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Aims: The persistence of rice blast, caused by the fungus Magnaporthe oryzae, continues to pose a significant threat to rice production worldwide, impacting both yields and food security. The primary goal of this study is to apply interval-valued independent weather data to accurately model the dependent variable of percentage disease incidence.Study Design: In this paper, we present a detailed study on forecasting rice blast outbreaks through the application of Average method, Center method and Min Max method using interval valued weather data and percentage disease incidence.Place and Duration of Study: The blast disease data include percent disease incidence (PDI) collected at the Paddy Breeding Station (PBS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, from 2018 to 2021.And Weather variables includes the following: Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, Relative humidity (morning), Relative humidity (evening) from 2018 to 2021.Methodology: The available interval weather parameter data and disease incidence data are utilized to fit a regression model, specifically employing simple linear regression and multiple linear regression, in the R version 4.3.0.Results: Upon analyzing various methods, it is evident that the variables of Minimum temperature exhibit a significant relationship with a high level of significance, indicating a significance level at P 0.001.Conclusion: Minimum temperature shows more contribution in disease incidence followed by relative humidity at evening.
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Objective:Delphi method and weighted average method are used to establish the evaluation index system of basic and clinical scientific research projects respectively, to provide support for screening high-quality projects, to avoid the disadvantages of " one size fits all" , and promote the transformation of project management from quantity and restatement to quality and results, in order to release the innovative vitality of talents and produce more high-quality results.Methods:Using the methods of literature review and expert interview, form the questionnaire of evaluation indicators for the conclusion of basic and clinical scientific research projects, then carry out two rounds of expert consultation with Delphi method, evaluate the authority of experts with authority coefficient, form the second round of questionnaire after analysis and discussion according to the results from the first round of expert consultation, screen and determine the evaluation indicators again in the same way. After two rounds of discussion, the evaluation index system of basic and clinical scientific research projects was developed, and the weighted average method and product method were used to calculate the weight and combination weight.Results:After two rounds of consultation, the evaluation index system for the conclusion of basic scientific research projects was finally established, with 2 first-class indicators, 12 second-class indicators and 33 third-class indicators, and the evaluation index system for the conclusion of clinical scientific research projects had 2 first-class indicators, 10 second-class indicators and 33 third-class indicators. In the second round, the authority coefficient of basic and clinical experts was 0.8, indicating that the authority of experts in this study was high. 29 basic and clinical projects concluded from 2018 to 2020 were selected to verify the index system.Conclusions:The index system formed in this study will be used to classify and evaluate the conclusion evaluation of basic scientific research projects and clinical scientific research projects. In the next step, the weight of the index system will be adjusted to make it more realistic and highlight high-quality achievements, guide the project leader to pay more attention to quality and results, and conduct follow-up evaluation at different stages.
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Purpose: A statistical assessment of a disease is often necessary before resources can be allocated to any control programme. No literature on seasonal trends of gonorrhoea is available from India. Objectives: The objectives were (1) to determine, if any, seasonal trends were present in India (2) to describe factors contributing to seasonality of gonorrhoea (3) to formulate approaches for gonorrhoea control at the national level. Materials and Methods: Seasonal indices for gonorrhoea were calculated quarterly in terms of a seasonal index between 2005 and 2010. Ratio-to-moving average method was used to determine the seasonal variation. The original data values in the time-series were expressed as percentages of moving averages. Results were also analyzed by second statistical method i.e. seasonal subseries plot. Results: The seasonally adjusted average for culture-positive gonorrhoea cases was highest in the second quarter (128.61%) followed by third quarter (108.48%) while a trough was observed in the first (96.05%) and last quarter (64.85%). The second quarter peak was representative of summer vacations in schools and colleges. Moreover, April is the harvesting month followed by celebrations and social gatherings. Both these factors are associated with increased sexual activity and partner change. A trough in first and last quarter was indicative of festival season and winter leading to less patients reporting to the hospital. Conclusion: The findings highlight the immediate need to strengthen sexual health education among young people in schools and colleges and education on risk-reduction practices especially at crucial points in the calendar year for effective gonorrhoea control.
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Objective To discuss the feasibility of moving average method (X‐B method) in the quality control of coagulation function measurement .Methods Fluctuation average value tendency of prothrombin time (PT ) ,activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) ,thrombin time (TT) and fibrinogen (FIB) of clinical specimen ,detected by using Stago Compact analyzes ,were ana‐lyzed ,and compared cryochemic plasma method .Results Average value of PT ,APTT ,TT and FIB changed in small ranges .Tend‐ency of quality control chart of X‐B method and cryochemic plasma method were basically consistent .Conclusion X‐B method ,u‐sing plasma of patients ,could be used for the quality control of PT ,APTT ,TT and FIB examination and for the monitoring of the stability of analyzers .
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Chinese materia medica (CMM) has the great economic value in modern society, which depends on its industrialization. And the development of industrialization needs the protection of intellectual property rights. This paper built the evaluation index system of intellectual property of CMM including 6 first class indicators, 15 second class indicators, and 18 third class indicators. Then we used the standard deviation method to determine the weight of each evaluation index and evaluated the intellectual property of CMM from 2004 to 2013 in China by weighted average method. The results showed that, the intellectual property of CMM was in a steady growth trend in 2004-2013. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions have been put forward from the government, enterprises, and research staffs.
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OBJECTIVE:To provide a method for a scientific and rational formation of hospital drug purchase plan.METHODS:Based on the major factors influencing the drug purchase plans,a moving-average method(mathematical principle)was used to establish computational formula for hospital drug purchase plan model,which was then put into practice.RESULTS:The predicted amount calculated using the computation model could be used to track the actual consumption quantity rapidly;this model could auto-adjust the inventory and dynamically forecast the drug purchase amount.CONCLUSION:The computation model contributes to the scientific and reasonable formation of hospital drug purchase plan thus meeting the needs of majority clinical drugs.