RÉSUMÉ
Objective To understand the HIV/AIDS burden and the disease burden attributed to various risk factors in four countries with different socio-demographic index (SDI) (China, United States, Russia, and Afghanistan) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the HIV/AIDS attributable disease burden from 2020 to 2029. Methods The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study data was used to describe and compare the incidence, prevalence, death, and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in the four countries. The standardized DALYs attributed to various risk factors in different age groups of HIV/AIDS in the four countries in 1990 and 2019 were compared. R4.3.0 was used to construct an autoregressive moving average mixed model to predict the attributable disease burden in each country over the next decade. Results Compared with 1990, in 2019, the standardized incidence rate, standardized prevalence rate, standardized mortality rate, and standardized DALYs rate in China and the other two countries, except the United States, showed an increase. People aged 10 to 49 years old were a key group for disease burden, and the main risk factors for disease burden varied among different countries and age groups. The autoregressive moving average mixed model predicted that the main risk factor for Russia in the next decade would be injecting drugs, while unsafe sexual behavior would occur in the other three countries. Conclusion There are differences in disease burden and risk factors among different genders and age groups globally and in the four different SDI countries. Therefore, differences should be fully considered to determine the focus of HIV/AIDS prevention and control and rationally allocate health resources.