Trends on deaths from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico, 2000-2021 / Tendências das mortes por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México, 2000-2021

ABSTRACT Objetive: To provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality trends from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico from 2000 through 2021. Methods: The governmental records of deaths from acute pesticide poisoning were used. The age-standardized years of life lost and aged-standardized mortality rates were estimated. Significant changes in trends of annual percentage change were identified using Joinpoint regression. Results: Between 2000 and 2021, mortality was primarily observed in individuals aged 15 to 19 years. Males were the most affected. Self-inflicted pesticide poisoning was the primary registered reason for death. The age-standardized mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning was reduced from 2012 to 2021 (APC: -4.4; p=0.003). Conclusion: This report is the first study about the mortality rate from acute pesticide poisoning in Mexico. The results provided evidence to consider in developing laws to prevent acute pesticide poisoning.

RESUMO Objetivo: Fornecer uma análise abrangente das tendências de mortalidade por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas no México de 2000 a 2021. Métodos: Foram usados os registros governamentais de mortes por envenenamento agudo por pesticidas. Foram estimados os anos de vida perdidos estandardizados por idade e as taxas de mortalidade estandardizados por idade. Modificações significativas nas tendências de variação percentual anual foram identificadas usando a regressão Joinpoint. Resultados: Entre 2000 e 2021, a mortalidade foi observada principalmente em indivíduos na faixa etária de 15 a 19 anos. Os homens foram os mais afetados. O envenenamento por pesticida autoinfligido foi o principal motivo de morte registrado. A taxa de mortalidade estandardizada por idade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas foi reduzida de 2012 a 2021 (Annual Percent Change — APC: -4,4; p=0,003). Conclusão: Este relatório é o primeiro estudo sobre a taxa de mortalidade por intoxicação aguda por pesticidas no México. Os resultados forneceram evidências a serem consideradas no desenvolvimento de leis para prevenir o envenenamento agudo por pesticidas.

Análise da tendência da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil, 2000 a 2022 / Analysis of the trend of mortality from external causes in older adults in Brazil, 2000 to 2022

Resumo Objetivo analisar a tendência de mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas no Brasil no intervalo temporal entre os anos 2000 e 2022 e identificar o perfil sociodemográfico de mortalidade. Método estudo ecológico de série temporal utilizando dados secundários, envolvendo a mortalidade em pessoas idosas por causas externas no Brasil, no período de 2000 a 2022. Os dados foram coletados a partir das bases de dados do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, das estimativas da população residente e de dados populacionais censitários disponibilizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. A frequência absoluta e relativa dos dados foi analisada a partir do software Excel 2010. As análises das tendências das taxas de mortalidade e regressão linear segmentada foram realizadas por meio do Joinpoint, com significância estatística avaliada por meio do teste de Monte Carl Resultados No período investigado, foram identificados 572.608 óbitos por causas externas em pessoas idosas com 60 anos ou mais. Em relação ao comportamento da mortalidade por causas externas em pessoas idosas, observou-se tendência de aumento nas taxas de mortalidade na maior parte do período estudado (2000 a 2013) com uma variação percentual anual (VPA: 1,86; IC95%: 1,5-2,2). Conclusão os resultados indicam uma tendência de crescimento da mortalidade de pessoas idosas por causas externas, refletindo a necessidade de priorização de políticas públicas que intervenham sobre esse evento.

Abstract Objective To analyze the trend of mortality due to external causes in older adults in Brazil within the temporal interval spanning from 2000 to 2022 and to identify the sociodemographic profile of mortality. Method Ecological time-series study utilizing secondary data, encompassing mortality in older adults due to external causes in Brazil, spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The data were collected from the databases of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System, population estimates, and census population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The absolute and relative frequency of the data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2010 software. The analysis of trends in mortality rates and segmented linear regression was conducted using Joinpoint, with statistical significance assessed through the Monte Carlo test. Results During the investigated period, 572,608 deaths due to external causes were identified in individuals aged 60 years or older. Regarding the mortality pattern due to external causes in older adults, an increasing trend in mortality rates was observed for the majority of the studied period (2000 to 2013) with an annual percent change (APC) of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2). Conclusion The results indicate a growing trend in mortality among older individuals due to external causes, highlighting the need for prioritizing public policies that address this issue.

Seasonal variations of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its markers using big-data of health check-ups

BACKGROUND@#It is crucial to understand the seasonal variation of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) for the detection and management of MetS. Previous studies have demonstrated the seasonal variations in MetS prevalence and its markers, but their methods are not robust. To clarify the concrete seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers, we utilized a powerful method called Seasonal Trend Decomposition Procedure based on LOESS (STL) and a big dataset of health checkups.@*METHODS@#A total of 1,819,214 records of health checkups (759,839 records for men and 1,059,375 records for women) between April 2012 and December 2017 were included in this study. We examined the seasonal variations in the MetS prevalence and its markers using 5 years and 9 months health checkup data and STL analysis. MetS markers consisted of waist circumference (WC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), fasting plasma glucose (FPG).@*RESULTS@#We found that the MetS prevalence was high in winter and somewhat high in August. Among men, MetS prevalence was 2.64 ± 0.42 (mean ± SD) % higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Among women, MetS prevalence was 0.53 ± 0.24% higher in the highest month (January) than in the lowest month (June). Additionally, SBP, DBP, and HDL-C exhibited simple variations, being higher in winter and lower in summer, while WC, TG, and FPG displayed more complex variations.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This finding, complex seasonal variations of MetS prevalence, WC, TG, and FPG, could not be derived from previous studies using just the mean values in spring, summer, autumn and winter or the cosinor analysis. More attention should be paid to factors affecting seasonal variations of central obesity, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance.

Trend analysis of hemagglutinin and ovalbumin content for influenza virus split vaccines in 2021 / 中国生物制品学杂志

@#Objective To analyze the trend of the hemagglutinin(HA) and ovalbumin contents in the lot release of influenza virus split vaccines in 2021,and evaluate the quality and quality control level of the vaccines.Methods The HA and ovalbumin content data of influenza virus split vaccines from two domestic enterprises in 2021 were collected and collated. The mean value and standard deviation were calculated according to the first 40 batches of data of the enterprise in the year,and the warning limit and action limit were established. The trend analysis of the above indexes was carried out to evaluate the stability and consistency of the product quality of the enterprise. Statistical data comparison and consistency analysis were made between the test results of the batch inspected by the lot release institution and the results of the enterprise.Results Through the retrospective data analysis of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccines from two vaccine enterprises A and B,it was found that the content of H1N1 subtype HA and ovalbumin in the two enterprises and the content of Bv HA in the B enterprise had out of trend(OOT)situations,while the trend of other items was stable. The results of paired student's t test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test of the samples inspected by the lot release institution showed that except Bv subtype HA(t = 1. 094 and 0. 742 respectively)and ovalbumin(w =-64 and 36 respectively)contents showed no statistically significant difference(P > 0. 05),the HA contents of H1N1(t = 3. 862,w = 232),H3N2(t = 8. 225 and3. 473 respectively)and By(t = 5. 616 and 4. 934 respectively)of the two enterprises had significant differences(P <0. 05). The results of enterprises were generally higher than the lot release institution. Bland-Altman test analysis found that the consistency between the test data of enterprise A's HA content and the data of the lot release institution was better than that of enterprise B.Conclusion The stability and consistency of data trends of active ingredients and main impurity ingredients of quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine batches in 2021 were generally good. The trend analysis can identify potential problems in vaccine production,and enterprises should carefully implement trend analysis and effectively monitor the product quality of vaccines.

Epidemiological trends and disease burden of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children within 10 years / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To retrospectively analyze the epidemiological trend of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding in recent 10 years,and investigate the change of their disease burden,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the accurate prevention and control of children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods A total of 671 children with "lower gastrointestinal bleeding" who were diagnosed in our hospital from 2012 to 2021 were collected as research subjects. To analyze the microscopic examination rate and common etiology of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children in the past 10 years,as well as the epidemiological characteristics of different age groups, different regions and different basic diseases; Calculate and compare the rate of disability life lost (YLD), early death life lost (YLL) and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding within 10 years, and calculate the annual change percentage (AAPC) to analyze the change trend of disease burden. Results The microscopic examination rate of children with lower gastrointestinal bleeding showed a trend of increasing in the past 10 years (P18 years old, hypertension and gastroenteritis. The DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate caused by lower gastrointestinal bleeding in the past 10 years showed an upward trend (P<0.05). Conclusion The microscopic examination rate of lower gastrointestinal bleeding in children was graduallyincreasing,and the prevalence rate of basic diseases such as boys,hypertension and gastroenteritis was increasing;in addition,the disease burden caused by children's lower gastrointestinal bleeding was also increasing year by year and should be protected.

Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratoryinfectious diseases in Huzhou City / 预防医学

Objective @#To understand the epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province from 2017 to 2022, so as to provide insights into formulation of respiratory infectious disease prevention and control strategies.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to notifiable respiratory infectious disease in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 were collected through the Infectious Disease Report Information System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Epidemiological characteristics of notifiable respiratory infectious disease was analyzed using a descriptive epidemiological method.@*Results@#@*Conclusions@#A total of 31 314 cases of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases were reported in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022, with an average annual reported incidence of 169.12/105. The reported incidence of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 (P<0.05). The top six reported diseases in terms of case numbers were influenza (20 048 cases), tuberculosis (6 920 cases), COVID-19 (1 893 cases), mumps (1 413 cases), pertussis (475 cases) and scarlet fever (442 cases), accounting for 99.61% of the total cases. The incidence of influenza, COVID-19 and pertussis showed a tendency towards a rise, the incidence of mumps and tuberculosis showed a tendency towards a decline (all P<0.05), and scarlet fever remained at a low-level incidence (P>0.05). Respiratory infectious diseases were mainly reported in winter (January, February and December), with 14 644 cases accounting for 46.77%. There were 15 068 cases reported in schools and kindergartens, accounting for 48.12%. The incidence showed a U-shaped variation with age, with the highest incidence in residents at ages of 10 years and below (987.68/105), and showing a tendency towards a rise in residents at ages of 60 years and above. @*@#The incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Huzhou City from 2017 to 2022 increased significantly. Influenza, tuberculosis, COVID-19, mumps and pertussis are key notifiable respiratory infectious diseases. Residents at ages of 10 years and below and 60 years and above should be given a high priority for respiratory infectious disease control.

Epidemiological trend analysis of liver cancer incidence in Luzhou City， Sichuan Province from 2016 to 2022 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological distribution and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016‒2022， and to provide a theoretical basis for improving liver cancer prevention and treatment strategies in Luzhou. MethodsData on liver cancer incidence among Luzhou residents from 2016 to 2022 were collected， and the incidence rate， age-specific incidence rate， and annual percentage change （APC） were calculated. A Joinpoint regression model was used to fit a time series segment to the monthly number of new cases in each district and county of Luzhou to explore the trend of liver cancer incidence rate. ResultsThe incidence rate of liver cancer in Luzhou increased from 22.96/105 in 2016 to 32.31/105 in 2022. The incidence rate of liver cancer in men was higher than that in women in both 2016 and 2022， and the incidence rate of liver cancer in men increased from 34.83/105 in 2016 to 47.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.3%； the incidence rate of liver cancer in women increased from 10.50/105 in 2016 to 15.95/105 in 2022， with an APC of 3.0%， and the differences in the change trends were not statistically significant （P>0.05）.The incidence of liver cancer was low in the age group of 0‒<40 years from 2016 to 2022 and increased with age； the incidence of liver cancer in the age group of 55 years and above was increasing at an average annual rate of 16.4%. ConclusionThe overall incidence of liver cancer in Luzhou is on the rise， and the incidence of liver cancer in men is higher than that in women. Middle-aged and elderly men are the key population for liver cancer prevention and treatment， and liver cancer prevention and treatment should be carried out in a targeted manner， taking into account regional development differences.

Factores sociodemográficos en la dinámica del comportamiento delictivo: análisis descriptivo de criminalidad en Colombia, año 2022 / Socio-demographic factors in the dynamics of criminal behaviour: descriptive analysis of criminality in Colombia, year 2022 / Fatores sociodemográficos na dinâmica do comportamento criminal: análise descritiva da criminalidade na Colômbia, ano de 2022

El presente estudio de carácter descriptivo y analítico tiene como objetivo principal presentar el comportamiento criminal en Colombia para el 2022, desde un enfoque cuantitativo empleado para la extracción, análisis e interpretación de los registros administrativos del Sistema de Información Estadístico, Delincuencial, Contravencional y Operativo (SIEDCO), constituyéndose como un insumo para aquellos interesados en el estudio de la dinámica criminal, así como para quienes se encargan de diseñar estrategias para la contención del delito y la generación de política pública en materia de seguridad. En este sentido y en el marco de las dinámicas sociodemográficas, en una primera parte se aborda de manera general el proceso de homogenización de los registros administrativos llevado a cabo por la Policía Nacional y la Fiscalía General de la Nación. Y en una segunda parte, con especial énfasis en el homicidio intencional, se presenta el análisis de la información que permitió identificar las principales variables que influyen en la comisión del delito, de acuerdo con las cifras contenidas en el SIEDCO, en el periodo comprendido entre el 1 de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2022, comparado con la misma temporalidad del 2021, en el que se detallan los delitos que afectan la integridad personal y el patrimonio económico de quienes habitan el territorio colombiano; se hallaron incrementos considerables en estos y se resaltan los factores de oportunidad para su comisión, situación contraria a la que se evidenció sobre las afectaciones a la vida y la integridad, conjunto de conductas que, según lo registrado, decrecieron en el periodo analizado. Finalmente, se ofrece un aporte a la contención desde la actividad de policía y una serie de conclusiones que permitan ampliar la visión sobre los diversos fenómenos y enriquecer la generación de conocimiento en el campo de la criminología.

The main objective of this descriptive and analytical study is to present criminal behaviour in Colombia for 2022, from a quantitative approach used for the extraction, analysis and interpretation of the administrative records of the Statistical, Criminal, Contraventional and Operational Information System (SIEDCO), constituting an input for those interested in the study of criminal dynamics, as well as for those responsible for designing strategies for the containment of crime and the generation of public policy on security. In this sense, and within the framework of socio-demographic dynamics, the first part of the paper deals in a general way with the process of homogenisation of administrative records carried out by the National Police and the Attorney General's Office. The second part, with special emphasis on intentional homicide, presents the analysis of the information that made it possible to identify the main variables that influence the commission of the crime, according to the figures contained in SIEDCO, in the period between 1 January and 31 December 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, in which the crimes that affect the personal integrity and economic patrimony of those who live in Colombian territory are detailed; considerable increases were found in these and the factors of opportunity for their commission are highlighted, contrary to the situation that was evidenced in the affectations to life and integrity, a group of conducts that, according to what was recorded, decreased in the period analysed. Finally, we offer a contribution to containment from the police activity and a series of conclusions that allow us to broaden the vision of the diverse phenomena and enrich the generation of knowledge in the field of criminology.

O principal objetivo deste estudo descritivo e analítico é apresentar o comportamento criminal na Colômbia para 2022, a partir de uma abordagem quantitativa utilizada para a extração, análise e interpretação dos registros administrativos do Sistema de Informação Estatística, Criminal, Contravencional e Operacional (SIEDCO), constituindo um insumo para os interessados no estudo da dinâmica criminal, bem como para os responsáveis pela elaboração de estratégias para a contenção do crime e a geração de políticas públicas de segurança. Nesse sentido, e dentro da estrutura da dinâmica sociodemográfica, a primeira parte do artigo trata de forma geral do processo de homogeneização dos registros administrativos realizado pela Polícia Nacional e pela Procuradoria Geral da República. A segunda parte, com ênfase especial no homicídio doloso, apresenta a análise das informações que permitiram identificar as principais variáveis que influenciam o cometimento do crime, de acordo com os números contidos no SIEDCO, no período entre 1º de janeiro e 31 de dezembro de 2022, em comparação com o mesmo período de 2021, no qual são detalhados os crimes que afetam a integridade pessoal e o patrimônio econômico daqueles que vivem em território colombiano; Neles foram encontrados aumentos consideráveis e são destacados os fatores de oportunidade para seu cometimento, ao contrário da situação que se evidenciou nas afetações à vida e à integridade, grupo de condutas que, segundo o que foi registrado, diminuiu no período analisado. Finalmente, oferecemos uma contribuição para a contenção da atividade policial e uma série de conclusões que nos permitem ampliar a visão dos diversos fenômenos e enriquecer a geração de conhecimento no campo da criminologia.

Distribución espacial y tendencia secular (1991-2014) de nacidos pequeños para la edad gestacional en Jujuy / Spatial distribution and secular trend (1991­2014) of small for gestational age infants born in Jujuy

Introducción. El feto que no alcanza el potencial de crecimiento esperado en el útero se considera pequeño para la edad gestacional (PEG). Esta restricción depende de factores genéticos y/o ambientales; la altura geográfica es uno muy relevante. Este trabajo analiza la distribución espacial de las prevalencias de PEG y su tendencia secular en Jujuy (1991-2014). Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los registros de 308 469 nacidos vivos de Jujuy (Dirección de Estadísticas e Información de Salud). Se estimaron prevalencias de PEG (peso/edad gestacional

Introduction. A fetus that does not reach the expected growth potential in utero is considered small for gestational age (SGA). Such restriction depends on genetic and/or environmental factors, being altitude a very relevant factor. This study analyzes the spatial distribution of the prevalence of SGA and its secular trend in Jujuy (1991­2014). Materials and methods. The records of 308 469 live births in Jujuy (Health Statistics and Information Department) were analyzed. The prevalence of SGA (weight/gestational age < P10 and < P3) was estimated for sex according to the INTERGROWTH-21 st standard in the ecoregions of Jujuy (Valle and Ramal ­less than 2000 MASL­, Puna, and Quebrada) across 3 periods (1991­2000, 2001­2009, 2010­2014) and proportions were compared. The secular trend was assessed using the Joinpoint regression analysis. Results. The overall prevalence of SGA was 2.3% (< P3) and 7% (< P10). Significantly higher values were observed in Puna and Quebrada in both SGA categories and across all periods. Only in Valle, significant differences were observed between sexes across all periods. The prevalence of SGA showed a significant downward secular trend at a provincial and regional level, and this was greater in Quebrada (5.2% < P3 and 3.5% < P10). Conclusions. A consistent and significant decrease in the prevalence of SGA has been observed since the 1990s in Jujuy, where altitude is itself a determining factor of size at birth, since the Puna and Quebrada regions showed the highest prevalence of SGA during the entire period.

Three years of COVID-19 pandemic: comparative analysis of incidence, lethality and mortality among the States of the south region of Brazil / Três anos de pandemia da COVID-19: análise comparativa da incidência, letalidade e mortalidade entre os Estados da região sul do Brasi

Introduction: the first COVID-19 case in Brazil was confirmed on February 26, 2020. As of March 17, 2023, the Ministry of Health reported 699,634 deaths from COVID-19, with a case fatality rate of 1.9%. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil extends to socioeconomic and healthcare systems, reflecting significant regional disparities. Objective: To analyze mortality, incidence, and case fatality rates for COVID-19 in the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, in the southern region of Brazil. Methods: This is an ecological time-series study using official Brazilian secondary data for COVID-19 cases and deaths. Data were extracted from the dashboard of the State Health Department of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Temporal series were developed for trend analysis using the Prais-Winsten regression model. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA 14.0 software (College Station, TX, USA, 2013). Results: In the analysis of rates over the entire period, trends for mortality, case fatality, and incidence in the state of Santa Catarina are decreasing, decreasing, and stationary, respectively. In Paraná, rates over the entire period showed a stationary trend for mortality, decreasing for case fatality, and increasing for incidence. Conclusion: COVID-19 had a devastating effect on the states of Santa Catarina and Paraná. Both states experienced the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, with higher case fatality and mortality rates observed in Paraná, while Santa Catarina had a higher incidence rate over the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tends of "Zero-dose" children aged 12-23 months in Togo from 2000 to 2017 and predictions for 2030

Guided by the principle of leaving no one behind by improving equitable access and use of new and existing vaccines, the Immunization Agenda 2030 aims, among other things, to halve the incidence of "zero-dose" at the national level. This study aimed at studying the tends of the prevalence of "zerodose" children from 2000 to 2017 and making predictions for 2030. The study consisted of secondary data analyses from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Togo. The study population consisted of children aged 12-23 months surveyed during MICS2 in 2000, MICS3 in 2006, MICS4 in 2010 and MICS6 in 2017. The dependent variable was the "zero-dose" vaccination status (1=Yes vs 0=No). The explanatory variables were related to the child, mother, household and environment. The study generated the overall annual percentage changes (APC) and by the independent variables. As a result, the prevalence of children with "zero-dose" expected for 2030 was estimated using Excel 2013 and Stata 16.0 software. In total, 636, 864, 916 and 952 children aged 12-23 months were included for MICS2, MICS3, MICS4 and MICS7, respectively. The prevalence of "zerodose" children decreased from 37.15% in 2000 to 31.72% in 2006, then 30.10% in 2010 and 26.86% in 2017, with an overall APC= - 1.89%. The highest relative annual decrease was from 2000 to 2006. If the historical rate of decrease remains unchanged, we predict that percentage of "zero-dose" children aged 12-23 months will be 20.96% in 2030, with a decrease of 22% compared to 2017, against a target of 50%. We suggest that strengthening strategies to increase full immunization coverage of children will contribute to reducing the percentage of zero dose children. A prerequisite will be a better understanding of the predictors of the "zero-dose" phenomenon in children

Increase in mucormycosis hospitalizations in southeastern Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic: a 2010-2021 time series

ABSTRACT Background: Mucormycosis is a severe invasive fungal disease. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, outbreaks have been reported worldwide, but epidemiological studies are still scarce in Brazil. Methods: We conducted a time-series cohort hospitalization study (2010-2021) in southeastern Brazil. Results: There were 311 cases (85 during the pandemic), with significant (P < 0.05) involvement of patients older than 40 years (84%), white patients (78%), rhinocerebral site (63%), and São Paulo State residents (84%). Conclusions: Mucormycosis hospitalizations were highly prevalent. Further studies are needed to assess the burden of COVID-19 on mucormycosis in Brazil.

Analysis on the trends of incidence and age change for global female breast cancer / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective: To analyze the trends of incidence and age change for global female breast cancer in different regions of the world according to the database from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends (CI5plus) published by the International Association of Cancer Registries (IACR). Methods: The recorded annual female breast cancer (ICD-10: C50) incidence data and corresponding population at-risk data (1998-2012) were extracted from CI5plus published by IACR. The annual change percentage and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated to examine the trends of incidence. The age-standardized mean age at diagnosis and proportion of incidence cases by age were calculated to analyze the relationship between incidence and age. Results: For crude incidence, except in Northern America, all other regions showed an upward trend, with Asia showing the most obvious upward trend (AAPC: 4.1%, 95% CI: 3.9%, 4.3%). For age-standardized incidence, in Asia, Latin America and Europe, the rising trends had slowed down, in Oceania and Africa, the trends began to be stable, and in Northern America, the trend showed a downward trend (APPC: -0.6%; 95% CI: -1.0%, -0.1%). The mean age at diagnosis were increased from 1998 to 2012 in Asia, Latin America, Oceania and Europe, with an annual increase of 0.12 years, 0.09 years, 0.04 years and 0.03 years, respectively. But after age-standardized, only Europe still kept increasing year by year, with an annual increase of 0.02 years, while Northern America showed a decreasing trend, with an annual decrease of about 0.03 years. Conclusions: From 1998 to 2012, the trends of incidence and age change for global female breast cancer vary in different regions of the world, and the global population aging is widespread, which affects the trend of the actual age change. Prevention and control strategies should be targeted at different age groups in different regions.

Death Trend of Lung Cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer death rate in China from 2006 to 2020 to provide reference for the prevention of lung cancer. Methods The data of Chinese lung cancer deaths from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the health statistical yearbook.The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to evaluate the age, period, and birth cohort effect of lung cancer deaths. Results The overall lung cancer mortality of Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2020.The age effect of lung cancer death risk increased with age, and the period effect continued to increase with age.The cohort effect showed that the lung cancer death risk of residents born after 1924 showed a downward trend. Conclusion The prevention and treatment of lung cancer in urban and rural residents aged 50 and above and the treatment of high-risk factors of lung cancer must be continuously strengthened.The period effect on lung cancer should be further explored, and the early intervention of young cohort should be given attention.

Global disease burden of neonatal jaundice from 1990 to 2019 / 中国当代儿科杂志

OBJECTIVES@#To examine the global, regional, and national disease burden of neonatal jaundice.@*METHODS@#The 2019 Global Burden of Disease database was searched to collect incident cases/incidence and deaths/mortality of neonatal jaundice, as well as global socio-demographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI). The epidemiological trend of neonatal jaundice from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The correlations between incidence/mortality of neonatal jaundice and SDI and UHCI were evaluated.@*RESULTS@#From 601 681 in 1990 to 626 005 in 2019, with a 4.04% increase in global incident cases of neonatal jaundice. The overall age-standardized incidence rate exhibited an increase [estimated annual percent change=0.13 (95%CI: 0.03 to 0.23)] during this period. Additionally, deaths due to neonatal jaundice decreased by 58.83%, from 128 119 in 1990 to 52 742 in 2019. The overall age-standardized mortality rate showed a decrease [estimated annual percent change=-2.78 (95%CI: -3.00 to -2.57)] over the same period. Countries with lower SDI, such as India, Pakistan, and Nigeria, reported a higher proportion of neonatal morbidity and mortality. In 2019, a negative correlation was observed between estimated annual percent change in age-standardized mortality rate and SDI (ρ=-0.320, P<0.05) or UHCI (ρ=-0.252, P<0.05).@*CONCLUSIONS@#The global incidence of neonatal jaundice is on the rise, while the mortality rate is declining. The burden of neonatal jaundice is influenced by social development, economic factors, and the level of medical care.

Change trend and prediction of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou in 2001-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.

Trends in incidence of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2020 / 预防医学

Objective@#To investigate the trends in incidence of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2015 to 2020, so as to provide the evidence for improving the control strategy for malignant tumors. @*Methods@#Data on incidence of malignant tumors in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2020 were collected through Hangzhou Municipal Chronic Disease Monitoring Management System. The crude incidence, Chinese population-standardized incidence, world population-standardized incidence, cumulative incidence for 0 to 74 years, and truncated age-standardized incidence for 35 to 64 years of malignant tumors were calculated, and the trends in incidence of malignant tumors were analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC). @*Results@#The crude incidence, Chinese population-standardized incidence, world population-standardized incidence, cumulative incidence for 0 to 74 years, and truncated age-standardized incidence for 35 to 64 years of malignant tumors were 476.95/105, 333.30/105, 257.01/105, 28.30% and 425.79/105 in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2020, which all appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=4.36%, 3.82%, 3.99%, 3.79% and 5.20%, all P<0.05). The crude incidence, Chinese population-standardized incidence, world population-standardized incidence, cumulative incidence for 0 to 74 years, and truncated age-standardized incidence for 35 to 64 years of malignant tumors were 491.47/105, 313.31/105, 251.51/105, 28.78% and 338.82/105 among men, and both the crude incidence and truncated age-standardized incidence for 35 to 64 years appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=3.00% and 1.73%, both P<0.05), while the crude incidence, Chinese population-standardized incidence, world population-standardized incidence, cumulative incidence for 0 to 74 years, and truncated age-standardized incidence for 35 to 64 years of malignant tumors were 462.98/105, 348.46/105, 262.13/105, 27.74% and 504.91/105 among women, which all appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=5.77%, 5.72%, 5.79%, 5.65% and 7.48%, all P<0.05). The incidence of malignant tumors appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and the crude incidence of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a rise among people at ages of 15 to 44 years and 45 to 64 years (AAPC=9.85% and 4.88%, both P<0.05). Lung cancer, thyroid cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer and gastric cancer were the five most common cancers, accounting for 59.63% of all malignant tumors, and the incidence of lung cancer, thyroid cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer all showed a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=5.90%, 13.01%, 4.60% and 4.47%, all P<0.05). @*Conclusions @#The incidence of malignant tumors showed a tendency towards a rise in Xiaoshan District from 2015 to 2020. The rise in the incidence of malignant tumor was higher in females than in males, and malignant tumors tended to develop at a young age. Lung cancer, thyroid cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer and gastric cancer are major malignancies that threaten human health in Xiaoshan District.

Trend in incidence of stroke in Jindong District from 2016 to 2022 / 预防医学

Objective@#To investigate the trends in incidence of stroke in Jindong District, Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2022, so as to provide to the evidence for improving the stroke control strategy.@*Methods@#The incidence of stroke in Jindong District from 2016 to 2022 was collected through the Zhejiang Chronic Disease Monitoring Information System, and standardized by the data of the Chinese National Population Census in 2010. The gender-, age- and subtype-specific incidence of stroke was calculated, and the trends in stroke incidence were investigated with average annual percent change (AAPC).@*Results@#A total of 9 159 stroke cases were reported in Jindong District from 2016 to 2022, with crude incidence of 386.52/105 and standardized incidence of 276.75/105. The crude incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise (AAPC=3.704%, 95%CI: 0.792%-6.700%, P<0.05), while the standardized incidence showed no significant changing patterns (P>0.05). The crude incidence of stroke was significantly higher among men than among women (438.69/105 vs. 334.66/105; χ2=14.028, P<0.05), and the standardized incidence of stroke was significantly higher among men than among women (316.58/105 vs. 237.31/105; χ2=6.985, P<0.05). The crude incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise with age（χ2=5 290.180, P<0.05), and the crude incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a decline with age among residents at ages of 45 to 64 years (AAPC=-9.135%, 95%CI: -15.003% to -2.861%, P<0.05), while no significant changing patterns were found in the crude incidence of stroke among residents at other age groups (P>0.05). The crude incidence of ischemic stroke was significantly higher than that of hemorrhagic stroke (306.08/105 vs. 76.89/105; χ2=137.184, P<0.05).@*Conclusions@#The incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise in Jindong District from 2016 to 2022, with ischemic stroke as the predominant subtype. Male and middle-aged and elderly populations should be given a high priority for stroke control.

Spatial epidemiological analysis of severe hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangxi, 2014-2018 / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　To explore the spatial epidemiological characteristics of severe cases hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangxi, China, from 2014 to 2018, and to provide a basis for identifying the high-risk regions as well as the prevention and control of severe cases of HFMD in Guangxi. Methods　Spatial-temporal scanning analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the spatial clustering of HFMD. The trend surface analysis was used to evaluate the spatial distribution trend of HFMD. Results　From 2014 to 2018, the incidence and severe case fatality rates of HFMD were 3.89/100 000 and 4.23%, respectively. Monte Carlo scanning analysis showed that the first cluster region was Cenxi City, the second cluster was mainly concentrated in northwest of Guangxi, and the aggregation time was mainly concentrated in April to May and August to October. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the severe HFMD was significant clustering distribution, and the Moran's I coefficients of the sever cases, severe morbidity and severe case fatality rate were 0.088, 0.118, 0.197, respectively (P<0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that hotspots of severe HFMD cases were concentrated in the southern Guangxi, mainly in Lingshan County. Anselin local Moran's I clustering and outlier analysis indicated that 5 high-high (H-H) clustering regions for fatality were Lingshan, Pubei, Zhongshan, Zhaoping and Pinggui County. There were 6 high-high (H-H) clustering regions for severe incidence rate, namely Lingshan, Qinnan, Lingyun, Youjiang, Bama Yao Autonomous and Pinggui County, and 1 high-low (H-L) clustering region, Cenxi County. The trend surface analysis showed that the overall number of severe cases of death decreased from east or west to the middle, and increased from north to middle, and then decreased to south. Conclusions　Severe HFMD cases in Guangxi have obvious spatial-temporal clustering, and the hop spots are mainly concentrated in southern Guangxi. The prevention and control of HFMD in areas with high incidence of severe cases should be strengthened to reduce the burden of HFMD cases.

Trend in incidence of stroke in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021 / 预防医学

Objective@#To investigate the trend in incidence of stroke in Nanshan District, Shenzhen City from 2010 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating the integrated strategy for stroke control.@* Methods@#The data of stroke morbidity in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021 were collected through Shenzhen Chronic Disease Prevention and Control Management System. The incidence of stroke was calculated, and standardized by the population of the Chinese Sixth National Census in 2010. The trends in stroke incidence were evaluated in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021 using annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC), and gender-, age- and subtype-specific incidence of stroke was descriptively analyzed. @*Results@#A total of 30 377 cases with stroke were reported in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021, with a crude incidence rate of 190.45/105 and a standardized incidence rate of 405.65/105. The crude incidence rate of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021 (APC=5.38%, t=4.678, P=0.001), and a higher crude incidence rate of stroke was seen among men than among women (227.57/105 vs. 148.40/105; χ2=1 309.580, P<0.001). The incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise with age (χ2trend =435.717, P<0.001), and there was a tendency towards a rise in stroke incidence among residents under 40 years of age (APC=2.89%, t=2.538, P=0.029). The crude incidence of ischemic stroke was 151.24/105, which was higher than that of hemorrhagic stroke (39.21/105) (χ2=10 521.000, P<0.001). @*Conclusions@#The incidence of stroke appeared a tendency towards a rise in Nanshan District from 2010 to 2021, with ischemic stroke as the predominant subtype of stroke. Males and middle-aged and elderly residents should be given a high priority for stroke prevention and treatment.