Prediction of Prenatal Ultrasound Screening Staff's Situation in Beijing Based on ARIMA Model / 中国医学科学院学报

Objective To understand the current situation and predict the trends in number and composition of prenatal ultrasound screening staff in Beijing. Methods We analyzed the region,age,professional title and other characteristics of prenatal ultrasound screening personnel in Beijing during 2007-2015.We then built an ARIMA model basing on the current situation to predict the number and composition of the staff in 2016-2020. Results The number of prenatal ultrasound screening staff showed an upward trend in 2007-2020 and was predicted to reach 1269 in 2020.During this period,the educational achievement and professional title of the staff showed a downward trend,and the working years became shorter,mainly below 5 years.The proportion of resident doctors remained at 26.6%,and that of the staff receiving further education would reach 43.2% by the end of 2020. Conclusion The prediction under ARIMA model suggests that efforts should be made to strengthen the training of young doctors and provide them opportunities for further study.

Efficiency of Prenatal Ultrasound Screening Service in Beijing: A Malmquist-Data Envelopment Analysis / 中国医学科学院学报

To analyze the efficiency of prenatal ultrasound screening service in Beijing and thus optimize the secondary prevention system for birth defects in Beijing. Data were collected from the prenatal screening work reports of Beijing from 2010-2016.Key variables were extracted after data quality control.Data envelopment analysis was performed to analyze the efficiency and changing trend of ultrasound-based screening service and to compare the service efficiency between urban and suburban areas in Beijing. From 2010 to 2016,the technical efficiency of ultrasound screening services showed an increasing trend,and the geometric mean of technical efficiency in suburban areas was higher than that in urban areas.From 2010 to 2016,the total factor productivity of ultrasound screening service increased by 12.3% annually,in which the technical change increased by 12.0% annually;the technical efficiency increased by 0.3%,the pure technical efficiency increased by 13.9% annually,and the scale efficiency decreased by 0.4%. The technical efficiency of ultrasound screening service in Beijing increased from 2010 to 2016,and the total factor productivity improved.Technical change and pure technical efficiency change were the main reasons for the improvement.The resource allocation should be further optimized to improve the scale efficiency and enhance the training of prenatal ultrasound screening technicians.