VIGILA: un instrumento para la vigilancia epidemiológica de enfermedades transmisibles / VIGILA: a tool for the epidemiologic surveillance of transmissible diseases

It is described an instrument for the epidemiological surveillance of communicable diseases (VIGILA) that is based on the generalization of a modification of the statistical model proposed by Serfling for the prognosis of the endemic levels of the rates of communicable diseases in a period of 52 weeks (1 year). The comparison made between the observed rates and the prognosticated rates allows to detect unusual patterns of this indicator. The observation of rates over the higher limit of the prognosis interval during successive periods is suggested as a signal of alert. The introduction of this method in a computer program allows its application in the epidemiological surveillance units at the different levels of the health system.