Résumé
Objective To establish a new model of indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test combined with total bilirubin actual resident rate (TBARR) for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) treated with artificial liver support system (ALSS) therapy. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 136 patients with HBV-ACLF who underwent ALSS therapy in Department of Infectious Diseases, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, from June 2017 to July 2021, and according to the prognosis at 3-month follow-up, they were divided into survival group with 92 patients and death group with 44 patients. Related indicators were measured at the time of the confirmed diagnosis of ACLF, including biochemical parameters, coagulation, indocyanine green retention rate at 15 minutes (ICGR 15 ), and effective hepatic blood flow (EHBF), and related indices were calculated, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, MELD difference (ΔMELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, total bilirubin clearance rate (TBCR), total bilirubin rebound rate (TBRR), and TBARR. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. A binary logistic regression analysis was used to establish a combined predictive model for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF after ALSS therapy. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to compare the accuracy of various models in judging the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF after ALSS therapy, and the Z test was used for comparison of AUC. Results There were significant differences between the death group and the survival group in MELD score, ΔMELD, CTP score, ICGR 15 , EHBF, TBRR, TBARR, neutrophil count, percentage of neutrophils, lymphocyte count, platelet count, alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, total bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time, international normalized ratio, prothrombin time activity, prealbumin, fibrinogen, serum sodium, age, and the incidence rate of hepatic encephalopathy (all P 80%. Conclusion The combined predictive model established by ICGR 15 and TBARR has a good value for in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF after ALSS therapy, and the combined predictive model has a better accuracy than the single model in judging prognosis.
Résumé
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of abnormal 15-minute retention rate of indocyanine green (ICG R15) (≥10%) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and to construct a nomogram model, and to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the nomogram model.Methods:The clinical data of 190 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in Zhengzhou University People's Hospital from December 2017 to June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 148 males and 42 females, aged (57.8±9.9) years. According to ICG R15, the patients were divided into ICG R15 normal group ( n=134, ICG R15<10%) and ICG R15 abnormal group ( n=56, ICG R15≥10%). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of abnormal ICG R15, and the nomogram model was established. The predictive ability of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and C-index, and the model was verified by calibration curve and decision analysis curve. Results:Abnormal ICG R15 group the proportion of liver cirrhosis, albumin ≤35 g/L, hemoglobin ≤110 g/L, platelet count ≤100×10 9/L, prothrombin time >13 s, alanine aminotransferase >40 U/L, aspartate aminotransferase >40 U/L, total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L, and the largest tumor diameter >5.0 cm, spleen volume >383.1 cm 3, spleen volume to of non-tumor liver volume (SNLR) >0.276 and liver tumor volume >117.2 cm 3 were higher than that of ICG R15 normal group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that liver cirrhosis ( OR=3.89, 95% CI: 1.28-11.80, P=0.016), spleen volume >383.1 cm 3( OR=5.17, 95% CI: 1.38-19.38, P=0.015), SNLR >0.276 ( OR=5.54, 95% CI: 1.44-21.26, P=0.013) and total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L( OR=10.20, 95% CI: 1.88-55.39, P=0.007) increased the risk of abnormal ICG R15. A nomogram model was constructed based on the above risk factors. The C-index of the model was 0.915 (95% CI: 0.872-0.957), and the area under the ROC curve predicted by the nomogram model was 0.915 (95% CI: 0.871-0.958). The calibration curve showed that the correlation index of the abnormal ICG R15 predicted by the nomogram was similar to actual situation. Decision analysis curve showed high returns. Conclusion:Liver cirrhosis, spleen volume >383.1 cm 3, SNLR>0.276 and total bilirubin >34.2 μmol/L were indepentlent risk factors for abnormal ICG R15 in patients with hepatocellur carcinoma. The clinical prediction model of ICG R15 abnormality constructed by nomogram has good prediction efficiency, which can provide a reference for evaluating preoperative liver reserve function of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.
Résumé
Background: Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) score and Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are used commonly to assess the prognosis of liver disease but the disadvantage of these static tests is their inability to identify the functional reserve of the liver. Among all quantitative liver function tests indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test is most widely used and has been used to determine operative risk before hepatectomy and to assess prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. Aim: To correlate indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test with MELD score in patients with cirrhosis of liver. Methods: Forty patients with cirrhosis of liver were included and divided into two groups according to their CTP scores. Group A had 20 patients with CTP class A and group B had 20 patients with CTP class B. After ICG injection, ICG retention at 15 minutes (ICGR15) and ICG clearance rate were calculated. Results: In group A, the mean ICGR15 was 32.86% + 6.4% while in group B it was 51.08% + 12.8% (p <0.001). ICG clearance rates were 4.3% + 2.8% and 3.5% + 3.8% per minute in group A and B respectively. MELD score had a strong positive correlation with ICGR15 but a negative correlation with ICG clearance rate. On ROC curve analysis, AUC for MELD was 0.805 vs. 0.88 for ICGR15 in assessing prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. The sensitivity and specificity of MELD score was 60% and 80% respectively while that of ICGR15 was 85% and 90% respectively. Conclusion: ICGR15 has a higher sensitivity and specificity than MELD score in assessing the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis of liver.