Riesgo de embarazo temprano: construcción y validación de un instrumento predictor / Risk in early pregnancy: construction and validation of a predictor instrument

An early pregnancy risk scale, with scores ranging from 11 to 66 points from lower to higher risk, was constructed using variables associated with teenagers` pregnancy. This scale was applied to 3000 female teenagers, coming from Metropolitan Santiago public schools. The sample was divided in three risk groups: group A (high risk) with scores equal or over 35 points, group B (low risk) with scores equal or below 20 points and a group C (intermediate risk) with scores between 20.1 and 34.9 points. These girls were followed during 2 years. During this period, 84 girls became pregnant, 24 of 184 (13 per cent ) in group A, 60 of 2332 (2.6 per cent ) in group C and none of 307 in group B. There were 104 school desertions in group A and 37 in group B. To study associations and analyze risk, the sample was divided in two risk groups: high, with scores over 27 and low, with scores below 27. There was a high association between pregnancy risk score and the occurence of pregnancy (RR 5.25 p<0.0001) and school desertion (RR 3.32 p<0.0001). Pregnancy was predicted with a 78 per cent sensitivity and 56 per cent specificity. The importance variable weighing using multiple regression models, to improve the predictor`s sensitivity and specificity is discussed

Variables psicosociales y familiares asociadas con el embarazo de adolescentes / Psychosocial and family characteristics associated with adolescents pregnancy

Preventive measures for teenage pregnancy (TP), would decrease infant mortality early undernutrition and statal social expenditure. The cost of programs for TP would decrease with a sensitive risk indicator. We searched some pysoshocial and familial parameters, useful to built up this indicator. Self steem (Piers-Harris est), intrafamilial realtionship (Familial Apgar of Magdaleno) and the use of break time were studied in 60 pregnant teenagers (PT), 60 non pregnant teenagers at a low risk of pregnancy (LRP) and 60 non pregnant teenagers at a high risk of pregnancy (HRP). PT and HRP showed lower self steem than LRP (88,3, 70,0 Y 41,6 per cent respectivelly, under 7 points) lower familial apgar (61.6, 50 y 8.3 under score 6) and lower the quality of use of break time (66.7, 74.1 and 31.7 per cent respectivilly with regular or deficient quality). The self steem intrafamilial relationship hand use of break time were associated to early pregnancy and high risk of pregnancy. These parameters are import to built up a sensitive risk indicator of early pregnancy in order to decrease the prevalence of this serious problem