Trend predication on incidence of occupational noise-induced deafness by ARIMA model / 中国职业医学

OBJECTIVE: To explore the application of the autoregressive integrated moving average model( ARIMA model)in predicting incidence of occupational noise-induced deafness( ONID). METHODS: The ARIMA model was established and validated based on the number of new onset ONID cases in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2015. Then the ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of new onset ONID cases from 2016 to 2020. RESULTS: The number of new ONID cases in Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2015 showed an exponential growth trend. The optimal model fitted with the number of new onset ONID cases from 2006 to 2015 was the ARIMA( 2,2,2) model,which better match the number of new onset ONID cases from 2008 to 2015. According to the ARIMA( 2,2,2) model,the number of new onset ONID cases in Guangdong Province will continue to have a rapidly increasing trend from 2016 to 2020. CONCLUSION: The ARIMA model based on time series matches the time trend of ONID onset,and it can be used for the prediction of ONID incidence trend.