Résumé
Objective To explore the feasibility and operability in identifying the therapeutic dominant stages of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)based on subdivision model of disease course.Methods The hierarchical Bayesian model was used to differentiate the disease course of 125 cases of premature ovarian failure(POF),and the disease course of POF were divided into the occult stage,diminished ovarian reserve(DOR)stage,premature ovarian insufficiency(POI)stage,and POF stage.An then the paired sample t-test,Pearson correlation analysis and expert in-depth interview were used for the analysis of the therapeutic effects of TCM for POF at various stages.Results(1)Compared with POF stage,DOR and POI stages were frequently intervened by Chinese patent medicine.(2)In DOR(complicated with POI)stage and POF stage,there was significant difference between the degree of TCM intervention and the therapeutic effect(t =-3.70,P＜0.001).(3)The degree of TCM intervention was positively correlated with treatment outcomes in the DOR stage(r = 0.679,P＜0.001),so did in the POF stage(r = 0.432,P＜0.001),but the correlation in the POF stage was slightly lower than that in the DOR stage.(4)The results of in-depth interviews with experts of TCM gynecology showed that in the concealed phase of POF,the prognosis would be most favorable if TCM regulation and intervention were performed.In the DOR stage and POI stage,treatment with Chinese medicine prescriptions usually brought about better curative effect and prognosis.For the patients at POF stage,the therapeutic effect of TCM depended on the patients'compliance and the treatment course,and the effect was relatively not as good as that of the previous stages.Conclusion In the DOR stage and POF stage,the higher the degree of TCM intervention,the better the prognosis will be achieved for the patients treated with western medicine.In the POF stage,the efficacy of TCM intervention is reduced to a certain extent compared with the DOR stage.The results indicated that it is feasible and operable to identify the TCM therapeutic dominant stages based on the subdivision model of disease course.