Adults' perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children.

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 x reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.

Diarrhoea episodes and treatment-seeking behaviour in a slum area of North Jakarta, Indonesia.

Visits to household during a census in an impoverished area of north Jakarta were used for exploring the four-week prevalence of diarrhoea, factors associated with episodes of diarrhoea, and the patterns of healthcare use. For 160,261 urban slum-dwellers, information was collected on the socioeconomic status of the household and on diarrhoea episodes of individual household residents in the preceding four weeks. In households with a reported case of diarrhoea, the household head was asked which form of healthcare was used first. In total, 8,074 individuals (5%)--13% of children aged less than five years and 4% of adults--had a diarrhoea episode in the preceding four weeks. The two strongest factors associated with a history of diarrhoea were a diarrhoea episode in another household member in the four weeks preceding the interview (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 11.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.4-11.8) and age less than five years (adjusted OR 3.4; 95% CI 3.2-3.5). Of the 8,074 diarrhoea cases, 1,969 (25%) treated themselves, 1,822 (23%) visited a public-health centre (PHC), 1,462 (18%) visited a private practitioner or a private clinic, 1,318 (16%) presented at a hospital, 753 (9%) bought drugs from a drug vendor, and 750 (9%) used other healthcare providers, such as belian (traditional healers). Children with diarrhoea were most often brought to a PHC, a private clinic, or a hospital for treatment. Compared to children, adults with diarrhoea were more likely to treat themselves. Individuals from households in the lowest-income group were significantly more likely to attend a PHC for treatment of diarrhoea compared to individuals from households in the middle- and higher-income groups.