RESUMEN
Introducción: de todos los carcinomas de tiroides, los diferenciados son los predominantes. Según la Asociación Colombiana de Endocrinología, la tasa de recaída puede ser de hasta del 30 %, especialmente en pacientes mayores de 45 años y con características tumorales agresivas. En esta investigación se estimó el tiempo libre de enfermedad que transcurre entre la finalización del tratamiento y la ocurren-cia de la primera recaída. Materiales y métodos: se tomó un archivo de datos con los registros de 469 pacientes con cáncer diferenciado de tiroides (cdt) tratados en una clínica especializada de cuarto nivel de complejidad en Bogotá (Colombia). Los datos se recolectaron entre enero de 1997 y diciembre de 2012 y se analizaron estadísticamente usando modelos paramétricos y no paramétricos para obtener las curvas de supervivencia y riesgo. Resultados: con el método no paramétrico se evidenció que en 8.5 años el 75 % de los pacientes no habrán presentado la primera recaída en cdt; mientras que en el método paramétrico el 50 % de los pacientes que no presentaron una tiroglobulina postratamiento menor o igual a 1 ng/mL y un tamaño del tumor menor o igual a 2 cm, su tiempo estimado de la primera recaída fue 29.2 años. Conclusiones: el tiempo libre de enfermedad y el riesgo de hacer recaída para pacientes con cdt está afectado por la presencia de un tamaño de tumor mayor a 2 cm en el momento de la consulta y una cantidad de tiroglobulina mayor a 1 ng/mL, registrada al terminar el tratamiento.
Introduction: Between all thyroid carcinomas, the differentiated are predominant. According to the Colombian Association of Endocrinology, the relapse rate can be up to 30%, especially in patients older than 45 years old and with aggressive tumor characteristics. In this investigation, the time that elapses between the initial surgical treatment and the first relapse of the disease was estimated. Materials and methods: A data file was taken with the records of 469 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (cdt) treated in a specialized clinic of fourth level of complexity iv in the city of Bogotá (Colombia). Data were collected between January 1997 and December 2012 and were statistically analyzed using para-metric and non-parametric models to obtain survival curves and risk. Results: With the non-parametric method, it is evident that in 8.5 years 75% of the patients will not have presented the first relapse in cdt. While applying the parametric method 50% of patients who do not have a postreatment thyroglobulin or one less than or equal to 1 ng/mL and a tumour size less than or equal to 2 cm, their estimated time of First relapse was 29.2 years. Conclusions: Disease-free time and the risk of relapse for patients with cdt is affected by the presence of a tumor size greater than 2 cm at the time of consultation and levels of thyroglobulin greater than 1 ng/mL, recorded at the end of the treatment.
Introdução: de todos os carcinomas da tireoide, os diferenciados são os predominantes. Segundo a Associação Colombiana de Endocrinologia, a taxa de recaída pode ser até 30%, principalmente em pacien-tes com mais de 45 anos e com características de agressividade tumoral. Nesta investigação, estimou-se o tempo decorrido entre o tratamento cirúrgico inicial e a primeira recaída. Materiais e métodos: tomou-se um arquivo de dados com os prontuários de 469 pacientes com câncer diferenciado de tireoide (cdt) atendidos em uma clínica especializada de quarto nível de complexidade na cidade de Bogotá (Colombia). Coletaram-se os dados entre janeiro de 1997 e dezembro de 2012, que depois foram analisados estatisti-camente usando modelos paramétricos e não paramétricos para encontrar curvas de sobrevida e risco. Resultados: com o método não paramétrico, evidenciou-se que, em 8,5 anos, 75% dos pacientes não terão apresentado a primeira recaída na cdt. Enquanto na aplicação do método paramétrico, 50% dos pacientes que não apresentaram tireoglobulina pós-tratamento ou valores menores ou iguais a 1 ng/mL e tamanho do tumor menor ou igual a 2 cm, seu tempo estimado de primeira recaída foi de 29,2 anos. Conclusões: o tempo livre de doença e o risco de recaída, para pacientes com cdt são afetados pela presença de tama-nho de tumor maior a 2 cm no momento da consulta e uma quantidade de tireoglobulina maior a 1 ng/mL, registrada ao terminar o tratamento.
Asunto(s)
Humanos , Pacientes , Glándula Tiroides , Registros Médicos , Enfermedad , MétodosRESUMEN
In order to find an appropriate model suitable for a multistate survival experiment, 634 patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) were selected to illustrate the method of analysis.After transplantation, there were 4 possible situations for a patient: disease free, relapse but still alive, death before relapse, and death after relapse. The last 3 events were considered as treatment failure. The results showed that the risk of death before relapse was higher than that of the relapse,especially in the first year after transplantation with competing-risk method. The result of patients with relapse time less than 12 months was much poor by the Kaplan-Meier method. And the multistate survival models were developed, which were detailed and informative based on the analysis of competing risks and Kaplan-Meier analysis. With the multistate survival models, a further analysis on conditional probability was made for patients who were disease free and still alive at month 12 after transplantation. It was concluded that it was possible for an individual patient to predict the 4 possible probabilities at any time. Also the prognoses for relapse either death or not and death either before or afterrelapse may be given. Furthermore, the conditional probabilities for patients who were disease free and still alive in a given time after transplantation can be predicted.