RÉSUMÉ
Objective To explore the risk factors of supplementary injection after foam sclerotherapy for varicose veins of lower extremities and its impact on blood coagulation function.Methods A total of 185 patients with varicose veins of lower limbs diagnosed in the First People's Hospital of Zunyi from January 2018 to December 2021 were selected.The corresponding pathological data were collected,and the D-dimer,thrombin time,and fibrinogen level of patients were detected 1 d before and 1 d after the surgery.The postoperative video phone follow-up lasted until 6 months after the surgery.The patients were divided into single treatment group and supple-mentary treatment group according to whether supplementary injection of foam sclerosing agent was needed during the follow-up.Propensity matching on the data between the two groups was conducted,and the correlation between disease course data,coagulation factors,and the occurrence of supplementary injection was analyzed.A time series model for the incidence of supplementary injection was established,and the therapeutic effect and complica-tions were observed.Results After propensity matching,there was still significant difference in the degree of lesion between the two groups(P<0.05).On the first day after surgery,there was significant difference in the D-dimer and fibrinogen groups between the two groups(P<0.05),and but no significant difference in thrombin time(P>0.05).The occurrence of supplementary injection was significantly correlated with D-dimer,fibrinogen,thrombin time,and first-time injection dose(P<0.05),and the incidence of supplementary injection was higher in patients who received first-time injection in January,August,September,and December.Both groups achieved successful treatment 6 months after surgery,and there was no significant difference in the incidence of compli-cations.Conclusion Patients with lower limb varicose veins of C3/C4 are more likely to require supplementary injection compared to patients with other levels.The level of D-dimer and fibrinogen at 1 d after surgery is positively correlated with the occurrence of supplementary injection,while the dose of the first injection is negatively corre-lated with the occurrence of supplementary injection.
RÉSUMÉ
Background: Road traffic accidents (RTA) pose a significant socio-economic burden and global public health concern. Monitoring road safety initiatives' efficacy necessitates analysing RTA incidence. This study examines time zone-specific RTA mortality in Kerala state, India, from 2016 to 2021. Methods: Utilizing compiled secondary-level time series data, the study encompasses total RTA fatalities in Kerala from 2016 to 2021. Data includes fatalities per year in nine consecutive three-hour time periods. Exploratory data analysis, time series regression, and exponential smoothing were employed for analysis. Results: Data reveals fluctuating trends in road accident (RA) fatalities, peaking in 2018 with a notable decrease in 2020. 18:00 to 21:00 recorded the highest and lowest fatalities, total 901 deaths. Disproportionate RA fatalities occurred from 06:00 to 09:00 (527 deaths) and 15:00 to 18:00 (697.5 deaths). The study employs Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for short-term forecasting, with a mean absolute scaled error (MASE) less than 1 signifying accurate predictions. Conclusions: The analysis highlights temporal patterns, emphasizing 18:00 to 21:00 as critical. Holt-Winters exponential smoothing proves vital for accurate short-term forecasting, with MASE reflecting precision. Urgency is stressed in adopting targeted measures for time-specific road accidents. Government intervention is pivotal, advocating for improved infrastructure, enhanced driver education, efficient vehicle management, and sustained traffic enforcement. Tailoring traffic laws to time zones, coupled with forecasting techniques, aligns with the overarching goal of enhancing road safety and reducing RA mortality rates.
RÉSUMÉ
Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the CFR and RDR of COVID-19 disease during the second wave in Bangladesh and also intended to predict the trend of COVID-19 infected and death cases, case fatality rate (CFR) and recovery-to-death ratio (RDR) using Facebook Prophet Model (FPM). Methods: Daily time series data of COVID-19 cases for 512 days used in this study was taken from worldometer. The FPM was used to predict the daily infections, deaths, CFR, and RDR of COVID-19 disease in Bangladesh as of August 01, 2021. Results: About 71% male and 29% female people were infected, most susceptible age group to be infected was 21 to 30 (27.6%) and below 10 (2.9%) was the least infected group as of August 01, 2021. The oldest age group (>60) was the most endanger to death (55.2%) and the youngest (<10) was the least death (0.3%) age group. Overall CFR was found at 1.654% which is less than the world CFR (2.13%) on August 01, 2021. The RDR was estimated at 52.269 which is below the world RDR 42.36 on August 01, 2021, in Bangladesh. Predicted infections and deaths exhibited an upward trend, daily CFR designates roughly constant trend, and daily RDR indicates a downward trend in Bangladesh at this ongoing second wave. Conclusion: The male people are more prone to be infected and dead. The oldest age group is more threatened to death and the youngest is least due to COVID-19 in Bangladesh. Both the predicted infections and deaths increasing, daily CFRs are roughly constant and daily RDR is decreasing in the second wave in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Objetivos: Este estudo teve como objetivo estimar o CFR e RDR da doença COVID-19 durante a segunda onda em Bangladesh e também prever a tendência de casos de infecção e morte por COVID-19, taxa de letalidade (CFR) e taxa de mortalidade de recuperação (RDR) usando o Facebook Prophet Model (FPM). Métodos: Dados de séries temporais diárias dos casos COVID-19 para 512 dias usados neste estudo foram retirados do worldometer. O FPM foi usado para prever as infecções diárias, mortes, CFR e RDR da doença COVID-19 em Bangladesh a partir de 01 de agosto de 2021. Resultados: Cerca de 71% dos homens e 29% das mulheres estavam infectados. A faixa etária mais suscetível a ser infectada era de 21 a 30 (27,6%) e abaixo de 10 (2,9%) era o grupo menos infectado em 01 de agosto de 2021. O mais velho A faixa etária (> 60) era a que apresentava maior risco de morte (55,2%) e a mais jovem (<10) era a com menor risco de morte (0,3%). O CFR geral foi encontrado em 1,654%, que é menor do que o CFR mundial (2,13%) em 01 de agosto de 2021. O RDR foi estimado em 52,269, que está abaixo do RDR mundial de 42,36 em 01 de agosto de 2021, em Bangladesh. As infecções e mortes previstas exibiram uma tendência ascendente, o CFR diário indica uma tendência quase constante e o RDR diário indica uma tendência descendente em Bangladesh nesta segunda onda em curso. Conclusão: Os homens são mais propensos a serem infectados e mortos. A faixa etária mais velha está mais ameaçada de morte e a mais jovem é a menos devido ao COVID-19 em Bangladesh. Tanto as infecções previstas quanto as mortes aumentam, os CFRs diários são quase constantes e o RDR diário está diminuindo na segunda onda em Bangladesh devido à pandemia de COVID-19.