Comparison on predictive capacity of ARIMA model and LSTM model for incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To predict the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shijiazhuang using the multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and long short term memory (LSTM) model, lay theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods Multiple seasonal ARIMA model and LSTM model were established separately by using Eviews 8.0 and python 3.7.1 according to the data of monthly incidence of HFMD from January 2013 to May 2018 in Shijiazhuang, and the data from June 2018 to May 2019 were used to verify the prediction precision of model. Finally, the monthly incidence from June to August 2019 was predicted. Results Based on the monthly incidence from January 2013 to May 2018, the optimal models, ARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,1,2)12 and LSTM model were established. Mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) of ARIMA and LSTM model were 22.14 and 10.03 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June to December 2018, while MAPE of ARIMA and LSTM model were 43.84 and 25.26 respectively based on the monthly incidence from June 2018 to May 2019. These results indicated that LSTM model was superior to ARIMA model in model fitting degree and predicting accuracy, which was relatively consistent with the actual situation. Conclusions LSTM model is able to fit and predict the incidence trend of HFMD well in Shijiazhuang. It can provide guidance to HFMD epidemic prediction and alerting.

G-CSF and Its Receptor in Hematonosis / 中国实验血液学杂志

The granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), now referred to as CSF3, is a very important cell growth factor that supports the proliferation, survival, and differentiation of neutrophilic progenitor cells, and also is a strong immune regulator of T cells and a promising therapeutic tool in acute graft versus host disease (GVHD). G-CSF acts by binding to its receptor G-CSFR (also called CSF3R), a member of the cytokine receptor type I superfamily, which after binding with G-CSF activates the canonical Janus kinase (Jak)/signal transducer, activator of transcription (STAT)and Ras/Raf/MAP kinase pathways. G-CSF has been applied to the clinic to treat congenital and acquired neutropenia before or during courses of intensive chemotherapy. It has also been applied to mobilize hematopoietic stem cells into the peripheral blood for Auto-or allogeneic transplantation, and the priming strategies designed to enhance the sensitivity of leukemia stem cells to cytotoxic agents in protocols aimed to induce their differentiation, accompanying growth arrest, and cell death. With the rapid development of molecular genetics and clinical research, CSF3R mutations have been implicated in the progression of severe congenital neutropenia (SCN) to leukemia. Recently, CSF3R mutations have been discovered frequently in chronic neutrophilic leukemia (CNL). Such findings might provide the theoretical basis for the targeted therapy. In this review, the clinical application of G-CSF receptor in hematonosis is briefhy summarized.

Quality assessment of iodized salt and a survey of urinary iodine level in Shijiazhuang city from 2004 to 2008 / 中国地方病学杂志

Objective To assess the quality of iodized salt and investigate the urinary iodine level of pupils and women after implementation of universal salt iodization in Shijiazhuang city. Methods Between 2004 and 2008, nine salt samples were randomly collected from wholesale enterprises of 5 different directions of east,south, west, north and center in Shijiazhuang city every month. Meanwhile, eight salt samples, four urine samples of women, were randomly collected in each of the 8 households of 210 villages selected from 23 counties. Between 2004 and 2008, twenty urine samples of 8 - 10 year old pupils were collected in each of 160 schools from the 23 counties. Direct titration method was used for salt iodine determination, iodine concentration in urine was detected by the method of ammonium persulfate digestion-As3+-Ce4 + catalytic spectrophotometry. Results At wholesale level, the qualified rate of iodized salt was above 99%. At household level, the consuming rate of iodized salt was above 95%, and the rate of consuming non-iodized salt was less than 5%. The rate of qualified iodized salt was above 90% in every year except 2004(87.10%), and the rate of consuming qualified iodized salt was above 90% in those years except 2004(83.08%). Urinary median iodine level of both the pupils and the women was higher than 100 μg/L, and the rate of urinary iodine level that less than 50 μg/L was below 10%. Conclusions The quality assessment of iodized salt from wholesale companies and related indices of urinary iodine level of pupils, women and household iodized salt have already reached the national standard for eliminating iodine deficiency disorders.