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Abstract Adolescent fertility -fertility rates at ages 15-19- fell substantially (around 30 percent) between 2000 and 2010. It was the first time Brazil experienced such a decline in those ages since 1970, when the census included one question about children born in the past 12 months. This phenomenon has an important implication for the P/F Brass ratio technique: it underestimates the cumulated current fertility up to age group 20-24 (F2), considering this cohort's previous fertility experience. Therefore, the P2/F2 value, used as an adjustment factor for the reported fertility level, is significantly overestimated. This paper discusses this issue and proposes an alternative to correct the reference period error in the 2010 Demographic Census in Brazil. The results of applying the proposed alternative in this specific context were very similar to those obtained using different techniques, thus supporting the strength of our alternative.
Resumo O Brasil experimentou, entre 2000 e 2010, pela primeira vez desde 1970, quando se introduziu o quesito sobre filhos nascidos vivos nos 12 meses anteriores à data de referência do censo, queda significativa (em torno de 30%) das taxas específicas de fecundidade declarada das mulheres entre 15 e 19 anos (f*1). Esse fenômeno tem uma importante consequência para a aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass: gera um erro, por falta, na fecundidade corrente acumulada até o grupo etário de 20 a 24 anos (F2), se tomada como experiência pregressa dessa coorte, levando a um valor de P2/F2, usado para ajustar o nível da fecundidade declarada, significativamente sobrestimado. O presente trabalho discute detalhadamente este problema e, por fim, propõe uma alternativa para se corrigir o erro de período de referência da fecundidade corrente do Censo Demográfico de 2010 do Brasil. A alternativa proposta, neste contexto específico, gerou estimativas de taxa de fecundidade total muito próximas às produzidas por outras técnicas.
Resumen Por la primera vez desde 1970 —cuando se introdujo la pregunta sobre nacidos vivos en los 12 meses anteriores a la fecha de referencia del censo— Brasil experimentó, entre 2000 y 2010, una disminución significativa de aproximadamente 30% de las tasas específicas de fecundidad declarada de mujeres entre 15 y 19 años (f*1). Este fenómeno trae una consecuencia importante para la aplicación de la técnica P/F de Brass: genera un error por falta en la fecundidad actual acumulada para el grupo de edad de 20 a 24 años (F2), lo que concomitantemente provoca una significativa sobrestimación en el valor de P2/F2 —utilizado para corregir el nivel de la fecundidad declarada—. Este trabajo discute este problema y propone finalmente una adaptación de la técnica original de Brass para aplicarla a los datos del censo de 2010. La alternativa propuesta generó, en este contexto específico, estimaciones de la tasa global de fecundidad similares a las producidas por otras técnicas.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Demografía , Tasa de Natalidad , Adolescente , Censos , Fertilidad , Brasil , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Nacimiento VivoRESUMEN
A study was conducted in Wenchi Municipality in the forest/savanna transitional agroecological zone of Ghana to analyze the past and present cropping systems and to identify the key drivers responsible for the shift. We used key informant and semistructured interviews, focus group discussions and field observations for data collection. Historical analyses of the present and past cropping systems indicated that over the past forty years, there has been a shift from cocoa based to maize based cropping system. The shift in the cropping system was prompted by decline in the yield of cocoa and the difficulty in establishing new cocoa farms as a result of changing rainfall pattern, frequent bushfires and increase in the dry season. Other factors attributed to the shift by farmers included land tenure, soil fertility decline and vegetation change. Strategies being used by farmers to adapt to the changing climate and variability include planting of drought tolerant crops such as cassava, yam and maize and adjusting planting dates of crops to coincide with the onset of the rains. The study indicates that future shift in cropping system from maize to cocoa-based system is unlikely due to deforestation activities and the prevailing climatic conditions.
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Bangladesh has experienced a rapid decline in fertility in the past several decades, facilitated by proactive population policies, provision of contraceptives, and broader societal shifts, encouraging smaller families and use of contraceptive to achieve revised childbearing norms. This paper presents 18 years of data from the Sample Registration System, a demographic surveillance system operated by the Maternal and Child Health–Family Planning Extension Project in six study areas in Bangladesh. Prospective measurements of women’s fertility preferences were used for classifying nearly 25,000 birth outcomes from 1983 to 2000 as intended, unintended, or ‘up to God/Allah’. Over the 18-year period, the level of unintended births varied from 22% to 38%, with the lowest levels in the mid-1990s. Fatalistic responses declined significantly from 25% in the mid-1980s to 1% by the late 1990s. Results of the comparison of two geographic areas of Bangladesh indicate differential declines in the levels of unintended pregnancies over the study period. Prospective measurements of unintended pregnancies were 2-3 times the magnitude indicated by retrospective estimates of unwanted births from the demographic and health surveys conducted during the study period. This unique dataset provides a rare opportunity to visualize the vast changes in fertility preferences and unintended births in Bangladesh from 1983 to 2000. Significant declines in fatalistic responses reflect broader social changes that occurred in Bangladesh to facilitate the fertility decline and contraceptive uptake. The drastic differences between prospective and retrospective measurements of fertility preferences highlight the importance of considering the strengths and limitations of each method when attempting to estimate the true level of unintended pregnancies and births in a population.
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This paper aimed to examine the debate over the fertility decline in the German Empire, focusing on the role of the SPD. During the German Empire, the fertility rate dramatically declined and the growing awareness of a continuous decline in the birth rate prompted a massive debate among politicians, doctors, sociologists, and feminist activists. The fertility decline was negatively evaluated and generated consciousness of crisis. However, it was not the only way to face this new phenomenon. Indeed, the use of birth control among the upper class was interpreted as a part of a modernizing process. As the same phenomenon reached the working class, it suddenly became a social problem and was attributed to the SPD. The debate over the fertility decline in imperial German society ridden with a fierce class conflict was developed into a weapon against the SPD. Contrary to the assumption of conservative politicians, the SPD had no clear-cut position on this issue. Except for a few politicians like Kautsky and the doctors who came into frequent contact with the workers, the "birth strike" was not listed as the main interest of the SPD. Even Clara Zetkin, the leader of the Social Democratic women's organization viewed it as a concern of the individual person which could not be incorporated in the party program. The women's organization of the SPD put priority on class conflict rather than issues specific to women. As a result, the debate over the birth rate decline within the SPD was not led by the women themselves. There could have been various means to stimulate the birth rate. Improvement in the welfare system, such as tax relief for large families, better housing conditions, and substantial maternity protection, could have been feasible solutions to the demographic crisis. However, Germany chose to respond to this crisis by imposing legal sanctions against birth control. In addition to paragraphs 218-220 of the German criminal law enacted in 1872 which prescribed penal servitude for anyone who had an abortion or people who helped to practice it, Paragraph 184.3 of the civil code was enacted in order to outlaw the advertising, display, and publicizing of contraceptives with an 'indecent' intention, although selling or manufacturing contraceptives was not forbidden. Such a punitive approach was especially preferred by the government and conservative parties because it was easy to implement and "cheap" in comparison with the comprehensive social welfare program. What made the SPD different from other conservative parties was the fact that the SPD opposed the government's attempt to prohibit contraception by means of strengthening a penal code. According to the SPD, it was not only morally unacceptable, but also technically impossible for the government to intervene in family limitation. Moreover, politicians from the SPD criticized that such a punitive policy targeted the working class because the upper echelon of the society could easily evade the ban on contraceptives. However, the SPD did not proceed to draft comprehensive social welfare measures in order to fight the fertility decline. The miserable condition of working class women remained as an invisible social phenomenon even within the SPD. The German women who could not find the proper means to practice contraception were driven to have abortions. Annually, hundreds of the women were accused of practicing abortion and imprisoned. In sum, German society ran about in confusion and did not know how to properly respond to the unprecedented decline in fertility. By defining the fertility decline just as a social disease due to moral decay and influence of socialism, German society lost a chance to rationalize itself. Given that women, the main actors, had no way to take part in the debate over this issue, it is not surprising that German society fought against the symptom of the disease, not against its root.