Résumé
Objective] By the use of GM(1,1) model to predict mortality trends of children un-der 5 years, on the basis of the analysis of cause of death in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District of Shanghai City . [ Methods] Nearly 5 years of monitoring data were used for analysis of the cause of death , and the grey model ( GM) was used to fit and predict mortality . [ Results] The death of children under 5 was mainly infant death and the infant death was mainly newborns death from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District.During this five-year period, children mortality under 5 fluctuated from 3.30‰ to 4 .98‰and was slightly increased in 2010 .The main cause of death in the neonatal period was birth as-phyxia ,accounting for 31 .82%.For infant period , The first cause was congenital anomaly , accounting for 30.43% and the second cause was birth asphyxia ,accounting for 20.29%.The fitting effect of GM was fine and the predicted mortality of children under 5 years was 3.88‰in 2013. [Conclusion] Congenital a-nomalies , birth asphyxia and accident death seriously threaten the lives of children under 5 years.We must strengthen neonatal screening , neonatal accidental death education , thus effectively reducing the mortality of children under 5.The fitting effect of GM(1, 1) on mortality rate of children under 5 is good and can be ap-plied for prediction .