Environmental sympatry through time: spatio-temporal distribution and conservation status of two sympatric anuran species (Leptodactylidae) in South America / Simpatría ambiental a través del tiempo: distribución espacio-temporal y estado de conservación de dos especies de anuros simpátricos (Leptodactylidae) en América del Sur

Abstract Introduction: Leptodactylus latinasus and Physalaemus cuqui are sympatric anuran species with similar environmental requirements and contrasting reproductive modes. Climatic configuration determines distribution patterns and promotes sympatry of environmental niches, but specificity/selectivity determines the success of reproductive modes. Species distribution models (SDM) are a valuable tool to predict spatio-temporal distributions based on the extrapolation of environmental predictors. Objectives: To determine the spatio-temporal distribution of environmental niches and assess whether the protected areas of the World Database of Protected Areas (WDPA) allow the conservation of these species in the current scenario and future. Methods: We applied different algorithms to predict the distribution and spatio-temporal overlap of environmental niches of L. latinasus and P. cuqui within South America in the last glacial maximum (LGM), middle-Holocene, current and future scenarios. We assess the conservation status of both species with the WDPA conservation units. Results: All applied algorithms showed high performance for both species (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). The L. latinasus predictions showed wide environmental niches from LGM to the current scenario (49 % stable niches, 37 % gained niches, and 13 % lost niches), suggesting historical fidelity to stable climatic-environmental regions. In the current-future transition, L. latinasus would increase the number of stable (70 %) and lost (20 %) niches, suggesting fidelity to lowland regions and a possible trend toward microendemism. P. cuqui loses environmental niches from the LGM to the current scenario (25 %) and in the current-future transition (63 %), increasing the environmental sympathy between both species; 31 % spatial overlap in the current scenario and 70 % in the future. Conclusion: Extreme drought events and rainfall variations, derived from climate change, suggest the loss of environmental niches for these species that are not currently threatened but are not adequately protected by conservation units. The loss of environmental niches increases spatial sympatry which represents a new challenge for anurans and the conservation of their populations.

Resumen Introducción: Leptodactylus latinasus y Physalaemus cuqui son especies de anuros simpátricos con requerimientos ambientales similares y modos reproductivos contrastantes. La configuración climática determina los patrones de distribución y promueve la simpatría de los nichos ambientales, pero la especificidad/selectividad determina el éxito de los modos reproductivos. Los modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) son una herramienta valiosa para predecir distribuciones espacio-temporales basadas en la extrapolación de predictores ambientales. Objetivos: Determinar la distribución espacio-temporal de los nichos ambientales y evaluar si las áreas protegidas de la base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas (DMAP) permiten la conservación de estas especies en el escenario actual y futuro. Métodos: Aplicamos diferentes algoritmos para predecir la distribución y superposición espacio-temporal de nichos ambientales de L. latinasus y P. cuqui dentro de América del Sur en el último máximo glacial (UGM), Holoceno medio, actual y futuro. Evaluamos el estado de conservación de ambas especies con las unidades de conservación de la DMAP. Resultados: Todos los algoritmos aplicados mostraron un alto rendimiento para ambas especies (TSS = 0.87, AUC = 0.95). Las predicciones de L. latinasus mostraron amplios nichos ambientales desde LGM hasta el escenario actual (49 % de nichos estables, 37 % de nichos ganados y 13 % de nichos perdidos), sugiriendo fidelidad histórica por regiones climático-ambientales estables. En la transición actual-futura L. latinasus incrementaría la cantidad de nichos estables (70 %) y perdidos (20 %), sugiriendo fidelidad por regiones de tierras bajas y la posible tendencia hacia el microendemismo. P. cuqui pierde nichos ambientales desde el LGM al escenario actual (25 %) y en la transición actual-futura (63 %), incrementando la simpatría ambiental entre ambas especies; 31 % de superposición espacial en el escenario actual y 70 % en el futuro. Conclusión: Los eventos de sequía extrema y las variaciones de precipitaciones, derivados del cambio climático, sugieren la pérdida de nichos ambientales para estas especies, actualmente no se encuentran amenazadas, pero no están adecuadamente protegidas por las unidades de conservación. La pérdida de nichos ambientales aumenta la simpatría espacial que representa un nuevo desafío para estos anuros y la conservación de sus poblaciones.

Precipitation explains Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) occupancy patterns in Northern Costa Rica / Patrones de ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque (Hylocichla mustelina) explicados por la precipitación en el Norte de Costa Rica

Abstract Introduction: The Wood Thrush is a migratory bird that has experienced dramatic declines in its populations in recent decades. This species overwinters in forest fragments with intermediate levels of habitat modification in Central America. However, more studies detailing the use of remnant forests through time are needed to elucidate the threats this species faces in the wintering grounds. Objective: To understand the effects of environmental and forest structure variables on the occupancy of Wood Thrush in Northern Costa Rica. Methods: The study area was the Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG), located in Northern Costa Rica, in December 2016, and during the 2018-2019 migration season. We estimated Wood Thrush occupancy and detection probability in four locations of ACG (dry forest, cloud forest, and two locations in the wet forest) using single-season occupancy models. We also estimated Wood Thrush occupancy and probability of persistence in different months in three vegetation types (open area, secondary forest, and old-growth forest) in the wet forest of ACG using a multi-season occupancy model approach. Results: Wood Thrush occupancy was best described by precipitation in the four locations of the ACG; the probability of occupancy increased with precipitation. The average occupancy of Wood Thrushes varied with vegetation type: open area with shrubs and forest edge (0.69 ± 0.09), secondary forest (0.46 ± 0.1), and old-growth forest (0.61 ± 0.1). Wood Thrush probability of persistence responded partially to changes in precipitation, with an unexpected increase in persistence when the rainfall continued decreasing in the season. Conclusion: Wood Thrush occupancy was best predicted by changes in precipitation considering a larger spatial scale. Its probability of persistence partially varied with precipitation. An increase in persistence closer to Spring migration might be explained by the start of the breeding season of resident birds, potentially reducing territorial conflicts and conserving energy before migration. The long-term protection of wet forests in Northern Costa Rica is of paramount importance for the conservation of Wood Thrushes in their wintering grounds.

Resumen Introducción: El Zorzal del Bosque es un ave migratoria que ha experimentado caídas dramáticas en sus poblaciones en las últimas décadas. Esta especie pasa el invierno en fragmentos de bosque con niveles intermedios de modificación de hábitat en Centroamérica. Sin embargo, se necesitan más estudios que detallen el uso de los bosques remanentes a lo largo del tiempo para dilucidar las amenazas que enfrenta esta especie en las zonas de invernada. Objetivo: Comprender los efectos de variables ambientales y de estructura del bosque en la ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque en el Norte de Costa Rica. Métodos: El área de estudio fue el Área de Conservación Guanacaste (ACG), ubicada en el Norte de Costa Rica, en diciembre de 2016, y en la temporada migratoria 2018-2019. Estimamos la ocurrencia y la probabilidad de detección del Zorzal del Bosque en cuatro ubicaciones de ACG (bosque seco, bosque nuboso y dos ubicaciones en el bosque húmedo) utilizando modelos de ocurrencia de una sola temporada. También estimamos la ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque y la probabilidad de persistencia en diferentes meses en tres tipos de vegetación (área abierta, bosque secundario y bosque primario) en el bosque húmedo de ACG utilizando un enfoque de modelo de ocurrencia multi-estacional. Resultados: La ocurrencia del Zorzal del Bosque estuvo mejor descrita por la precipitación en las cuatro localidades del ACG; la probabilidad de ocurrencia aumentó con las precipitaciones. La ocurrencia media de zorzales varió con el tipo de vegetación: área abierta con arbustos y borde de bosque (0.69 ± 0.09), bosque secundario (0.46 ± 0.1) y bosque primario (0.61 ± 0.1). La probabilidad de persistencia del zorzal respondió parcialmente a cambios en la precipitación, con un aumento inesperado en la persistencia cuando las precipitaciones continuaron disminuyendo en la temporada. Conclusión: La ocurrecia del Zorzal del Bosque varió con la precipitación considerando una escala espacial mayor. Su probabilidad de persistencia varió parcialmente con la precipitación. Un aumento en la persistencia más cerca de la migración de primavera podría explicarse por el inicio de la temporada de reproducción de las aves residentes, lo que podría reducir los conflictos territoriales y conservar energía antes de la migración. La protección a largo plazo de los bosques húmedos en el norte de Costa Rica es de suma importancia para la conservación de los Zorzales del Bosque en sus zonas de invernada.

Fasting glucose: a cardiometabolic indicator for subclinical atherosclerosis on excess weight adolescents

Abstract Objective: To build a model based on cardiometabolic indicators that allow the identification of overweight adolescents at higher risk of subclinical atherosclerotic disease (SAD). Methods: Cross-sectional study involving 161 adolescents with a body mass index ≥ + 1 z-Score, aged 10 to 19 years. Carotid intima-media complex thickness (IMT) was evaluated using ultrasound to assess subclinical atherosclerotic disease. Cardiometabolic indicators evaluated included nutritional status, central adiposity, blood pressure, lipidic profile, glycemic profile, as well as age and sex. Data was presented using measures of central tendency and dispersion, as well as absolute and relative frequency. The relationship between IMT measurement (outcome variable) and other variables (independent variables) was assessed using Pearson or Spearman correlation, followed by multiple regression modeling with Gamma distribution to analyze predictors of IMT. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS and R software, considering a significance level of 5 %. Results: It was observed that 23.7 % had Carotid thickening, and the prevalence of abnormal fasting glucose was the lowest. Age and fasting glucose were identified as predictors of IMT increase, with IMT decreasing with age by approximately 1 % per year and increasing with glucose by around 0.24 % per mg/dL. Conclusion: The adolescent at higher risk is younger with higher fasting glycemia levels.

Portfólio: percepção de estudantes de graduação da área da saúde / Portafolio: percepción de los estudiantes de pregrado en eláreade la salud / Portfolio: perception of undergraduate students in the healthcare field

Introdução:A formação em saúde norteia a prática profissional, incidindo diretamente na atenção e assistência à saúde ofertada à população. Nesse sentido, o uso de métodos ativos de aprendizagem e avaliação, como por exemplo, o portfólio, podem contribuir para a construção de conhecimentos crítico-reflexivos. Objetivo:Evidenciara percepção de estudantes dos cursos da área da saúde, que cursam a disciplina de Saúde e Cidadania na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte sobre o uso do portfólio enquanto instrumento de avaliação do ensino aprendizagem. Metodologia:Os dados foram obtidos por meio da formação de grupo focaleanalisados pela análise do conteúdo. Definiram-se, então, as categorias temáticas:percepção sobre o portfólio; a elaboração do portfólio e a sua contribuição para a formação; dificuldades para formulação doportfólio;o portfólio como instrumento de avaliação. Resultados:Os estudantes compreendem o portfólio como instrumento de diálogo entre docentes e discentes, através dos relatos das vivências em grupo nos equipamentos sociais e reflexões individuais na construção de conceitos e aprofundamento teórico. Ainda referem inseguranças e dúvidas acerca da estruturação e confecção do instrumento, no entanto, percebem o portfólio como potente e inovador no auxílio aconstrução do conhecimento uma vez que permite oacompanhamento do processo de ensino-aprendizagem, possibilitando maior interação entre educador-educando, com produção de uma aprendizagem significativa.Conclusões:o portfólio estimula a reflexão e a crítica acerca das vivências nos cenários de práticas onde se desenvolve o componente curricular Saúde e Cidadaniacorroborando, sobremaneira, para a construção do conhecimento dos estudantes (AU).

Introduction:A degreein healthcare guides the professional practice, directly affecting the healthcare attention and assistance offered to the population. In this sense, the use of active learning and assessment methods, such as portfolios, can contribute to the construction of critical-reflective knowledge. Objective:To highlight the perception of students from health courses, who study the Health and Citizenship discipline at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, regarding the use of the portfolio as an instrument for evaluating teaching and learning.Methodology:Data were obtained through the formation of a focus group and analyzed using content analysis. Thematic categories were then defined: perception of the portfolio; the preparation of the portfolio and its contribution to training; difficulties in formulating the portfolio; the portfolio as an assessment tool. Results:Students understand the portfolio as an instrument of dialogue between teachers and students, through reports of group experiences in social facilities and individual reflections in the construction of concepts and theoretical deepening. They still report insecurities and doubts about the structuring and creation of the instrument, however, they perceive the portfolio as powerful and innovativein helping to build knowledge as it allows the monitoring of the teaching-learning process, enabling greater interaction between educator and student, with the production of significant learning. Conclusions:The portfolio encourages reflection and criticism about the experiences in the practical scenarios where the curricular component -SACI is developed, greatly supporting the construction of students' knowledge (AU).

Introducción:La formación en salud orienta la práctica profesional, incidiendo directamente en la atención y asistencia sanitaria que se ofrece a la población. En este sentido, el uso de métodos activos de aprendizaje y evaluación, como los portafolios, puedecontribuir a la construcción de conocimiento crítico-reflexivo. Objetivo:Resaltar la percepción de estudiantes de carreras de salud, que cursan la disciplina Salud y Ciudadanía de la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Norte, sobre el uso del portafolios como instrumento de evaluación de la enseñanza y del aprendizaje. Metodología:Los datos se obtuvieron mediante la formación de un grupo focal y se analizaron mediante análisis de contenido. Luego se definieron categorías temáticas: percepción del portafolio; la elaboración del portafolio y su contribución a la formación; dificultades para formular el portafolio; el portafolio como herramienta de evaluación.Resultados:Los estudiantes entienden el portafolio como un instrumento de diálogo entre docentes y estudiantes, a través de relatos de experiencias grupales en establecimientos sociales y reflexiones individuales en la construcción de conceptos y profundización teórica. Aún reportan inseguridades y dudas sobre la estructuración y creación del instrumento, sin embargo, perciben el portafolio como poderoso e innovador para ayudar a la construcción de conocimiento ya que permite el seguimiento del proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje, posibilitando una mayor interacción entre educador y estudiante, con la producción de aprendizajes significativos.Conclusiones: El portafolio incentiva la reflexión y crítica sobre las experiencias en los escenarios prácticos donde se desarrolla el componente curricular -SACI, apoyando en gran medida la construcción del conocimiento de los estudiantes (AU).

The effect of Orem self-care model on the improvement of symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetes: A scoping review / Efecto del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en el mejoramiento de los síntomas y en la calidad de vida de pacientes con diabetes: Una revisión de alcance / Efeito do modelo de autocuidado de Orem na melhora dos sintomas e na qualidade de vida de pacientes com diabetes: uma revisão de escopo

Objective: to evaluate the association of Orem self-care model improvement of symptoms and quality of life in patients with diabetes. Methods. A scoping review was carried on bibliographic databases: PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID and Magiran. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies examining the impact of the Orem self-care model on diabetic patients. Studies considered for inclusion needed to have full-text availability and be written in either English or Persian, with key words including "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life", and "Diabetes Mellitus". CONSORT checklist and STROBE statement were selected for quality assessment. Results. A total of 9 studies were included, all using quantitative methodology and focusing on adults or older adults. The majority of articles focused on quality of life and diabetic symptoms. 8 studies showed positive outcomes after implementation of the model. The findings indicate that this model led to an enhanced level of self-efficacy, improved quality of life, and better self-care practices among diabetic patients.Conclusion.Orem self-care model can reduce the diabetic symptoms and improve the quality of life, self-efficacy and self-care in these patients.

Objetivo. Evaluar la asociación del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en el mejoramiento de los síntomas y en la calidad de vida en pacientes con diabetes. Método. Se realizó una revisión de alcance empleando las bases bibliográficas PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID y Magiran. Los criterios de inclusión abarcaron estudios que examinaran el impacto del modelo de autocuidado de Orem en pacientes diabéticos. Los estudios considerados para su inclusión debían tener disponibilidad de texto completo y estar escritos en inglés o persa, con palabras clave como: "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life" y "Diabetes Mellitus". Se utilizaron para la evaluación de la calidad de los estudios la lista de comprobación CONSORT y la declaración STROBE. Resultados. Se incluyeron un total de 9 estudios, todos ellos con metodología cuantitativa y centrados en adultos y en ancianos. La mayoría de los artículos se estudiaron la calidad de vida y los síntomas diabéticos. 8 estudios mostraron resultados positivos tras la aplicación del modelo de Orem. Los hallazgos indican que este modelo condujo a un mayor nivel de autoeficacia, mejor calidad de vida y mejores prácticas de autocuidado entre los pacientes diabéticos. Conclusión.El modelo de autocuidado de Orem puede ayudar a disminuir los síntomas diabéticos y mejorar la calidad de vida, la autoeficacia y el autocuidado en estos pacientes.

Objetivo. Avaliar a associação do modelo de autocuidado de Orem na melhora dos sintomas e na qualidade de vida de pacientes com diabetes. Métodos. Foi realizada uma revisão de escopo usando os bancos de dados PubMed-Medline, Scopus, SID e Magiran. Os critérios de inclusão incluíram estudos que examinaram o impacto do modelo de autocuidado de Orem em pacientes diabéticos. Os estudos considerados para inclusão tinham que estar disponíveis em texto completo e escritos em inglês ou persa, com palavras-chave como: "Models", "Nursing", "Quality of Life" e "Diabetes Mellitus". A lista de verificação CONSORT e a declaração STROBE foram usadas para avaliar a qualidade dos estudos. Resultados. Foram incluídos 9 estudos, todos com metodologia quantitativa e com foco em adultos e idosos. A maioria dos artigos estudou a qualidade de vida e os sintomas diabéticos. Oito estudos mostraram resultados positivos após a aplicação do modelo de Orem. Os achados indicam que esse modelo levou a um nível mais alto de autoeficácia, melhor qualidade de vida e melhores práticas de autocuidado entre os pacientes diabéticos. Conclusão. O modelo de autocuidado de Orem pode ajudar a diminuir os sintomas da diabetes e melhorar a qualidade de vida, a autoeficácia e o autocuidado desses pacientes.

Cooperación entre médicos del departamento de emergencias y dermatólogos por telemedicina / Cooperation between emergency department physicians and dermatologists via telemedicine

Las intercurrencias dermatológicas agudas son un motivo de consulta frecuente a las centrales de emergencias, y generalmente los médicos de atención primaria se ocupan del primer nivel de atención. Puede ser necesaria una interconsulta con expertos, aunque no siempre estén disponibles. Ante la necesidad de facilitar dicha interacción a distancia, en Julio 2022 se implementó una herramienta de teledermatología en un hospital de alta complejidad en Buenos Aires, Argentina. Este servicio se limitó a días hábiles con horario restringido, permitiendo la comunicación entre médicos del departamento de emergencias y dermatólogos, a través de WhatsApp institucional. El dermatólogo podía verificar datos de salud relacionados al paciente (ej: comorbilidades y medicación crónica) mediante revisión de la historia clínica electrónica, para decidir sobre un plan de acción. Se evaluó la perspectiva de los usuarios a través de un formulario electrónico tras 3 meses de implementación. Los resultados evidenciaron que la mayoría (85%) de los profesionales conocía la herramienta, y el 57% la había usado al menos una vez. Se obtuvo una mediana de 9 puntos (de una escala de Likert del 1 al 10) sobre la recomendación hacia otro profesional. El teletriage dermatológico resultó beneficioso y fue aceptado, tanto por médicos de guardia como por especialistas. Ante las demoras en la atención ambulatoria, ha resultado una alternativa útil para evitar derivaciones innecesarias y/o acelerar aquellas que verdaderamente lo ameritan. Sin embargo, representa una forma de comunicación informal desde el punto de vista de almacenamiento de datos. Será necesario reflexionar sobre estos tópicos pendientes de esta experiencia asistencial como legalidad, seguridad y confidencialidad (AU)

Acute skin conditions are a frequent reason for consultation in emergency departments, and primary care physicians generally handle them. They might require referrals to experts, who are not always readily available. Recognizing the need to facilitate such interactions remotely, a teledermatology triage tool was implemented in July 2022 at a high-complexity hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The service was limited to business days with restricted hours, enabling communication between emergency department physicians and dermatologists through institutional WhatsApp. Dermatologists could access patient-related health data (e.g., comorbidities and chronic medication) through the electronic medical record to determine an appropriate course of action. The perspective of users was evaluated through an electronic questionnaire after three months of application. Results showed that most professionals were aware of the tool (85%), and 57% used it at least once. The median rating for recommending the tool to other professionals was 9 points (on a Likert scale from 1 to 10). Dermatological teletriage proved beneficial and was well-received by emergency physicians and specialists. In the face of delays in outpatient care, it has been a useful alternative to avoid unnecessary referrals and expedite those that are warranted. However, it represents an informal method of communication with regard to data storage. It will be necessary to rethink on improvements in pending topics such as legal limitations, security, and confidentiality of this healthcare experience (AU)

Research progress on bone metabolism and molecular mechanisms in accelerated aging SAMP6 mice / 中国药理学通报

Senile osteoporosis (SOP) is a systemic bone disease characterized by increased susceptibility to fractures. The pathogenesis of SOP is complex and not well understood. Currently, the rapid aging model mouse, senescence accelerated mouse prone 6 (SAMP6), is an ideal model for studying the mechanisms of SOP development and exploring its prevention and treatment. This model exhibits characteristics including increased bone fragility, degradation of bone microstructure, loss of bone matrix, and abnormal metabolism and dysfunction of bone cells, faithfully replicating the process of SOP occurrence and progression at both macroscopic and microscopic levels.

Application of a polygenic risk score in the early prediction of myopia in children and adolescents / 中国学校卫生

Abstract@#Myopia has become a major public health issue of global concern. Scientific and effective myopia prediction models can help identify high risk groups for myopia, thereby achieving precise prevention. With the rapid development of genome wide association studies and the establishment of large scale prospective population cohorts, the polygenic risk score (PRS) model has been used to predict myopia phenotypes, advancing the myopia prediction window and thus predicting high myopia risk for early screening and intervention for at risk groups. The review aims to systematically elaborate the identification and verification of myopia genes in recent years, briefly describe the practice and effectiveness evaluation of the PRS model in myopia prevention research at home and abroad, reveal the application value in myopia prediction research, and emphasize the relationship between the PRS prediction model and outdoor activities. Close eye use and other preventive measures are of great significance to promote the precise prevention of myopia in children and adolescents.

Comparative study of different large language models and medical professionals of different levels responding to ophthalmology questions / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

AIM: To evaluate the performance of three distinct large language models(LLM), including GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and PaLM2, in responding to queries within the field of ophthalmology, and to compare their performance with three different levels of medical professionals: medical undergraduates, master of medicine, and attending physicians.METHODS: A total of 100 ophthalmic multiple-choice tests, which covered ophthalmic basic knowledge, clinical knowledge, ophthalmic examination and diagnostic methods, and treatment for ocular disease, were conducted on three different kinds of LLM and three different levels of medical professionals(9 undergraduates, 6 postgraduates and 3 attending physicians), respectively. The performance of LLM was comprehensively evaluated from the aspects of mean scores, consistency and confidence of response, and it was compared with human.RESULTS: Notably, each LLM surpassed the average performance of undergraduate medical students(GPT-4:56, GPT-3.5:42, PaLM2:47, undergraduate students:40). Specifically, performance of GPT-3.5 and PaLM2 was slightly lower than those of master's students(51), while GPT-4 exhibited a performance comparable to attending physicians(62). Furthermore, GPT-4 showed significantly higher response consistency and self-confidence compared with GPT-3.5 and PaLM2.CONCLUSION: LLM represented by GPT-4 performs well in the field of ophthalmology, and the LLM model can provide clinical decision-making and teaching aids for clinicians and medical education.

Association of 24hour movement behaviors with emotional and behavioral problems among left-behind children / 中国学校卫生

Objective@#To examine the association of 24 hour movement behaviors with emotional and behavioral problems among left behind children, so as to provide a theoretical reference for the practice of 24 hour activity interventions to promote emotional and behavioral problems in this population.@*Methods@#From February to May 2023, 1 117 left behind children in grades 4-6 from 10 primary schools in five cities in Zhejiang Province were selected using a convenient cluster sampling method to conduct a questionnaire survey examining 24 hour movement behaviors, as well as emotional and behavioral problems. The general linear model was adopted to analyze the association between satisfying the 24 hour movement behavior guidelines, and emotional and behavioral problems among left behind children.@*Results@#The sleep duration compliance rate was the highest (52.19%), while the moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) compliance rate was the lowest (17.73%). The compliance rate of the three activities accounted for 7.43 %. There was a dose response between the number of guidelines satisfied, and the emotional and behavior of left behind children; that was, satisfaction of a higher number of guidelines was associated with a lower risk of emotional and behavioral problems among left behind children (difficulty factor: β=-0.56, 95%CI =-1.23--0.19; strength factor: β=0.50, 95%CI =-0.48-1.22, P < 0.01). Compared to satisfying none of the guidelines, satisfying the guidelines for screen time ( β=-0.23, 95%CI =-2.18- -0.14 ) and sleep duration ( β=-0.13, 95%CI =-1.66--0.11) was negatively correlated with the difficulty factor, while satisfying the guideline for MVPA ( β=0.13, 95%CI =0.09-1.08) and sleep duration ( β=0.18, 95%CI =0.09-1.40) was positively associated with the strength factor. In addition, satisfying two or all three of the guidelines was more strongly associated with these outcomes than satisfying one of the recommendations ( P <0.01).@*Conclusions@#Meeting the 24 hour movement behavior guidelines can improve emotional and behavioral problems among left behind children. It is necessary to raise their awareness of the effect of satisfying the 24 hour movement behavior guidelines and formulate comprehensive intervention measures.

Application status of risk assessment models for periodontal disease / 口腔疾病防治

@#Risk assessment models for periodontal disease provide dentists with a precise and consolidated evaluation of the prognosis of periodontitis, enabling the formulation of personalized treatment plans. Periodontal risk assessment systems have been widely applied in clinical practice and research. The application fields of periodontal risk assessment systems vary based on the distinctions between clinical periodontal parameters and risk factors. The assessment models listed below are commonly used in clinical practice, including the periodontal risk calculator (PRC), which is an individual-based periodontal risk assessment tool that collects both periodontal and systemic information for prediction; the periodontal assessment tool (PAT), which allows for quantitative differentiation of stages of periodontal disease; the periodontal risk assessment (PRA) and modified periodontal risk assessment (mPRA), which are easy to use; and the classification and regression trees (CART), which assess the periodontal prognosis based on a single affected tooth. Additionally, there are orthodontic-periodontal combined risk assessment systems and implant periapical risk assessment systems tailored for patients needing multidisciplinary treatment. This review focuses on the current application status of periodontal risk assessment systems.

Current research status of animal models for acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

Acute-on-chronic liver failure has complex conditions， rapid progression， and a high mortality rate， and further studies are still needed to clarify its pathogenesis and etiology. The establishment of animal models for acute-on-chronic liver failure can not only provide a good basis for exploring the pathogenesis of acute-on-chronic liver failure， but also provide an experimental basis for clinical treatment. Through a literature review， this article summarizes the methods commonly used to establish the animal models of acute-on-chronic liver failure， including carbon tetrachloride combined with LPS/GaIN， thioacetamide combined with LPS， serum albumin， and bile duct ligation. This article analyzes the characteristics of various animal models， so as to provide documentary and experimental bases for further exploration of more ideal animal models.

Establishment and application of animal models for portal vein thrombosis / 临床肝胆病杂志

Portal vein thrombosis （PVT） refers to thromboembolism that occurs in the extrahepatic main portal vein and/or intrahepatic portal vein branches. PVT is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors， but its pathogenesis remains unclear. Animal models are an important method for exploring the pathophysiological mechanism of PVT. Based on the different species of animals， this article reviews the existing animal models of PVT in terms of modeling methods， principles， advantages and disadvantages， and application.

Artificial intelligence ChatGPT in ophthalmology and scientific writing / 国际眼科杂志(Guoji Yanke Zazhi)

ChatGPT is a large language models(LLMs)that uses deep learning techniques to produce human-like responses to natural language inputs. It belongs to the family of generative pre-training transformer(GPT)models currently publicly available developed by OpenAI in November 2022. ChatGPT is capable of capturing the nuances and intricacies of human language, generating appropriate and contextually relevant responses. It can assist medical professionals in various tasks, such as research, diagnosis, patient monitoring, and medical education, from identifying research programs to assisting in clinical and laboratory diagnosis, to know new developments in their fields and scientific writing. ChatGPT has also attracted increasing attention and widely used in ophthalmology. However, the use of ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence tools in such tasks comes now with several limitations, ethical and legal concerns, such as credibility, plagiarism, copyright infringement, and biases. Future research can focus on developing new methods to mitigate these limitations while harnessing the benefits of ChatGPT in medicine and related aspects.

An emergency room influx and trauma cases prediction in a Brazilian ophthalmological hospital by an ophthalmologist without code experience / Predição do influxo de atendimentos e casos de trauma em um serviço de urgência oftalmológico brasileiro realizado por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação

ABSTRACT Purpose: The emergency medical service is a fundamental part of healthcare, albeit crowded emergency rooms lead to delayed and low-quality assistance in actual urgent cases. Machine-learning algorithms can provide a smart and effective estimation of emergency patients' volume, which was previously restricted to artificial intelligence (AI) experts in coding and computer science but is now feasible by anyone without any coding experience through auto machine learning. This study aimed to create a machine-learning model designed by an ophthalmologist without any coding experience using AutoML to predict the influx in the emergency department and trauma cases. Methods: A dataset of 356,611 visits at Hospital da Universidade Federal de São Paulo from January 01, 2014 to December 31, 2019 was included in the model training, which included visits/day and the international classification disease code. The training and prediction were made with the Amazon Forecast by 2 ophthalmologists with no prior coding experience. Results: The forecast period predicted a mean emergency patient volume of 216.27/day in p90, 180.75/day in p50, and 140.35/day in p10, and a mean of 7.42 trauma cases/ day in p90, 3.99/day in p50, and 0.56/day in p10. In January of 2020, there were a total of 6,604 patient visits and a mean of 206.37 patients/day, which is 13.5% less than the p50 prediction. This period involved a total of 199 trauma cases and a mean of 6.21 cases/day, which is 55.77% more traumas than that by the p50 prediction. Conclusions: The development of models was previously restricted to data scientists' experts in coding and computer science, but transfer learning autoML has enabled AI development by any person with no code experience mandatory. This study model showed a close value to the actual 2020 January visits, and the only factors that may have influenced the results between the two approaches are holidays and dataset size. This is the first study to apply AutoML in hospital visits forecast, showing a close prediction of the actual hospital influx.

RESUMO Objetivo: Esse estudo tem como objetivo criar um modelo de Machine Learning por um oftalmologista sem experiência em programação utilizando auto Machine Learning predizendo influxo de pacientes em serviço de emergência e casos de trauma. Métodos: Um dataset de 366,610 visitas em Hospital Universitário da Universidade Federal de São Paulo de 01 de janeiro de 2014 até 31 de dezembro de 2019 foi incluído no treinamento do modelo, incluindo visitas/dia e código internacional de doenças. O treinamento e predição foram realizados com o Amazon Forecast por dois oftalmologistas sem experiência com programação. Resultados: O período de previsão estimou um volume de 206,37 pacientes/dia em p90, 180,75 em p50, 140,35 em p10 e média de 7,42 casos de trauma/dia em p90, 3,99 em p50 e 0,56 em p10. Janeiro de 2020 teve um total de 6.604 pacientes e média de 206,37 pacientes/dia, 13,5% menos do que a predição em p50. O período teve um total de 199 casos de trauma e média de 6,21 casos/dia, 55,77% mais casos do que a predição em p50. Conclusão: O desenvolvimento de modelos era restrito a cientistas de dados com experiencia em programação, porém a transferência de ensino com a tecnologia de auto Machine Learning permite o desenvolvimento de algoritmos por qualquer pessoa sem experiencia em programação. Esse estudo mostra um modelo com valores preditos próximos ao que ocorreram em janeiro de 2020. Fatores que podem ter influenciados no resultado foram feriados e tamanho do banco de dados. Esse é o primeiro estudo que aplicada auto Machine Learning em predição de visitas hospitalares com resultados próximos aos que ocorreram.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil / Previsão da incidência da leishmaniose visceral usando o modelo de média móvel integrado autorregressivo sazonal (SARIMA) no Maranhão, Brasil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.

Avaliação do perfil de citocinas séricas e óxido nítrico na hanseníase experimental murina / Evaluation of the serum cytokines profile and nitric oxide in experimental murine leprosy

Introdução: a hanseníase é uma do-ença infecciosa crônica causada pelo Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), um para-sita intracelular obrigatório. Assim, a resis-tência do hospedeiro a esse patógeno depen-de da imunidade celular. O uso de modelos experimentais tem permitido o estudo da hanseníase do ponto de vista imunológico, microbiológico e terapêutico, entretanto, as diferenças na progressão da infecção entre os modelos mais empregados (camundongos imunocompetentes, BALB/c, e camundongos congenitamente atímicos, nude) são pouco estudadas. Objetivo: comparar a evolução da infecção pelo M. leprae em camundongos BALB/c e nude quanto à multi-plicação bacilar e avaliação do perfil inflamatório sistêmico pela quantificação sérica de citocinas e óxido nítrico (NO). Métodos: os camundongos foram inoculados com M. leprae nos coxins plantares e avaliados aos 3, 5 e 8 meses após a infecção. Resultados: camundongos nude apresentaram multiplicação bacilar progressiva nos coxins plantares. Em camundongos BALB/c, o número de bacilos foi maior aos 5 meses. Em relação à quantificação de citocinas, nos camundongos BALB/c houve aumento de IL-2 e IL-17A e diminuição de IL-6 e NO aos 8 meses de inoculação. Nos camundongos nude, verificou-se o aumento do TNF aos 8 meses de inoculação e manutenção dos níveis de NO. Conclusão: os resultados encontrados sugerem que em camundongos BALB/c ocorre a ativação de uma resposta imune capaz de controlar a multiplicação do M. leprae, em contrapartida em camundongos nude a infecção é progressiva a despeito de altos níveis de TNF. (AU)

Introduction: leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae), an obligate intracellular parasite. Thus, host resistance to this pathogen depends on cellular immunity. The use of experimental models has made it possible to study leprosy from an immunological, microbiological, and therapeutic point of view. However, the differences in the progression of the infection between the most used models (immunocompetent mice, BALB/c, and congenitally athymic mice, nude) have been little studied. Objective: to compare the evolution of M. leprae infection in BALB/c and nude mice in terms of bacillary multiplication and evaluation of the systemic inflammatory profile by quantifying serum cytokines and nitric oxide (NO). Methods: the mice were inoculated with M. leprae in the footpads and evaluated at 3, 5, and 8 months after infection. Results: nude mice showed progressive bacillary multiplication in the footpads. In BALB/c mice, the number of bacilli was higher at 5 months. In terms of cytokine quantification, BALB/c mice showed an increase in IL-2 and IL-17A and a decrease in IL-6 and NO at 8 months of inoculation. In the nude mice, there was an increase in TNF at 8 months of inoculation and maintenance of NO levels. Conclusion: the results suggest that BALB/c mice activate an immune response capable of controlling the multiplication of M. leprae, whereas in nude mice the infection is progressive despite high levels of TNF. (AU)

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan / Previsão de produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas usando modelos inteligentes de dados no Paquistão

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan

Abstract This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), Willmotts index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.

Resumo Este estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver e avaliar modelos baseados em dados para previsão da produção florestal em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas na divisão florestal Gallies do distrito de Abbottabad, Paquistão. Os modelos Random Forest (RF) e Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) foram desenvolvidos e avaliados usando dados de produção de duas espécies (pinheiro-azul e abeto-prateado) como uma variável objetiva e dados climáticos (temperatura, umidade, precipitação e velocidade do vento) como preditivos variáveis. A precisão da previsão de ambos os modelos foi avaliada por meio de erro quadrático médio (RMSE), erro absoluto médio (MAE), coeficiente de correlação (r), erro quadrático médio relativo (RRMSE), Legates-McCabes (LM), índice de Willmott (WI) e métricas Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE). No geral, o modelo RF superou o modelo KRR devido à sua maior precisão na previsão do rendimento florestal. O estudo recomenda fortemente que o modelo RF seja aplicado em outras regiões do país para previsão do crescimento e produtividade florestal, o que pode ajudar no manejo e planejamento futuro da produtividade florestal no Paquistão.

Prediction of visceral leishmaniasis incidence using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA) in the state of Maranhão, Brazil

Abstract Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an infectious disease predominant in countries located in the tropics. The prediction of occurrence of infectious diseases through epidemiologic modeling has revealed to be an important tool in the understanding of its occurrence dynamic. The objective of this study was to develop a forecasting model for the incidence of VL in Maranhão using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (SARIMA). We collected monthly data regarding VL cases from the National Disease Notification System (SINAN) corresponding to the period between 2001 and 2018. The Box-Jenkins method was applied in order to adjust a SARIMA prediction model for VL general incidence and by sex (male or female) for the period between January 2019 and December 2013. For 216 months of this time series, 10,431 cases of VL were notified in Maranhão, with an average of 579 cases per year. With regard to age range, there was a higher incidence among the pediatric public (0 to 14 years of age). There was a predominance in male cases, 6437 (61.71%). The Box-Pierce test figures for overall, male and female genders supported by the results of the Ljung-Box test suggest that the autocorrelations of residual values act as white noise. Regarding monthly occurrences in general and by gender, the SARIMA models (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) and (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) were the ones that mostly adjusted to the data respectively. The model SARIMA has proven to be an adequate tool for predicting and analyzing the trends in VL incidence in Maranhão. The time variation determination and its prediction are decisive in providing guidance in health measure intervention.

Resumo A leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença de natureza infecciosa, predominante em países de zonas tropicais. A predição de ocorrência de doenças infecciosas através da modelagem epidemiológica tem se revelado uma importante ferramenta no entendimento de sua dinâmica de ocorrência. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver um modelo de previsão da incidência da LV no Maranhão usando o modelo de Média Móvel Integrada Autocorrelacionada Sazonal (SARIMA). Foram coletados os dados mensais de casos de LV através do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) correspondentes ao período de 2001 a 2018. O método de Box-Jenkins foi aplicado para ajustar um modelo de predição SARIMA para incidência geral e por sexo (masculino e feminino) de LV para o período de janeiro de 2019 a dezembro de 2023. Durante o período de 216 meses dessa série temporal, foram registrados 10.431 casos de LV no Maranhão, com uma média de 579 casos por ano. Em relação à faixa etária, houve maior registro no público pediátrico (0 a 14 anos). Houve predominância do sexo masculino, com 6437 casos (61,71%). Os valores do teste de Box-Pierce para incidência geral, sexo masculino e feminino reforçados pelos resultados do teste Ljung-Box sugerem que as autocorrelações de resíduos apresentam um comportamento de ruído branco. Para incidência mensal geral e por sexo masculino e feminino, os modelos SARIMA (2,0,0) (2,0,0), (0,1,1) (0,1,1) e (0,1,1) (2, 0, 0) foram os que mais se ajustaram aos dados, respectivamente. O modelo SARIMA se mostrou uma ferramenta adequada de previsão e análise da tendência de incidência da LV no Maranhão. A determinação da variação temporal e sua predição são determinantes no norteamento de medidas de intervenção em saúde.