Ajuste fino de un modelo de producción vocal para estimar el estrés de impacto utilizando un método metaheurístico

Introducción: En modelos de producción vocal que emplean estructuras de resorte-masa-amortiguador, la precisión en la determinación de coeficientes de amortiguamiento que se asemejen a las características fisiológicas de las cuerdas vocales es crucial, teniendo en cuenta posibles variaciones en la representación de la viscoelasticidad. Objetivo: Este estudio tiene como objetivo realizar un ajuste paramétrico de un modelo de producción vocal basado en un sistema de resorte-masa-amortiguador que incorpora interacción con la presión subglótica, con el fin de modelar de manera precisa las fuerzas de colisión ejercidas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación. Método: Se utilizó un algoritmo de búsqueda metaheurística para la síntesis paramétrica. El algoritmo se aplicó a los coeficientes de elasticidad c1 y c2, así como a los coeficientes de amortiguamiento ε1 y ε2, que se correlacionan directamente con las matrices de masa del modelo. Esto facilita el ajuste de la composición de las cuerdas para lograr un comportamiento fisiológico deseado. Resultados: El comportamiento del sistema vocal para cada ciclo de simulación se comparó con un estándar predefinido en condiciones normales. El algoritmo determinó el punto final de la simulación evaluando las discrepancias entre características clave de las señales obtenidas y las deseadas. Conclusión: El ajuste paramétrico permitió la aproximación del comportamiento fisiológico de la producción vocal, proporcionando estimaciones de las fuerzas de impacto experimentadas por las cuerdas vocales durante la fonación.

Introduction: In vocal production models employing spring-mass-damper frameworks, precision in determining damping coefficients that align with physiological vocal fold characteristics is crucial, accounting for potential variations in the representation of viscosity-elasticity properties. Objective: This study aims to conduct a parametric fitting of a vocal production model based on a mass-spring-damper system incorporating subglottic pressure interaction, with the purpose of accurately modeling the collision forces exerted by vocal folds during phonation. Method: A metaheuristic search algorithm was employed for parametric synthesis. The algorithm was applied to elasticity coefficients c1 and c2, as well as damping coefficients ε1 and ε2, which directly correlate with the mass matrices of the model. This facilitates the adjustment of fold composition to achieve desired physiological behavior. Results: The vocal system's behavior for each simulation cycle was compared to a predefined standard under normal conditions. The algorithm determined the simulation endpoint by evaluating discrepancies between key features of the obtained signals and the desired ones. Conclusion: Parametric fitting enabled the approximation of physiological vocal production behavior, providing estimates of the impact forces experienced by vocal folds during phonation.

La orientación vocacional en la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar

La investigación se dirigió a resolver insuficiencias teóricas y metodológicas, relacionadas con la orientación vocacional hacia la carrera de Cultura Física, en el proceso formativo del estudiante preuniversitario de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar, pues el modelo de bachiller en este tipo de centros establece la necesidad de lograr una sólida preparación integral en los estudiantes, desde la formación docente y deportiva. Se planteó como objetivo elaborar una estrategia, sustentada en un modelo pedagógico, que contribuya a la orientación vocacional de los estudiantes preuniversitarios de la Escuela de Iniciación Deportiva Escolar hacia la carrera de Cultura Física. La población estuvo conformada por 102 estudiantes de décimo grado y 72 profesores. Se emplearon métodos y técnicas científicas como el histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, inductivo-deductivo, sistémico-estructural-funcional, modelación, observación participante y estructurada, análisis de documentos, evaluación por criterio de expertos, encuesta, talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, además de los métodos matemático-estadísticos. Los fundamentos del modelo pedagógico propiciaron resolver la contradicción entre las exigencias del modelo ideal explícito en los Programas Integrales de Preparación para el Deportista y las limitaciones de los profesores para desarrollar la orientación vocacional hacia esta Carrera. El modelo y la estrategia fueron sometidos a valoración, mediante criterio de expertos y ciclos de talleres de opinión crítica y construcción colectiva, los resultados permitieron confirmar transformaciones positivas en el tratamiento a la orientación vocacional del estudiante preuniversitario hacia la carrera de Cultura Física.

A pesquisa teve como objetivo solucionar insuficiências teóricas e metodológicas relacionadas à orientação vocacional para uma carreira na Cultura Física, no processo formativo do aluno pré-universitário da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva Escolar, uma vez que o modelo de bacharelado nesse tipo de centro estabelece a necessidade de alcançar uma sólida preparação integral nos alunos, a partir do ensino e do treinamento esportivo. O objetivo foi elaborar uma estratégia, baseada em um modelo pedagógico, que contribuísse para a orientação vocacional dos alunos pré-universitários da Escola de Iniciação Esportiva para uma carreira na Cultura Física. A população foi composta por 102 alunos da décima série e 72 professores. Foram utilizados métodos e técnicas científicos, tais como histórico-lógico, analítico-sintético, indutivo-dedutivo, sistêmico-estrutural-funcional, modelagem, observação participante e estruturada, análise de documentos, avaliação por critérios de especialistas, pesquisa, oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, além de métodos matemático-estatísticos. Os fundamentos do modelo pedagógico ajudaram a resolver a contradição entre as exigências do modelo ideal explícito nos Programas Integrais de Preparação do Atleta e as limitações dos professores no desenvolvimento da orientação vocacional para essa carreira. O modelo e a estratégia foram submetidos à avaliação, por meio de critérios de especialistas e ciclos de oficinas de opinião crítica e construção coletiva, e os resultados permitiram confirmar transformações positivas no tratamento da orientação vocacional do aluno pré-universitário para a carreira da Cultura Física.

The research was aimed at resolving theoretical and methodological insufficiencies, related to the vocational orientation towards the Physical Culture career, in the training process of the pre-university student of the School Sports Initiation School, since the high school model in this type of centers establishes the need to achieve a solid comprehensive preparation in students, from teaching and sports training. The objective was to develop a strategy, supported by a pedagogical model, that contributes to the vocational orientation of pre-university students from the School of School Sports Initiation Schools towards the Physical Culture career. The population was made up of 102 tenth grade students and 72 teachers. Scientific methods and techniques were used such as historical-logical, analytical-synthetic, inductive-deductive, systemic-structural-functional, modeling, participant and structured observation, document analysis, evaluation by expert criteria, survey, critical opinion workshops and collective construction, in addition to mathematical-statistical methods. The foundations of the pedagogical model helped resolve the contradiction between the demands of the ideal model explicit in the Comprehensive Preparation Programs for Athletes and the limitations of teachers to develop vocational orientation towards this Career. The model and strategy were subjected to evaluation, through expert criteria and cycles of critical opinion and collective construction workshops, the results allowed confirming positive transformations in the treatment of the vocational orientation of the pre-university student towards the Physical Culture career.

La táctica como fundamento esencial en el proceso de preparación del futbolista

El fútbol es un deporte de oposición, cooperación, donde se interrelacionan las estructuras y las funciones específicas que lo rigen, de carácter eminentemente táctico y de ahí la necesidad que tienen los jugadores de relacionarse para organizarse colectivamente con eficacia en las situaciones ofensivas, defensivas, y las transiciones de ambas acciones, las cuales van a surgir el resto de capacidades técnicas, físicas, de teóricas y psicológicas según las necesidades de la idea de juego. Esta investigación, enmarcada en el proceso de preparación táctica de la selección provincial de fútbol de mayores de Pinar del Río, tuvo objetivo determinar el estado en que se encuentra la preparación táctica de los jugadores según el modelo de juego planificado para enfrentar el torneo nacional y definir la metodología de entrenamiento sustentada en los sistemas modernos de preparación fundamentado en el componente táctico como dimensión rectora en el proceso. Con la utilización de métodos teóricos, empíricos, y de nivel estadístico, se guía todo el proceso de la investigación a través de observaciones a entrenamientos, entrevistas y mediciones del comportamiento táctico en partidos oficiales, con lo cual se pudo corroborar en los resultados alcanzados una serie de insuficiencias y limitaciones tácticas en las dimensiones e indicadores valorados que denota que problemas en la preparación para la competencia.

O futebol é um esporte de oposição, cooperação, onde as estruturas e funções específicas que o regem estão inter-relacionadas, de natureza eminentemente tática e daí a necessidade de os jogadores se relacionarem entre si para se organizarem coletivamente de forma eficaz em situações ofensivas e defensivas, e as transições de ambas as ações, que darão origem ao resto das capacidades técnicas, físicas, teóricas e psicológicas de acordo com as necessidades da ideia de jogo. Esta pesquisa, enquadrada no processo de preparação tática da equipe de futebol sênior provincial de Pinar del Río, teve como objetivo determinar o estado da preparação tática dos jogadores de acordo com o modelo de jogo planejado para enfrentar o torneio nacional e definir a metodologia de treinamento com base nos modernos sistemas de preparação baseados no componente tático como uma dimensão orientadora no processo. Com a utilização de métodos teóricos, empíricos e estatísticos, todo o processo da pesquisa foi orientado por meio de observações em sessões de treinamento, entrevistas e medições do comportamento tático em jogos oficiais, com os quais foi possível corroborar nos resultados alcançados uma série de insuficiências e limitações táticas nas dimensões e indicadores avaliados que denotam problemas na preparação para a competição.

Soccer is a sport of opposition and cooperation, where the specific structures and functions that govern it are interrelated, of an eminently tactical nature and hence the need for players to relate to organize themselves collectively effectively in offensive, defensive, and the transitions of both actions, from which the rest of the technical, physical, theoretical and psychological capacities will emerge according to the needs of the game idea. This research, framed in the tactical preparation process of the provincial senior soccer team of Pinar del Río, had the objective of determining the state of the tactical preparation of the players according to the game model planned to face the national tournament and define the training methodology supported by modern preparation systems based on the tactical component as a guiding dimension in the process. With the use of theoretical, empirical, and statistical methods, the entire research process is guided through observations of training, interviews, and measurements of tactical behavior in official matches, with which it was possible to corroborate in the results achieved a series of insufficiencies and tactical limitations in the valued dimensions and indicators that denote problems in preparation for the competition.

Factores que Afectan la Percepción de Dolor ¿Cómo Influyen en la Toma de Decisiones Clínicas durante el Proceso de Rehabilitación Kinesiológica? / Factors That Affect Pain Perception: How Do They Influence Clinical Decision Making During the Kinesiological Rehabilitation Process?

Introducción. La percepción del dolor es un fenómeno complejo y subjetivo. Comprender los factores que afectan en la percepción del dolor es crucial en el contexto de la toma de decisiones clínicas durante el proceso de rehabilitación kinesiológica. Objetivo. Exponer los factores que afectan la percepción del dolor, desde la perspectiva del modelo biopsicosocial y discutir sus implicancias para la toma de decisiones clínicas. Métodos. Se describen factores que afectan la percepción de dolor, separados en biológicos como la injuria, sexo, genética y edad, psicológicos como creencias, catastrofismo, kinesiofobia, afectividad negativa, calidad de sueño, atención, afrontamiento y autoeficacia; y socio-culturales como soporte social, rol de género, etnia, aculturación y estatus socioeconómico. Luego se discute cómo estos factores impactan en las decisiones clínicas del profesional kinesiólogo. Finalmente, se entregará un análisis de las barreras y facilitadores descritos por la literatura científica respecto al uso del modelo biopsicosocial.

Background. The perception of pain is a complex and subjective phenomenon. Thus, understanding the factors that influence pain perception is crucial in the context of clinical decision-making during the kinesic rehabilitation process. The objective of this article is to expose the factors that affect the perception of pain, from the perspective of the biopsychosocial model and discuss its implications for clinical decision making during this process. Initially, the biological, psychological and sociocultural factors that affect the perception of pain with the greatest presence in the scientific literature are described. It is discussed how these factors impact the clinical decisions of the kinesiologist professional. Finally, an analysis of the barriers and facilitators described by the scientific literature regarding the use of the biopsychosocial model will be provided.

Exploring the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of quality of life among older people: A cross-sectional and analytical study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Although studies have examined the relationship between variables associated with active aging and quality of life (QoL), no studies have been identified to have investigated the effect of a structural model of active aging on QoL in a representative sample of older people in the community. OBJECTIVE: To measure the domains and facets of QoL in older people and identify the effect of the structural model of active aging on the self-assessment of QoL. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional analytical study included 957 older people living in urban areas. Data were collected from households using validated instruments between March and June 2018. Descriptive, confirmatory factor, and structural equation modeling analyses were performed. RESULTS: Most older people self-rated their QoL as good (58.7%), and the highest mean scores were for the social relationships domain (70.12 ± 15.4) and the death and dying facet (75.43 ± 26.7). In contrast, the lowest mean scores were for the physical domains (64.41 ± 17.1) and social participation (67.20 ± 16.2) facets. It was found that active aging explained 50% of the variation in self-assessed QoL and directly and positively affected this outcome (λ = 0.70; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Active aging had a direct and positive effect on the self-assessment of QoL, indicating that the more individuals actively aged, the better the self-assessment of QoL.

Isotemporal substitution analysis of time between sleep, sedentary behavior, and physical activity on depressive symptoms in older adults: a cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Compared to young individuals, older adults participate more in sedentary behavior (SB) and less in physical activity (PA). These behaviors are associated with numerous adverse health factors. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the study was to examine the hypothetical effects of substituting time spent sleeping, performing SB, and performing moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) on depressive symptomatology in older adults. DESIGN AND SETTING: An analytical cross-sectional study employing exploratory survey methods was conducted in the city of Alcobaça in the state of Bahia, Brazil METHODS: The study included 473 older adults who answered a structured questionnaire during an interview. Exposure time to SB and PA level were assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and depressive symptoms were analyzed using the short version of the Geriatric Depression Scale. An isotemporal replacement model was used to evaluate the effects of different SB sessions on depressive symptomatology. RESULTS: An increase in the risk of depressive symptoms was observed when MVPA and sleep time were substituted for the same SB time at all times tested, with maximum values of 40% and 20%, respectively. Opposite substitution of MVPA and sleep time increments reduced the risk of depressive symptomatology by 28% and 17%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study indicate that replacing SB with the same amount of sleep or MVPA may reduce depressive symptoms. The longer the reallocation time, the greater are the benefits.

Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to develop and internally validate a prediction model for estimating the risk of spontaneous abortion in early pregnancy. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 9,895 pregnant women who received prenatal care at a maternal health facility in China from January 2021 to December 2022. Data on demographics, medical history, lifestyle factors, and mental health were collected. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to develop the prediction model with spontaneous abortion as the outcome. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques, and its discrimination and calibration were assessed. Results: The spontaneous abortion rate was 5.95% (589/9,895) 1. The final prediction model included nine variables: maternal age, history of embryonic arrest, thyroid dysfunction, polycystic ovary syndrome, assisted reproduction, exposure to pollution, recent home renovation, depression score, and stress score 1. The model showed good discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI 0.87‒0.90) 1, and its calibration was adequate based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.27). Conclusions: The prediction model demonstrated good performance in estimating spontaneous abortion risk in early pregnancy based on demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. Further external validation is recommended before clinical application.

Centros Especializados em Reabilitação: avaliando os desafios à implementação do modelo biopsicossocial nas práticas assistenciais à pessoa com deficiência / Specialized rehabilitation centers: assessing the challenges in implementing the biopsychosocial model in caring for people with disabilities / Centros Especializados en Rehabilitación: evaluación de los desafíos para la implementación del modelo biosicosocial en las prácticas asistenciales para la persona con discapacidad

Avaliamos, em conjunto com profissionais dos serviços, os desafios à implementação do modelo biopsicossocial nos Centros Especializados em Reabilitação. Por meio da articulação da Avaliação de Quarta Geração e Roda de Conversa (Método Paideia), abordamos os modelos implementados de assistência à pessoa com deficiência, partindo das seguintes questões: trabalhar em reabilitação; prontuário e avaliação; atendimento compartilhado e qualificação da alta. Do conteúdo das rodas emergiram três categorias empíricas: o processo de trabalho em reabilitação; o trabalho em rede; o modelo de cuidado. A identificação de entraves e facilitadores poderá favorecer a plena implementação do modelo biopsicossocial na atenção às pessoas com deficiência, gerando subsídios para o avanço rumo à integralidade do cuidado às pessoas com deficiência representado neste modelo.(AU)

We assessed challenges in implementing the biopsychosocial model in specialized rehabilitation centers together with the professionals working in these services. Using fourth generation assessment and conversation circles (the Paideia method), we explored models of care for people with disabilities focusing on the following issues: working in rehabilitation; health records and evaluation; shared appointments; and improving discharge. Three empirical categories emerged from the conversation circles: rehabilitation work processes; the network-based approach; and the care model. The identification of constraints and enabling factors can help promote the effective implementation of the biopsychosocial model, generating important insights to help drive progress towards the delivery of comprehensive care to people with disabilities represented in this model.(AU)

Evaluamos en conjunto con profesionales de los servicios, los desafíos para la implementación del modelo biosicosocial en los centros especializados en rehabilitación. Por medio de la articulación de la Evaluación de Cuarta Generación y Rueda de Conversación (Método Paideia), abordamos los modelos implementados de asistencia a la persona con discapacidad, partiendo de las siguientes cuestiones: trabajar en rehabilitación; historial médico y evaluación; atención compartida y calificación del alta. Del contenido de las ruedas surgieron tres categorías empíricas: el proceso de trabajo en rehabilitación; el proceso en red; el modelo de cuidado. La identificación de obstáculos y facilitadores podrá favorecer la plena implementación del modelo biosicosocial en la atención a las personas con discapacidad, generando subsidios para el avance hacia la integralidad del cuidado a las personas con discapacidad representado en este modelo.(AU)

Establishment and validation of nomogram prediction model of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To explore the predictive factors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia in adult inpatients， and to establish and validate the nomogram prediction model. METHODS Data of adult inpatients treated with cefoperazone/sulbactam in Xi’an Central Hospital from Jun. 30th， 2021 to Jun. 30th， 2023 were retrospectively collected. The training set and internal validation set were randomly constructed in a 7∶3 ratio. Singler factor and multifactor Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the independent predictors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia. The nomogram was drawn by using “RMS” of R 4.0.3 software， and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and C-index curve. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the model. Using the same standard， the clinical data of hospitalized patients receiving cefoperazone/sulbactam in Xi’an First Hospital in the same period were collected for external validation of the nomogram prediction model. RESULTS A total of 1 045 patients in Xi’an Central Hospital were included in this study， among which 67 patients suffered from cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia， with an incidence of 6.41%. After the false positive patients were excluded， 473 patients were included finally， including 331 in the training set and 142 in theinternal validation set. Multifactor Logistic regression analysis showed that age [OR＝1.043， 95%CI （1.017， 1.070）]， estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR） [OR＝0.988，95%CI（0.977， 0.998）]， baseline platelet （PLT） [OR＝0.989， 95%CI（0.982， 0.996）]， nutritional risk [OR＝3.863， 95%CI（1.884， 7.921）] and cumulative defined daily doses （DDDs） [OR＝1.082， 95%CI（1.020， 1.147）] were independent predictors for cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia （P＜0.05）. The C-index values of the training set and the internal validation set were 0.824 [95%CI （0.759， 0.890）] and 0.828 [95%CI （0.749， 0.933）]， respectively. The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that χ 2 values were 0.441 （P＝0.802） and 1.804 （P＝0.406）. In the external validation set， the C-index value was 0.808 [95%CI （0.672， 0.945）]， the χ 2 value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.899 （P＝0.638）. CONCLUSIONS The independent predictors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia include age， baseline PLT， eGFR， nutritional risk and cumulative DDDs. The model has good predictive efficacy and extrapolation ability， which can help clinic identify the potential risk of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia quickly and accurately.

Dilemma and promotion strategy of “dual channel”management policy for China’s medical insurance negotiated drugs / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To provide reference for the smooth implementation of the “dual channel” management policy for China’s medical insurance negotiated drugs. METHODS Based on Smith policy implementation process model， the dilemmas for the implementation of “dual channel” policy for medical insurance negotiated drugs were analyzed from four aspects： implementation details and regulatory system， drug selection， drug provision and quality control， the situation of medical insurance funds and information technology capabilities. The corresponding promotion strategies were put forward. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS The “dual channel” policy for medical insurance negotiated drugs in China might face implementation difficulties such as a lack of clear implementation rules and a full process supervision system， the suitability and operability of some medical insurance negotiated drugs need to be considered in the “dual channel” management， difficulties in drug allocation and quality control， differences in the management and operation of medical insurance funds in different regions， and insufficient informatization capability. In this regard， this study suggests that measures， such as improving the implementation rules of the “dual channel” policy， enhancing the rationality of the “dual channel” drug catalog， establishing a dynamic exit mechanism for “dual channel” pharmacies， promoting professional delivery services， and improving the electronic prescription circulation platform， which can be taken to enhance the implementation effect of the “dual channel” policy.

Application progress of predictive models in the prevention and control of myopia in children and adolescents / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

In medical research,predictive models have been widely used to predict disease progression and identify high-risk populations in advance, especially in the prevention and diagnosis of chronic diseases. In ophthalmology, the predictive and diagnostic models for fundus diseases such as age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy have demonstrated expert-level accuracy. However, the application of predictive models is still in the exploratory stage as for myopia prevention and control. The establishment of a predictive model is helpful to identify the high-risk myopic children in advance, so that preventive measures such as adequate outdoor activities and reducing near work can be taken in time, which is of great significance to prevent or slow down the occurrence and development of myopia. Because the mechanism of myopia has not been fully elucidated, there are still challenges and limitations in the selection of application objects, predictors and predictive outcomes. This paper reviews the research progress of different types of myopia predictive models in order to provide reference for further development and improvement.

Clinical Prediction Model for Diabetic Kidney Disease Based on Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ObjectiveTo construct and validate a clinical prediction model for diabetic kidney disease （DKD） based on optical coherence tomography angiography （OCTA）. MethodsThis study enrolled 567 diabetes patients. The random forest algorithm as well as logistic regression analysis were applied to construct the prediction model. The model discrimination and clinical usefulness were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC） and decision curve analysis （DCA）， respectively. ResultsThe clinical prediction model for DKD based on OCTA was constructed with area under the curve （AUC） of 0.878 and Brier score of 0.11. ConclusionsThrough multidimensional verification， the clinical prediction nomogram model based on OCTA allowed for early warning and advanced intervention of DKD.

Spatial-temporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Late Diagnosis of HIV/AIDS Based on Bayes Spatial-temporal Model / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ObjectivesTo analyze the spatial and temporal clustering characteristics and related influencing factors of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou， to identify its high-risk areas and time trends in Lanzhou， and to provide a theoretical basis for developing targeted HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategies in Lanzhou. MethodsThe subjects of this study were adult HIV/AIDS cases reported in Lanzhou City between 2011 and 2018. Data used in the study were sourced from the Lanzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Lanzhou Statistical Yearbook. To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the relative risk （RR） of late HIV/AIDS diagnosis， Bayes spatial-temporal model was used. ResultsA total of 1984 new HIV/AIDS cases were reported in Lanzhou from 2011 to 2018， with an mean age of 37.51 years and predominantly male （91.8%）. The number of late diagnosis cases was 982， with an mean age of 39.67 years and a predominance of males （91.8%）. Late diagnosis was more common in older individuals and women with HIV/AIDS. Chengguan District （51.1%）， Anning District （50.3%） and Yuzhong County （51.9%） had an above-average proportion of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS. The proportion of late diagnosis cases in Lanzhou showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2018. The results of Bayes spatial-temporal model showed that the risk of late HIV/AIDS diagnosis in Lanzhou had fluctuated from 2011 to 2015， and then increased rapidly after 2015 ［RR （95% credibility interval， 95%CI） increased from 1.01 （0.84， 1.23） to 1.11 （0.77， 1.97）］； the trends of risk of late diagnosis in Honggu district and three counties were similar to the overall trend in Lanzhou city， while the risk of late diagnosis in Chengguan District and Qilihe District showed a decreasing trend. The regions with the RR for late diagnosis greater than 1 included Yongdeng County （RR=1.07， 95% CI： 0.55， 1.96）， Xigu District （RR=1.04， 95% CI： 0.67， 1.49）， Chengguan District （RR=2.41， 95% CI： 0.85， 6.16）， and Qilihe District （RR=2.03， 95% CI： 1.10， 3.27）. Besides， the heatmap analysis showed that Chengguan District and Qilihe District were the hot spots. The influencing factors analysis showed that the higher GDP per capita （RR=0.65， 95% CI： 0.35， 0.90） and the larger proportion of males with HIV/AIDS cases （RR=0.53， 95% CI： 0.19， 0.92） could lead to the lower the relative risk of late HIV/AIDS diagnosis. However， the higher the population density （RR=1.35， 95% CI： 1.01， 1.81） caused the higher the risk of late diagnosis. ConclusionOur study shows the risk of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS in Lanzhou was on the rise， and there are significant regional differences. GDP per capita， the proportion of males in HIV/AIDS cases and population density are influencing factors in the late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS. Therefore， for regions with a high risk of late diagnosis or related risk factors， targeted HIV screening and prevention services should be given priority in order to reduce the proportion and risk of late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS.

Prediction of brucellosis incidence in Urumqi / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Risk analysis of re⁃fracture after percutaneous kyphoplasty in elderly patients with osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures and construction of a columnar graph prediction model / 解剖学报

Objective To investigate the risk factors for re-fracture after percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) in elderly patients with osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures and to construct a line graph prediction model. Methods One hundred and eighty-two elderly patients with osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures treated with PKP from January 2016 to November 2019 were selected for the study‚ and the patients were continuously followed up for 3 years after surgery. Clinical data were collected from both groups; Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed on the measures; Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent risk factors affecting postoperative re-fracture in PKP; the R language software 4. 0 “rms” package was used to construct a predictive model for the line graph‚ and the calibration and decision curves were used to internally validate the predictive model for the line graph and for clinical evaluation of predictive performance. Results The differences between the two groups were statistically significant (P0. 22‚ which could provide a net clinical benefit‚ and the net clinical benefit was higher than the independent predictors. Conclusion BMD‚ number of injured vertebrae‚ single-segment cement injection‚ cement leakage‚ pre-and post-PKP vertebral height difference‚ and posterior convexity angle change are independent risk factors affecting the recurrent fracture after PKP in elderly patients with osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture‚ and this study constructs a column line graph model to predict the recurrent fracture after PKP in elderly patients with osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture as a predictor for clinical. This study provides an important reference for clinical prevention and treatment‚ and has clinical application value.

Development and validation of a method for quantitation of cefepime/avibactam in M-H broth: application to antibacterial activity using in vitro PK/PD Model / 中国临床药理学与治疗学

AIM: To establish a method for quantitation of cefepime and avibactam in M-H broth, and applicated in the in vitro dynamic PK/PD model. METHODS: The cefepime was also determined using the high-performance liquid chromatography method (HPLC), the avibactam was also determined using the liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), an in vitro dynamic PK/PD model was established to study the PK/PD relationship of cefepime/avibactam against carbapenem resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP). RESULTS: The linear ranges of cefepime and avibactam were good at (0.5-20) and (0.1-25) μg/mL (r=0.999), and the lower limit concentrations were 0.5 and 0.1 μg/mL. The extraction recoveries of cefepime and avibactam in M-H broth were 88.0%-101.7% and 90.9%-95.2%, the relative standard deviation of intra-day precision and inter-day precision were less than 5.2%. The concentration-time curves were well simulated by the PK/PD model. All observed concentrations in each experiment were in the range of 20% of the targeted values. For the CRKP of MIC=8 μg/mL and MIC=16 μg/mL, the colony decreased to 2.783Log10 CFU/mL and 1.325Log10 CFU/mL at the cefepime/avibactam 2.5 g q8 h administration after 24 h. CONCLUSION: The determination method of cefepime and avibactam in broth established in this study has high sensitivity and good stability. For the CRKP with MIC≤8 μg/mL,cefepime/avibactam showed that good anti-CRKP activity under routine administration in vitro dynamic PK/PD model.

Preparation of tripterygium glycoside nanoparticles and therapeutic effect on arthritis rats / 中国药理学通报

Aim To prepare tripterygium glycoside nanoparticles and probe into their therapeutic effect on collagen-induced arthritis ( CIA) rats. Methods Tripterygium glycosides polyglycoside nanoparticles were prepared by thin film dispersion method and their quality was assessed. The CIA model was established and drug intervention performed. The body weight, toe swelling degree and arthritis index were measured. The pathological changes of the organs, knee and ankle synovium were observed. The serum levels of kidney function and inflammatory cytokine expression were detected in rats. Results The prepared tripterygium wil-fordii polyglycoside nanoparticles were round particles with uniform distribution and stable properties under electron microscope. Compared with the model group, the swelling of the left and right toes of medication group significantly decreased (P < 0. 01), and the ar-thritis index markedly decreased ( P < 0. 01). Among them, the efficacy of the TG-NPs group was better than that of the TG group. Compared with the normal group, the indexes of heart, spleen, kidney and testis all significantly decreased (P <0. 05, P<0.01). TG-NPs group had a significantly reduced pathological ankle-joint injury in knee cartilage and increased apoptotic synovial cells. Compared with the model group, the serum levels of ALT and BUN and CRE in TG-NPs group were significantly lower (P < 0. 05 ), and IL-1β, TNF-α and IL-6 levels decreased significantly (P <0. 05). Conclusions TG-NPs have good therapeutic effect on CIA through induction of synovial cell apoptosis and decrease of the expression of inflammatory cytokines. By intravenous injection of blood circula-tion, slow and controlled release of drugs can be achieved, the first pass effect caused by oral drug can be avoided, the viscera toxicity can be reduced, which provides an experimental basis for the development of new nanoagents for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

Ideas and methods of in vitro model establishment for cell microenvironment in COPD / 中国药理学通报

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD ) major chronic disease threatening public health with complex pathological mechanisms. The change of the cell microenvironment of the lung is an important part of the pathophysiology of COPD. Cell culture technology is an important method to investigate the pathological mechanism of COPD and evaluate the pharmacological effect of medicine. Here we introduce the composition of the cell microenvironment of the lung, the change of the cell microenvironment in the pathological process of COPD, and summarize the application of in vitro model mimics cell microenvironment of COPD in the study of mechanism. In addition, we aim to put forward the ideas of the in vitro model establishment of cell microenvironment of COPD.

Exploration of CT imaging features of cystic pulmonary nodules and establishment of a prediction model for benign and malignant pulmonary nodules / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective To explore the CT imaging features and independent risk factors for cystic pulmonary nodules and establish a malignant probability prediction model. Methods The patients with cystic pulmonary nodules admitted to the Department of Thoracic Surgery of the First People's Hospital of Neijiang from January 2017 to February 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. They were divided into a malignant group and a benign group according to the pathological results. The clinical data and preoperative chest CT imaging features of the two groups were collected, and the independent risk factors for malignant cystic pulmonary nodules were screened out by logistic regression analysis, so as to establish a prediction model for benign and malignant cystic pulmonary nodules. Results A total of 107 patients were enrolled. There were 76 patients in the malignant group, including 36 males and 40 females, with an average age of 59.65±11.74 years. There were 31 patients in the benign group, including 16 males and 15 females, with an average age of 58.96±13.91 years. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the special CT imaging features such as cystic wall nodules [OR=3.538, 95%CI (1.231, 10.164), P=0.019], short burrs [OR=4.106, 95%CI (1.454, 11.598), P=0.008], cystic wall morphology [OR=6.978, 95%CI (2.374, 20.505), P<0.001], and the number of cysts [OR=4.179, 95%CI (1.438, 12.146), P=0.009] were independent risk factors for cystic lung cancer. A prediction model was established: P=ex/(1+ex), X=–2.453+1.264×cystic wall nodules+1.412×short burrs+1.943×cystic wall morphology+1.430×the number of cysts. The area under the receiver operating charateristic curve was 0.830, the sensitivity was 82.9%, and the specificity was 74.2%. Conclusion Cystic wall nodules, short burrs, cystic wall morphology, and the number of cysts are the independent risk factors for cystic lung cancer, and the established prediction model can be used as a screening method for cystic pulmonary nodules.

Application status and development trend of virtual clinical trials / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Virtual clinical trials are clinical trials conducted through computer simulation technology, which breaks through the limitations of traditional clinical trials and has the advantages of saving time, reducing costs, and reducing the risk of human trials. With the application of new computer technologies such as population pharmacokinetics, physiologically-based pharmacokinetics, quantitative systems pharmacology, and artificial intelligence, the field of virtual clinical trials in healthcare has become an important development direction. This article will give a preliminary review of the connotation, methods and future development trends of virtual clinical trials, aiming to provide reference for the application of new technologies and methods in clinical trials.