract bleeding and underwent endoscopic gastroduodenoscopy (EGD) evaluation. However, patients diagnosed with variceal gastrointestinal bleeding, disseminated malignancy, coagulopathy, and lower gastrointestinal bleeding and patients who did not undergo EGD within 6 hours were excluded. The Blatchford score and the clinical Rockall score were calculated for the enrolled patients. In cases where the value of each score was greater than 0, the scores were considered high risk. Active UGIB was defined as a symptom of patients who underwent emergency endoscopic intervention such as ligation or sclerotherapy. We compared the proportions of patients identified as high risk using chi tests. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for detection of patients requiring emergency endoscopic intervention were calculated for both the Blatchford score and the clinical Rockall score. RESULTS: The numbers of patients with high risk according to the Blatchford score and the clinical Rockall were 220 (93.6%) and 192 (81.7%) of 235 patients, respectively. The number of patients with active UGIB was 96 (40.9%) of 235 patients. The sensitivity and specificity of risk stratification based on the Blatchford score was 100% (96/96) and 10.8% (15/139) (p=0.001), respectively, while those based on the clinical Rockall score were 80.2% (77/96) and 17.3% (24/139) (p>0.05). The AUROC curves of the Blatchford score and the clinical Rockall score were 0.617 (95% CI; 0.546-0.688) and 0.495 (95% CI; 0.420-0.571), respectively. CONCLUSION: The Blatchford score could be more useful as a risk stratification tool than the clinical Rockall score for active UGIB patients in the ED. The Blatchford score would be preferable as a clinical tool that can discriminate patients who need emergency endoscopic intervention for control of UGIB.

Evaluación de la clasificación de Rockall como predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con hemorragia digestiva alta de origen no variceal / Assessment of Rockall score as a mortality predictor in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Introduction: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), a high morbi-mortality disease, is a medical emergency with high incidence among the population. It also represents a significant health expense and its mortality rate is 4-12 percent. There are different systems to classify the risk for these patients; one of them is the Rockall Score. This system has been previously validated as mortality predictor. Objective: To evaluate the use in our environment of the Rockall Score as a mortality predictor, the need for surgery and hemoderivative requirements. Materials and Methods: Retrospective study in adult patients subjected to emergency upper digestive endoscopy due to potential non-variceal UGIB at Hospital Militar de Santiago. Many clinical and endoscopic variables were analyzed. Validation of Rockall Score was carried out by ROC curve analysis. Results: Ninety-one patients were studied: 2/3 male; 70 percent > 60 years; 68 percent with a related disease. The most frequent endoscopic diagnosis was stomach and duodenal lesions. Mortality rate of 8.8 percent. Rockall Score indicated an acceptable discrimination ratio as a predictor of mortality, need for surgery and red blood cell transfusion. The best sensitivity and specificity correlation score was >_ 5 to determine the high-risk group. Conclusion: Rockall Score proved to be a good mortality predictor in patients with non-variceal UGIB in our environment. The identification of high-risk UGIB patients will allow for an appropiate therapeutic approach.

Introducción: Hemorragia digestiva alta (HDA), patología de alta morbimortalidad, es una emergencia médica, presenta alta incidencia poblacional y demanda alto gasto en salud. Presenta una mortalidad entre 4-12 por ciento. Existen diferentes sistemas de clasificación de riesgo para estos pacientes, uno de los cuales es la clasificación de Rockall. Este sistema ha sido previamente validado como predictor de mortalidad. Objetivo: Evaluar en nuestro medio el uso de la clasificación de Rockall, para predecir mortalidad, necesidad de cirugía y requerimientos de hemoderivados. Materiales y Métodos: Estudio restrospectivo en pacientes adultos sometidos a endoscopia digestiva alta de urgencia por sospecha de HDA no variceal en el Hospital Militar de Santiago. Se analizaron diversas variables clínicas y endoscópicas. La validación de la clasificación de Rockall se realizó con el análisis de curva ROC. Resultados: Se estudiaron 91 pacientes: 2/3 de sexo masculino; 70 por ciento > 60 años; 68 por ciento presentaban alguna enfermedad asociada. El diagnóstico endoscópico mas frecuente fue lesiones en estómago y duodeno. Tasa de mortalidad de 8,8 por ciento. La clasificación de Rockall mostró un aceptable nivel de discriminación como predictor de mortalidad, requerimiento de cirugía y tranfusión de glóbulos rojos. El puntaje de mejor correlación de sensibilidad y especificidad fue > 5 para definir el grupo de alto riesgo. Conclusión: La clasificación de Rockall resultó ser un buen predictor de mortalidad en pacientes con HDA no variceal en nuestro medio. Identificar pacientes con HDA de alto riesgo, permitiría un adecuado enfrentamiento terapéutico.

Clinical Usefulness of Rockall Scoring System in Patients with Bleeding Peptic Ulcer-Comparison with Forrest Classification / 대한소화기학회지

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The Rockall risk assessment score was developed to predict the risk of rebleeding and death in patients with upper GI hemorrhage. The validity of this score, however, was not established in Korea. We tried to assess the reliability of the Rockall score to predict outcomes in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer. METHODS: Medical records of 175 patients with benign peptic ulcer bleeding treated in Samsung Medical Center from January 2000 to May 2003 were retrospectively analyzed. They were classified into three groups: no rebleeding rebleeding, and death and mean Rockall score was compared. Forrest classification was also compared with the Rockall score regarding the clinical usefulness of predicting poor outcomes in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer. RESUTLS: One hundred forty five patients did not show rebleeding, with mean Rockall score of 3.5 (SD=1.5). On the other hand, rebleeding occurred in 25 patients and the mean score was 6.4 (SD=1.44). There were 13 deaths with mean score of 7.0 (SD=1.08). The differences between the three groups were significant (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, Rockall score was a independent risk factor of rebleeding and mortality (odds ratio, OR=2.73 and OR=8.74). CONCLUSIONS: The Rockall scoring system is useful to predict poor outcome such as rebleeding and death in patients with bleeding peptic ulcer.