On-road vehicle emissions forecast using ive simulation model

During the recent decades, rapid urbanization growth has led to even faster growth of motor vehicles and especially in large cities. Hence, evaluation of the actual level of traffic emissions has gained more interest. This paper, for the first time, presents a bottom-up approach for evaluation of vehicular emissions in Tehran- the capital of Iran- using the International Vehicle Emission [IVE] model. The IVE model uses local vehicle technology levels and its distributions, power based driving factors, vehicle soak distributions and meteorological parameters to tailor the model for specific evaluation of emissions. The results of this study demonstrate that carbon monoxide [CO] emission with 244.45 ton/hr during peak traffic hour is the most abundant criteria pollutant. About 25% of this quantity is emitted during start-up periods. Other pollutants such as NO[x], VOC[s], PM, VOC[evap] and SO[x] are ranked after CO accordingly. Also, carbon dioxide [CO[2] emissions of 1744.22 ton/hr during the study period indicate that light vehicles are responsible for more than 82% of this amount. Based on IVE's evaluation, about 25% of the total vehicle emissions in Tehran come from districts 2, 4 and 6 respectively. It has further been inferred that the development of public transportation systems and proper land-use and urban spatial planning for various centers in these districts are essential

Estimating temporal and seasonal variation of ventilation coefficients

The main objective of a research program, whose output is presented here, has been to estimate "Ventilation Coefficients", a critical parameter in determining air pollution concentration near the surface ground which signifies the ability for natural ventilation of an air shed in an urban or rural area. Relevant measured data from the city of Tehran has been used to calibrate and further demonstrate the validity of the mathematical model developed. Since most polluted mega cities require significant air pollution modeling activities, capable of providing relatively reliable outputs, calculating such highly important parameter is by far the most important outcome of this research. The Ventilation Coefficients have been estimated assuming normal adiabatic lapse rates and utilizing ten-year daily atmospheric radio-sound data. Mean Maximum Mixing Depth, Wind Speed at Mean Maximum Mixing Depth, and the Ventilation Coefficients have been computed and as a result it has been noted that despite the fact than Mean Maximum Mixing Depth peacks in June and Wind Speed Coefficient to remain at its peack almost constant over April-June time span. It may also be observed for an urban area such as Tehran, the Ventilation Coefficient stands maximum in spring at 22329.17 m[2]/s and minimum in fall at 22329.17 m[2]/s

environmental and economic analysis for reducing energy subsides

This paper estimates the trend of total energy subsidies from year 2003 [that is 16.68% of GDP] and running a model, predicts that energy subsidies will reach to 20% of GDP by 2019 if subsidies continue. Also environmental damage costs of energy consumption have been entered the model [Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis Model: ECBA Model] in addition to the vast amounts of subsidies. So damages caused by energy consumption as air pollution and Green House Gases have been considered as an attempt to internalize energy cycle externalities. Using an ECBA Model which considers changes in level of social welfare and environmental quality as probable benefits, the Benefit/Cost ratio for running price reform policy under two scenarios has been analyzed and calculated. The analysis shows that reducing energy subsidies for each energy form is considerably beneficial. Apart from the environmental benefits, the increase in prices can be a base for a redistribution of income within the poor deciles of economy and this policy would increase the government revenue and economic growth in long-term

interactive environmental economy model for energy cycle in Iran

The growing world economy calls for saving natural resources with sustainable development framework. This paper intends to look at the environment-energy interface [impacts on the environment stemming form the energy sector] and to propose measures for reducing this impact without trying to impede economic development. In addition, this paper estimates the amounts of energy subsidies about 20% of Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2019 if the conditions do not change. Meanwhile, environmental damage from air pollution has been assessed by scaling according to GDP per capita measured in purchase power parity [PPP] terms. Using this approach, the total damage from air pollution in 2001 was assessed about $7billion; equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. Lacking price reform and control policies, the authors estimate that damage in Iran will grow to 10.9% of GDP by 2019. In line with difficulties of eliminating subsidies, a list of 25 measures has been analyzed, using the environmental cost-benefit analysis and based on cost-effectiveness of the policies to verify which ones would be implemented. Finally the financial effects of implementing different combinations of price reform and carrying out those policies on the state budget, damage costs and subsidies have been calculated