Death Trend of Lung Cancer in China from 2006 to 2020 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze the trend of lung cancer death rate in China from 2006 to 2020 to provide reference for the prevention of lung cancer. Methods The data of Chinese lung cancer deaths from 2006 to 2020 were collected from the health statistical yearbook.The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to evaluate the age, period, and birth cohort effect of lung cancer deaths. Results The overall lung cancer mortality of Chinese residents showed an upward trend from 2006 to 2020.The age effect of lung cancer death risk increased with age, and the period effect continued to increase with age.The cohort effect showed that the lung cancer death risk of residents born after 1924 showed a downward trend. Conclusion The prevention and treatment of lung cancer in urban and rural residents aged 50 and above and the treatment of high-risk factors of lung cancer must be continuously strengthened.The period effect on lung cancer should be further explored, and the early intervention of young cohort should be given attention.

Effect of Age and Sex on Stroke Mortality of Young and Middle-aged Adults in China, 2002-2019, and Predictions to 2030 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to examine the trends in stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults in China.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from the China national vital registration system. Significant changes in mortality were assessed by Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to explain the reasons for the changes. Future mortality and counts were predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.@*RESULTS@#Between 2002 and 2019, a total of 6,253,951 stroke mortality in young and middle-aged adults were recorded. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) of women showed a downward trend. The annual percent changes (APC) were -3.5% (-5.2%, -1.7%) for urban women and -2.8% (-3.7%, -1.9%) for rural women. By contrast, the AAMRs per 100,000 for rural men aged 25-44 years continued to rise from 9.40 to 15.46. The AAMRS for urban men aged 25-44 years and urban and rural men aged 45-64 years did not change significantly. Between 2020 and 2030, the projected stroke deaths are 1,423,584 in men and 401,712 in women.@*CONCLUSION@#Significant sex and age disparities in the trends of stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults were identified in China. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the burden of stroke in the young generation, especially for rural men, with a focus on the prevention and management of high risk factors.

Trends in age-, period- and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 / 预防医学

Objective@#To investigate the trend in incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province from 2008 to 2022, and to examine the age-period-cohort effect, so as to provide the basis for the formulation of hepatitis C prevention strategies. @*Methods@#Demographic data and incidence data of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System, and the trend in incidence of hepatitis C was analyzed using average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC). The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of hepatitis C were examined with an age-period-cohort model. @*Results@#The average annual incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 and 2022 was 20.26/105, with a male incidence of 20.04/105 and a female incidence of 20.47/105. The incidence of hepatitis C initially rose and then fell (AAPC=5.375%, P<0.05), with a rising trend from 2008 to 2018 (APC=13.370%, P<0.05) and a decreasing trend from 2018 to 2022 (APC=-12.231%, P<0.05). The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and the 80-84 age group had the highest risk (RR=11.420, 95%CI: 7.631-17.090) in relative to the 45-49 age group. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and an increased risk of hepatitis C was seen from 2013 to 2017 (RR=1.393, 95%CI: 1.272-1.525) and a decreased risk was seen from 2018 to 2022 (RR=1.237, 95%CI: 1.072-1.428) in relative to the period from 2008 to 2012. The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with the cohort, and a higher risk was found in the 1965-1984 cohort (all RR>1.300) in relative to the 1960-1964 cohort. The incidence of hepatitis C, the age and period effects in men and women, and the cohort effects in men were consistent with the whole population. In addition to the 1965-1984 cohort, a higher risk was found in the 2000-2014 cohort in women (all RR>1.250).@*Conclusions@#From 2008 to 2022, the incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City experienced a notable rise and subsequent decline. The incidence of hepatitis C increased with age, with higher risks seen among middle-aged and elderly people.

Trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 based on an age-period-cohort mode / 预防医学

Objective@#To investigate the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 and to examine the effect of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS, so as to provide insights into the improvements of the HIV/AIDS control measures. @*Methods@#Data pertaining to incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) datasets, and the trends in incidence of HIV/AIDS in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) using a jointpoint regression model. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of HIV/AIDS in China were examined with an age-period-cohort model. @*Results@#The age-standardized incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared an overall tendency towards a rise in China from 1990 (0.80/105) to 2019 (2.21/105) (AAPC=3.209%, P<0.05), and the incidence of HIV/AIDS showed a tendency towards a rise from 1990 to 1997 (AAPC=9.044%, P<0.05) and from 1997 to 2003 (AAPC=17.598%, P<0.05), a decline from 2006 to 2014 (AAPC=-8.412%, P<0.05) and remained relatively stable from 2003 to 2006 and from 2014 to 2019 (both P>0.05). The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with age, and peaked among patients at ages of 25 to 29 years (4.93/105) and 75 to 79 years (7.38/105). The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time, and a reduced risk of HIV/AIDS was found from 1990 to 1994 (RR=0.297), from 1995 to 1999 (RR=0.523), from 2005 to 2009 (RR=0.737), from 2010 to 2014 (RR=0.412) and from 2015 to 2019 (RR=0.351) in relative to the period from 2000 to 2004. The risk of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise with the cohort, and a higher risk of HIV/AIDS was found in the 1930-1934 cohort (RR=1.880) and 2000-2004 cohort (RR=2.978) in relative to the 1955-1959 cohort. @*Conclusions@#The incidence of HIV/AIDS appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, and remained at a low level since 2014. The adolescents and elderly were high-risk groups of HIV/AIDS. A variety of health education interventions and intensified active HIV/AIDS screening are recommended.

Liver cancer mortality in Mexico: trend analysis from 1998 to 2018 / Mortalidad por cáncer hepático en México: análisis de tendencias de 1998 a 2018

Abstract: Objective: To examine overall, sex, and state-specific liver cancer mortality trends in Mexico. Materials and methods: Joinpoint regression was used to examine the trends in age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer between 1998-2018. Estimated annual percent change with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were computed. Age-period-cohort models were used to assess the effects of age, calendar year, and birth cohort. Results: The state-specific mortality rates ranged from 3.34 (Aguascalientes) to 7.96 (Chiapas) per 100 000 person-years. Sex-specific rates were roughly equal, nationwide. Overall, we observed a statistically significant decrease in liver cancer mortality rates between 1998-2018 (annual percent change, -0.8%; 95%CI -1.0, -0.6). The overall age-period-cohort models suggest that birth cohort may be the most important factor driving the trends. Conclusions: While there was overall decline in liver cancer mortality, differences in rates by region were observed. The regional differences may inform future studies of liver cancer etiology across the country.

Resumen: Objetivo: Examinar la tendencia general, por sexo y estado, de mortalidad por cáncer hepático en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizó regresión joinpoint para examinar las tendencias en las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad de cáncer hepático (1998-2018). Se estimó el cambio porcentual anual con intervalos de confianza al 95% (IC95%). Se usaron modelos de edad-periodo-cohorte para evaluar el efecto de edad, año calendario y cohorte de nacimiento. Resultados: La mortalidad osciló entre 3.34 (Aguascalientes) y 7.96 (Chiapas) por 100 000 años-persona. La mortalidad por sexo fue relativamente similar a nivel nacional. La mortalidad general disminuyó entre 1998-2018 (cambio porcentual anual, -0.8%; IC95% -1.0, -0.6). La cohorte de nacimiento parece ser el factor más importante que afecta las tendencias. Conclusiones: A pesar de la disminución de mortalidad por cáncer hepático, se observó variación regional en las tasas. Estas diferencias podrían informar estudios futuros sobre la etiología de cáncer hepático en México.

Epidemiological trends and major risk attribution analysis of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 / 中华消化外科杂志

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological trends and major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The descriptive epidemiological method was conducted. The overall incidence rate, mortality rate, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Database. Age-standardized rates were calculated based on the worldwide standardized population structure provided by GBD Database 2019. Observation indicators: (1) incidence and motality of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea in 2019; (2) age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019; (3) trends of ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019; (4) trends of major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. Count data were represented as absolute numbers, percentages and ratios. Joinpoint V.4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in different time periods and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The age-period-cohort model in STATA V.15.0 software was used to analyze the influence of different ages, periods and birth cohorts on the risk of onset and death of pancreatic cancer after controlling the other two variables, with the risk effect size described as relative risk (95% CI). Results:(1) Incidence and motality of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea in 2019. In 2019, the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 0.07/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 64.01/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.09/100,000 to 94.71/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 47.47/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 0.04/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 79.58/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.05/100,000 to 116.50/100,000 in males and from 0.03/100,000 to 59.69/100,000 in females. The incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in Japan increased from 0.03/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 162.26/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.03/100,000 to 177.67/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 153.67/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in Japan increased from 0.02/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 154.88/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.02/100,000 to 170.93/100,000 in males and from 0.02/100,000 to 145.94/100,000 in females. The incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased from 0.04/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 136.78/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.03/100,000 to 153.78/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 129.73/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased from 0.02/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 135.98/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.02/100,000 to 156.21/100,000 in males and from 0.02/100,000 to 127.59/100,000 in females. The peak incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China were found in males aged 65-69 years, and the overall incidence and mortality of males in different age groups were higher than those of females in the same age group. In Japan, the peak incidence of pancreatic cancer occurred in females aged 80-84 years and the peak mortality occurred in males aged 75-79 years. The morbidity and mortality of males aged <80 years were higher than those of females in the same age group, while the morbidity and mortality of males aged ≥80 years were lower than those of females in the same age group. In South Korea, the peak incidence of pancreatic cancer occurred in females aged 80-84 years, and the peak mortality occurred in males aged 70-74 years. The morbidity and mortality of males aged <75 years were higher than those of females in the same age group, while the morbidity and mortality of males aged ≥75 years were lower than those of females in the same age group. (2) Age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. Age effect: after adjustment for the period and cohort effects, the risk of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in both males and females of China, Japan and South Korea increased with age, which is more obvious in females than males, and more obvious in Japanese than Chinese and Korean populations. Period effect: after adjustment for age and cohort effects, the risk of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in both males and females of China, Japan and South Korea increased from 1990 to 2019, with the period effect more significant in the Chinese population. Cohort effect: after adjustment for age and period effects, the risk of morbidity and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer decreased with the passage of birth cohort in China, Japan and South Korea. (3) Trends of ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China increased yearly from 1990 to 2019, and the ASIR and ASMR in 2019 were 1.82 times and 1.79 times those in 1990, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in Japan showed a slowly increasing trend, and the ASIR and ASMR in 2019 were 1.09 times and 1.05 times those in 1990, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased firstly, then decreased, and slowly increased. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in China was 2.08% (95% CI as 1.91% to 2.24%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 2.02% (95% CI as 1.86% to 2.19%, P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in Japan was 0.28% (95% CI as 0.15% to 0.42%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 0.13% (95% CI as 0.03% to 0.24%, P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in South Korea was 0.50% (95% CI as 0.21% to 0.80%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 0.15% (95% CI as -0.10% to 0.40%, P>0.05). (4) Trends of major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. The main risk factors for pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 were smoking, high fasting glucose and high body mass index (BMI). The trend of pancreatic cancer related death, mainly attributed to smoking, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 31.4% in 1990 to 34.1% in 2000, then decreased to 31.1% in 2015, and then showed a slow increase to 31.7% in 2019. The proportion of Chinese females increased from 6.7% in 1990 to 10.4% in 2005 and then dropped to 8.7% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males decreased from 38.8% in 1990 to 26.9% in 2019 and the proportion of Japanese females decreased from 20.9% in 1990 to 14.8% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males decreased from 37.5% in 1990 to 30.3% in 2019 and the proportion of South Korean females decreased from 12.6% in 1990 to 10.0% in 2019. The trend of pancreatic cancer related death proportion, mainly attributed to high fasting blood glucose, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 5.9% in 1990 to 7.1% in 2019 and the propor-tion of Chinese females increased from 6.2% in 1990 to 6.8% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males increased from 7.0% in 1990 to 7.7% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 5.0% in 1990 to 5.5% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males increased from 6.8% in 1990 to 9.7% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 6.1% in 1990 to 8.2% in 2019. The trend of pancreatic cancer related deaths proportion, attributed mainly to high BMI, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 1.3% in 1990 to 3.0% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 2.1% in 1990 to 4.3% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males increased from 2.0% in 1990 to 2.4% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 3.1% in 1990 to 3.4% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males increased from 1.9% in 1990 to 3.1% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 3.4% in 1990 to 4.3% in 2019. Conclusions:The incidence of pancreatic cancer in China may continue to rise but to be stable in Japan and South Korea. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in females, especially elderly women, needs more attention. Smoking remains the most critical risk factor for pancreatic cancer. More attention should also be paid to the increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with high BMI and high fasting plasma glucose.

Tendency analysis of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To analyze the tendency of incidence and mortality of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 through 2019 and to estimate the age-period-cohort effect.Methods:Based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, the incidence and mortality data of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 were extracted. The trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of mechanical injuries among Chinese residents by gender was analyzed using the joinpoint regression model, and the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The age-period-cohort model was used to quantitatively assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries.Results:① Overall tendency: from 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend (540.95/100 000 in 1990 vs. 815.34/100 000 in 2019), and the ASDR first increased slightly and then decreased (2.62/100 000 in 1990 vs. 2.87/100 000 in 2005 vs. 1.77/100 000 in 2019) among Chinese residents. During the observation period, ASIR and ASDR for mechanical injuries of male were higher than female. ② Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that the ASIR of mechanical injuries had a fluctuating trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then rising rapidly among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC = 1.42%, t = 9.59, P < 0.001). The ASIR of the Chinese male showed a slight decrease and then continued to increase (AAPC = 1.47%, t = 8.72, P < 0.001), while the ASIR of the Chinese female showed a rapid rising at first, then rapidly declining and then rising again (AAPC = 1.31%, t = 12.11, P < 0.001). From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR of mechanical injuries showed a fluctuating downward trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then rapidly decreasing among Chinese residents (AAPC = -1.39%, t = -6.72, P < 0.001). The decrease rate of ASDR among male was as same as that among all population (AAPC = -1.44%, t = -7.29, P < 0.001), but the decrease rate of ASDR in female was relatively slow (AAPC = -1.08%, t = -4.54, P < 0.001). ③ Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that, with the increase of age, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male and female in China increased, then decreased, and then increased rapidly. The first small peak was at the age of 45-49 years old in male and 65-69 years old in female. The overall death risk showed an increasing trend with age, with a slowly increasing trend before 75 years old, and a sudden increase after 75 years old. The peak age of death risk was between 90 and 94 years. In terms of period effect, the risk of mechanical injuries showed a gradually increasing trend with time among the overall population, male, and female in China, and the risk of death showed a trend of decreasing first and then rapidly increasing and then decreasing. In terms of cohort effect, the risk of mechanical injuries among the overall population, male, and female in China showed a gradual upward trend with the increase in the birth year, and the risk of death showed an M-shaped trend. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of mechanical injuries showed an increasing trend, and the mortality increased first and then decreased. Although the disease burden has improved, it is still high. More attention needs to be paid to the prevention and control of mechanical injuries, especially in the young population.

Increases in Height among Chinese Children and Adolescents by Gender: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To examine increases in average height among Chinese children and adolescents.@*Methods@#The data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted during the period 1989-2015. A stratified multistage cluster sampling method was utilized to select participants aged 2-22 years in each province. Linear regression was used to examine the effects of age, birth cohort, and survey period on height.@*Results@#A total of 15,227 males and 13,737 females were included in the final analysis. Age (A) showed a continuous effect on height. The average heights of the investigated groups increased continuously during the investigation period. By 2015, the average height of the overall group increased by 7.87 cm compared to the average height during the 1989 survey. Moreover, birth year (cohort, C) also had a stable effect on height. Using the height of individuals born in or before 1975 as a reference, the average height of each birth cohort increased in comparison to the previous birth cohort.@*Conclusions@#The height of Chinese children and adolescents was affected by age, period, and cohort effects, and this effect is governed by certain rules. The age-period-cohort model can be used to analyze the trends of children's and adolescent's heights. The findings provide a scientific basis for the formulation of children's and adolescents' growth and development policies in China.

Trends of Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Changning District of Shanghai / 肿瘤防治研究

Objective To analyze the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in Changning district of Shanghai from 1974 to 2013. Methods We calculated the age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality and the average annual percent changes for pancreatic cancer using Segi's world standard population and the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry. Age-period-cohort model was constructed to further assess the effect of age, diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality. Results During 1974-2013, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 6.49/105 and 6.01/105 in male, 4.83/105 and 4.57/105 in female, respectively. The age-standardized incidence was increased by 0.8% per year in male during past 40 years, while there was no change in mortality. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were increased by 1.6% and 1.3% per year in female. After adjusting the effects of diagnosis period and birth cohort, the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer increased by about 11% every 5 years older in both male and female. Diagnosis period and birth cohort had no statistical impact on the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer. Conclusion The age-standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer shows significantly rising trends during 1974-2013 in both male and female in Changning district of Shanghai, as well as the age-standardized mortality in female. The incidence and mortality rates also increase with age.

Secular trends of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in changning district of shanghai, 1973-2013 / 肿瘤

Objective: To analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013. Methods: Using the data from Shanghai Cancer Registry, the crude rates of incidence and mortality, and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were calculated for ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013. Joinpoint software was utilized to analyze the secular trends of incidence and mortality, as well as to calculate the annual percent changes (APCs) and average annual percent changes (AAPCs). Age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the contributions of age, period and cohort effects on the secular trends of incidence and mortality. Results: Total of 936 new incidence cases and 504 deaths in the Changning district of Shanghai were identified during 1973-2013. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 8.72/105, 6.32/105 and 6.00/105, respectively. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were 4.70/105, 2.99/105 and 2.92/105, respectively. The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population of ovarian cancer showed steady rising trends during 1973-2013, by an average of 2.96%, 1.51% and 1.63% per year, respectively. The crude mortality rate increased by an average of 2.53% per year, but the secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population were not significant (both P > 0.05). Age-period-cohort analysis showed that both the incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer increased with age (both P 0.05). Conclusion: The crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population, and crude mortality rate of ovarian cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai show steady rising trends during 1973-2013. The secular trends of age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and Segi’s world standard population are not significant. Both the incidence and mortality rates increased with age, suggesting the elderly women are key population for the prevention of ovarian cancer. ovarian cancer.

Trends and future burden of tobacco-related cancers incidence in Delhi urban areas: 1988�12

Introduction: Tobacco products are the major contributors for various cancers and other diseases. In India, tobacco-related cancers (TRCs) contribute nearly half of the total cancers in males and one-fifth in females. Objective: The objective of the study is to investigate 25-year trends and projection of TRCs for 2018�22. Methods: Joinpoint analysis was performed to assess the trends of TRCs on world age-adjusted rates. Age-period-cohort model with power link function was performed to project the future incidence burden of TRCs in urban Delhi. Results: During the 25 years, a total of 67,129 TRCs (53,125 males and 14,004 females) were registered which was 25.4% of total cancer cases registered. Males contributed 39.1% and females 10.8% of total cases. In males, TRCs declined significantly from 1988 to 2003 with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = ?0.91% and thereafter increasing trend was observed with EAPC = 3.42%, while in females, the EAPC values were 2.2% and 3.54% respectively for the same period. The total burden of TRCs will be doubled in 2018�22 with around 46% change due to cancer risk and around 54% due to population age and size in both the genders. The average annual count in males will be 7310 in 2018�22 as compared to 3571 in 2008�12 while in females this count will be increased to 2066 from 955 based on recent slope. Conclusion: The incidence of TRCs is increasing due to increase in population age, size, and factors other than population. TRCs are the preventable cancers, and load of these cancers can be controlled with strictly adhering the policy and acts.

Incidence and mortality trends of female breast cancer in Changning district of Shanghai, 1973-2013 / 肿瘤

Objective: To explore the long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013. Methods: Using the data of female breast cancer which were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer Registry and the population data which were obtained from the Changning District Bureau of Public Security, the crude rates and the world population-standardized rates of incidence and mortality of female breast cancer were calculated. Joinpoint analysis was conducted to analyze the trend changes and to estimate the annual percent changes of incidence and mortality rates. Furthermore, the age-period-cohort model was performed to further investigate the effects of age, diagnosis period and birth cohort on the secular trends of breast cancer incidence and mortality. Results: From 1973 to 2013, 5 365 female cases were newly diagnosed with breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai, the crude incidence rate was 49.98/100 000; at the same time, 1 589 female cases were dead of breast cancer, the crude mortality rate was 14.80/100 000. For age-standardized rates, the significant increasing trends of incidence and mortality rates of female breast cancer were observed (both P < 0.05). The annual percent changes of agestandardized incidence and mortality rates were 2.69% and 1.39%. Both the diagnosis period and birth cohort had impacts on the incidence trend of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai (both P < 0.01), and the change of mortality trend was almost attributed to the effect of birth cohort (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Changning District of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013 showed an upward trend. So the prevention and treatment of female breast cancer should be strengthened, and the healthy life style should be advocated by the related health department.

Mortality of patients with hepatobiliary malignant tumors in Yangpu District, Shanghai, 1974?2015 / 第二军医大学学报

Objective To analyze the mortality and influencing factors of hepatobiliary cancer patients using the death data of hepatobiliary malignant tumors of Yangpu District, Shanghai, from 1974 to 2015. Methods Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the mortality trend of hepatobiliary cancer. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to evaluate the effects of age and cohort factors on the mortality rate of hepatobiliary cancer. Results From 1974 to 2015, a total of 9 866 liver cancer deaths were reported in Yangpu District, with a male to female ratio of 2.7:1; and the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were 23.09/100 000 and 18.87/100 000, respectively. A total of 2 173 biliary tract cancer deaths were reported, with a male to female ratio of 1:1.7; and the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate were 5.04/100 000 and 3.82/100 000, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer decreased from 1974 to 2015, while that of biliary tract cancer increased. In APC model, the overall mortality risk of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer increased with the increase of age. The mortality rates of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer were increased in the population born before 1930. The mortality rates of the male liver cancer and the male and female biliary tract cancer were decreased in the population born between 1930 and 1949. The mortality rate of liver cancer was increased in the females born after 1949. Conclusion From 1974 to 2015, the mortality rate of liver cancer has a decreasing trend in Yangpu District, Shanghai, and the mortality rate of male is higher than that of female. The mortality rate of biliary tract cancer shows an increasing trend, and the mortality rate of female is higher than that of male. The mortality rates of liver cancer and biliary tract cancer associated with aging factors have increased. Exposure factors have a consistent effect on liver cancer and biliary tract cancer, which may be related to socioeconomic factors at that time.

Mortality trend and age-period-cohort analysis of colorectal cancer among residents in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 1975 to 2014 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To describe the 40-years trend for the mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Shanghai and to estimate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort with Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model.@*Methods@#Data on tumor-releated death from 1975 Janurary 1 to 2014 December 31 was derived from the Yangpu District of Shanghai Center for Diseases Prevention and Control tumor registration system. Colonrectal cancer cases (C18.2-C18.9 and C20 in ICD10) were selected for analyses. Crude mortality, age-adjusted mortality, and Average Annual Percent Changes (AAPCs) were calculated for colon cancer and rectal cancer. The difference of AAPCs between male/female and different age groups were tested. An APC model (reference cohort and period were 1900 and 1975, respectively) was constructed to estimate the age-effect, period-effect, and cohort-effect on the colorectal cancer death.@*Results@#During 1975-2014, 6 725 cases died of colorectal cancer (the cased of colon and rectal cancer were 3 684 and 3 041, respectively). The crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of colon cancer was 8.83/100 000 and 6.76/100 000, respectively. The crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of rectal cancer were 7.32/100 000 and 5.67/100 000, respectively. For population in Yangpu District, the crude mortality and age-adjusted mortality of colon cancer increased with time, and the crude mortality of rectal cancer increased with time (P<0.001). AAPC of the crude mortality rate (5.6%) and age-adjusted mortality rate (2.3%) of colon cancer were higher than those in rectal cancer (3.0% and -0.3%), respectively (both P values <0.001). AAPC of the crude mortality rate (males vs. females was 6.2% vs. 5.0%, P<0.05) and age-adjusted mortality rate (males vs. females was 2.7% vs. 1.7%, P<0.05) of colon cancer were higher in males than in females. APC model indicted that CRC-related death increased with age. During 1901 to 1941, the RR values of cohort effects for colon and rectal cancer death were 1.09-5.57 and from 1.04-2.28, respectively; During 1946 to 1991, the RR values of cohort effects for colon cancer and rectal cancer were 5.51-4.32 and 2.16-0.89.@*Conclusion@#From 1975 to 2014, the mortality of CRC in Yangpu District increased gradually, and colon cancer mortality in males increased faster than that in females. The risk of death from colorectal cancer in the 1946-1991 birth cohort declined.

The Effect of Population Ageing on Healthcare Expenditure in Korea: From the Perspective of ‘Healthy Ageing’ Using Age-Period-Cohort Analysis / 보건행정학회지

BACKGROUND: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. METHODS: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. RESULTS: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show ‘healthy ageing’ phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of −1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%–1.80% in healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSION: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, ‘healthy ageing effect’ suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Incidence and Mortality Rate of Cervical Cancer in Korea / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지

PURPOSE: This study was conducted to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer among ≥ 20-year-old women from 1993 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Statistical Information Service. Age-standardized rates were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends in the incidence and mortality rate. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period and cohort. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 32.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 15.9 per 100,000 in 2012 (annual percent change [APC], –3.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], –4.2% to –3.6%). The mortality rate decreased from 5.2 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, –4.8%; 95% CI, –5.1% to –4.4%); however, the incidence and mortality rates among young women (< 30 years old) increased. An age-period-cohort model of the incidence and mortality rate showed decreasing period effects between 1993 and 2008 and decreasing cohort effects between 1928 and 1973, while birth cohorts after 1973 exhibited slight increases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer. CONCLUSION: Recent decreases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer were due to decreases in the period and cohort effects, which reflect the implementation of a cancer screening program and changes in lifestyle. However, our findings also highlighted an increase in cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate among young women born after 1973.

The changing landscape of religious affiliation in Brazil between 1980 and 2010: age, period, and cohort perspectives / /Um estudo sobre a filiação religiosa no Brasil entre 1980 e 2010: efeitos de idade, período e coorte / /El cambio de panorama de las afiliaciones religiosas en Brasil entre 1980 y 2010: perspectivas de edad, período y cohorte

There has been a remarkable decline in the number of Catholics in Brazil over the last few decades, a fact that is attributed to the growth of Pentecostal churches and to an increase in the number of people with no religious affiliation. We analyzed the age, period, and cohort effects associated with religious affiliation in Brazil from 1980 to 2010, applying the Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort and Cross-Classified Random Effects Model. We observed that age effects were significant but low for Catholics and Pentecostals, and were substantial for those with no religious affiliation, with a negative relationship. For these first two religious affiliations, period effects were of greater magnitude with clear trends: negative for Catholics and positive for Pentecostals. Cohort effects were significant for all three affiliations, but magnitudes were lower than the other two effects. We also verified that the likelihood of being a Pentecostal decreased with formal education, and the opposite occurred for persons with no religious affiliation. These effects, however, were smaller for younger cohorts, possibly due to the reduced social selectivity of recent students pursuing higher education and the increase in overall levels of education...

Houve uma marcante redução no número relativo de católicos no Brasil nas últimas décadas, fato que é associado, principalmente, ao crescimento das igrejas pentecostais e neopentecostais, bem como ao aumento no número de pessoas sem filiação religiosa. Foram analisados os efeitos de idade, período e coorte associados à filiação religiosa no Brasil entre 1980 e 2010, com o uso do modelo idade-período-coorte hierárquico e modelos de efeitos randômicos com classificação-cruzada. Observaram-se efeitos de idade significativos, mas de pequena magnitude para católicos e pentecostais, e efeitos substanciais para aqueles sem filiação religiosa, sendo essa com uma relação negativa. Para as duas primeiras afiliações, os efeitos de período eram de maior magnitude e com tendências claras: negativa para católicos e positiva para pentecostais. Os efeitos de coorte foram significativos para as três afiliações, mas as magnitudes foram menores do que para dos dois outros efeitos. Também verificou-se que a propensão em ser pentecostal diminui com o nível de educação, sendo que o contrário ocorre para pessoas sem religião. Entretanto, esses efeitos são menos marcantes para coortes mais jovens, possivelmente por causa da natureza menos seletiva da educação superior atualmente no Brasil e do aumento generalizado dos níveis de educação...

Ha ocurrido una notable reducción en el número de católicos en Brasil en las últimas décadas, un hecho que se atribuye al crecimiento de las iglesias pentecostales y un aumento del número de personas sin afiliación religiosa. Analizamos los efectos de edad, período y cohortes asociadas a las afiliaciones religiosas en Brasil desde 1980 hasta 2010, aplicando modelos Jerárquico de Edad-Período-Cohorte y de Efecto Aleatorio de Clasificación Cruzada. Observamos que los efectos de edad fueron significativos pero de baja magnitud para católicos y pentecostales, mientras fueron sustanciales para aquellos sin afiliación religiosa, con una relación negativa. Para las dos primeras afiliaciones religiosas, los efectos de período fueron de mayor magnitud y presentaron tendencias claras: negativas para los católicos y positivas para los pentecostales. Los efectos de cohorte fueron significativos para todas las tres afiliaciones, pero las magnitudes fueron menores que los otros dos efectos. También verificamos que la propensión a ser pentecostal se reduce con la educación formal, y lo opuesto ocurrió con las personas sin afiliación religiosa. Sin embargo, tales efectos fueron menores para cohortes más jóvenes, posiblemente debido a la reducción de la selectividad social de estudiantes recientes en búsqueda de una educación más alta y al aumento general en todos los niveles de educación...

Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: An Age-period-cohort Analysis / 예방의학회지

OBJECTIVES: Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. METHODS: We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. RESULTS: All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. CONCLUSIONS: The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

Comparação entre metodologias de idade-período-coorte para o estudo de uma medida da progressão escolar no Brasil / A comparison between age-period-cohort methodologies for an indicator of school progression in Brazil / Comparación entre metodologías de edad-período-cohorte para el estudio de una medición de la progresión escolar en Brasil

Este artigo procura realizar um exercício de comparação metodológica de dois estimadores dos modelos idade-período-coorte: o estimador convencional obtido pelos modelos lineares generalizados restritos (MLGR); e o estimador intrínseco (EI). O objeto de interesse são as contribuições dos efeitos de idade, período e coorte nas mudanças temporais na probabilidade de progressão (PPS) para a 5ª série do ensino fundamental das mulheres brasileiras. A modelagem IPC se justifica uma vez que os efeitos de idade, período e coorte podem impactar de forma significativa a probabilidade de progressão escolar: efeitos de idade refletem tanto a idade mínima de entrada no sistema de ensino como também o dilema entre trabalho e estudo que surge ao longo da carreira educacional; efeitos de período estão associados às diferentes conjunturas econômica e política, bem como ao estado das políticas educacionais; por fim, efeitos de coorte refletem características sociais peculiares a determinados grupos de indivíduos. Os dois instrumentais foram contrapostos em termos da eficiência, significância e estimativa dos parâmetros. Os resultados revelam a potencialidade da solução para o modelo IPC baseada no estimador intrínseco, o qual apresenta parâmetros com variância inferior aos estimados pelo modelo linear generalizado restrito. Desta forma, projeções das PPS baseadas na extrapolação do erro-padrão dos parâmetros obtidos pelo estimador intrínseco podem ser promissoras.

The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative methodological essay of two estimators of age-period-cohort models: the conventional estimator obtained by the generalized linear restricted models (MLGR) and the so-called intrinsic estimator (EI). The objects are contributions of age, period and cohort effects to temporal changes in the progression probability to the 5th grade of elementary school for Brazilian women. The APC modeling is justified because age, period and cohort effects may significantly affect the probability of grade progression: age effects reflect both the minimal age of school entry and the trade-off between study and work; period effects are associated with different economical and political conjunctures, as well as with current educational policies; finally, cohort effects reflect social attributes unique to a group. Both are juxtaposed in terms of the efficiency, significance and parameter estimates. The results reveal the potentiality of the solution to the age-period-cohort model based on intrinsic estimator, which presents parameters with smaller variance than those estimated from generalized linear restricted models. Therefore, projections of grade progression probabilities based on the extrapolation of standard errors of the intrinsic estimator can be promising.

El objetivo de este artículo es realizar un ejercicio de comparación metodológica de dos estimadores de los modelos edad-período-cohorte: el estimador convencional, obtenido por los modelos lineales generalizados restringidos (MLGR), y el estimador intrínseco (EI). El objeto de estudio es la contribución de los efectos de edad, período y cohorte en los cambios temporales dentro de la probabilidad de progresión (PPS) en el 5º curso de la Enseñanza Fundamental de las mujeres brasileñas. El modelo IPC se justifica, ya que los efectos de edad, período y cohorte pueden impactar de forma significativa en la probabilidad de progresión escolar: los efectos de edad se reflejan tanto en la edad mínima de entrada en el sistema de enseñanza, como también en el dilema entre trabajo y estudio que surge a lo largo de la carrera educacional; los efectos del período están asociados a las diferentes coyunturas económicas y políticas, así como al estado de las políticas educacionales; finalmente, los efectos de cohorte reflejan características sociales peculiares de determinados grupos de individuos. Los dos instrumentos fueron contrapuestos en términos de eficiencia, significancia y estimativa de los parámetros. Los resultados de este artículo revelan la potencialidad de una solución para el modelo de IPC basado en el estimador intrínseco, el cual presenta parámetros con variancia inferior a los estimados por el modelo lineal generalizado restringido. De esta forma, proyecciones de las PPS, basadas en la extrapolación del error-padrón de los parámetros obtenidos por el estimador intrínseco, pueden ser prometedoras.

Breast cancer mortality in mexico: an age-period-cohort analysis / Mortalidad por cáncer de mama en méxico: un análisis de edad-periodo-cohorte

OBJECTIVE: To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford. RESULTS: Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades. CONCLUSIONS: Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar efectos de edad-periodo-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de mama (CaMa) en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Las tendencias de los efectos de edad-periodo-cohorte fueron estimados mediante un modelo de regresión de Poisson propuesto por Holford. RESULTADOS: Las tasas de mortalidad por CaMa se han estabilizado en la mayoría de los grupos de edad desde 1995 y están determinadas principalmente por efectos de cohorte y edad. Las mujeres nacidas entre 1940 y 1955 muestran los mayores aumentos en la mortalidad en comparación con las nacidas después de este período. La mamografía y la terapia adyuvante han tenido un impacto limitado sobre la mortalidad. Se discuten posibles explicaciones de las tendencias observadas. En las siguientes décadas se espera continúe aumentando la mortalidad por CaMa. CONCLUSIONES: El acceso a mamografía y a tratamiento oportuno y efectivo debieran ser una prioridad para revertir la tendencia creciente esperada de la mortalidad por CM.